UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (7/11)

You guys are underestimating Davey grant smh acting like he ain’t there to win. He beat chito and chito way better than day will ever be.

I see odds opened at evens but the public betting day so grant a average of +135 . Sign me up

U think Davey grant just wants 1/2 of his paycheck.. it’s gon come down to who ever is meaner
 
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Anyone else think Leonardo Santos KO/TKO at 6.0 is silly value?

I know Bogatov likes to go to the ground, but Santos has underrated power AND get ups
While undefeated in the UFC, Santos is a full 40 years old now. Put that together with an undefeated 10-0 making his ufc debut. Undefeated guy the underdog and he’s my pick
 
Probably Volk

Every other fight I can see going either way
Nobody should ever lay -200 on a hollaway opponent I mean he’s 1 of the 2 goats of the division! (I’d lay -200 If he fought Conor or Khabib tho)... volk edged every round the first fight, max didn’t have his edge and trying to really win it, atleast in the first half bc he tried picking it up in the later stages.

Max is a smart fighter so I think he will use his size to his advantage and have a faster start to the fight. He has good cardio and no doh f he prolly worked a lot on it in quarantine.

Max ML all day
 
Fun Parlay:
  • Volkan Oezdemir | ML | 1.60
  • Rose Namajunas* | DEC | 2.78
  • Petr Yan vs Jose Aldo | Over 2.5 | 1.51
  • Alex Volkanovski | ML | 1.43
  • Kamaru Usman* | DEC | 2.49
_____________________________________________
Total: 23.91

Been busy all week and haven't had a chance to look at odds this week at all.

Just did some quick research here and this is what I saw while just messing around on Bovada...

Rose vs. Andrade going the distance (-135) : I see Rose winning a decision here. Jessica is durable. Rose looked good against Jessica in their first fight before the slam. I see her winning a decision this time around and it is a 3 rounder as well.

Yan vs. Aldo going past 3 rounds (-125): I see Yan possibly getting a finish in the 4th or 5th or possibly winning on points.

Usman winning via decision (+135) : I see Usman being able to grind Masvidal out for a decision here. Might hedge this here tho.

PARLAY 20 TO WIN $127.29

Let me know what you guys think and if you have any other picks you feel are great value! Looking to place a few more bets tonight.

Parlay on Bovada I've been messing with.
Let me know your thoughts...

Oezdemir ML (-155)
- Don't know too much about the guy he's fighting but sounds like this is a BIG step up for him. Oezdemir is no joke.

Rose by DEC (+130)
- Rose was doing great up until the slam. Jessica is very durable and tough though. I see Rose outpointing her.

Usman by DEC (+150)
- I just see Usman being able to grind Masvidal out. Might hedge though just to be safe.

Yan vs. Aldo goes past 3 rounds (-125)
- I got Yan here, and if Yan does finish Aldo, I see it being in the 4th or 5th. Yan winning a decision wouldn't surprise me either.

RISK $20 TO WIN $320

BOL everybody!

Great minds think alike <seedat>
 
I'm not a big dog but I usually wager about 500 to 1000 per event. I mostly play straight lines and two leg parlays. However the degen in my always throws about $50 bucks spread on two legs insane prop parlays that i can make a mortgage payment on. I hit one last event for $10 for $2400 return (posted pic) and I hit about 4-5 per year. Here's what I am round robbing for this event:

1) oezdemir wins by sub +1700
2) tybura wins by sub +1450
3) rose/andrade draw +6000
4) holloway in rds 4 and 5 +3150 and +3700
5) pvz inside +1150 (least likley)

These $5 to $10 flyers hit for anywhere from $1000 to $ 18,000..
 
While undefeated in the UFC, Santos is a full 40 years old now. Put that together with an undefeated 10-0 making his ufc debut. Undefeated guy the underdog and he’s my pick

to bet bogatov you are basically counting on santos being completely over the hill. it's possible, but also possible he's absolutely fine like trinaldo or glover.
 
Nobody should ever lay -200 on a hollaway opponent I mean he’s 1 of the 2 goats of the division! (I’d lay -200 If he fought Conor or Khabib tho)... volk edged every round the first fight, max didn’t have his edge and trying to really win it, atleast in the first half bc he tried picking it up in the later stages.

Max is a smart fighter so I think he will use his size to his advantage and have a faster start to the fight. He has good cardio and no doh f he prolly worked a lot on it in quarantine.

Max ML all day
I'm gonna live bet anyways

Unless I see something people arent seeing

But obviously we all know what max and volk are capable of, they literally just fought
 
If you are going to bet on Volkan Oezdemir you might as well pick him to win by TKO. His opponent Jiri is a first round knockout artist that has only gone to the scorecard twice in 29 fights. Volkan is a far superior striker and has a good chance to knock him out in the first round, but if this goes to the second round Jiri is going to gas at which point Volkan will have a wide opening to just knock him out. Jiri is definitely capable of getting first round KOs of other UFC Light Heavyweights, but not the #7 ranked former title contender in his debut fight.
Sounds like wikicapping here
 
Love me some long shot parlays and have hit several before, so for 251 I'll be playing Ribas/Salikhov/Yan/Leonardo Santos all ITD. 32 dollars and change to return almost 700 dollars.

Only really concerned about Salikhov being out pointed by the slippery Dos Santos, as Salikhov really does seem to take his foot off the gas after 2. I still think he has the power and durability to duplicate what we recently saw The Leech do though. As talented as Dos Santos is I would call his durability only average. People don't mention it much but Griffin rattled Dos Santos pretty good. Salikhov might not be the most well rounded fighter in the UFC but that right hand is nuclear.

Anyone have any thoughts/input?
 
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I know but in your previous post you indicated you might switch because you didnt feel good about max and was going to just hedge w volk

Ah that makes sense now. Thanks
 
This is doubly true when talking about a multi leg parlay like what that guy has. You are not adding much profit by having it as a leg in a 6 or 7 leg parlay with those odds. And if a fluke happens and lo wins and you hit all the other legs...

There is a psychological aspect to betting that people don't take into account. Yes, the best bettors put emotion aside and don't get too high or low with wins and losses. But barring a VERY select few, most cannot fully remove emotion from it. We are human. The psychological cost/benefit of having at -750 fighter in a 6 leg parlay with a bunch of -1xx and -2xx totally skews toward cost.

Do I think Ribas steamrolls PVZ? Yep, sure do. Would I add her to that parlay? Hell no at -750.

absolute insanity that people do this.
I remember having a 6 or 7 leg parlay last year that ended with the pats ML at like -300 against the titans (they of course lost) - I hedged because I’m a pussy but more importantly I learned a lesson. Never put that much juice into a parlay-
 
Aldo vs Yan o 2 1/2 rounds - 200
$180 to win $90

Feeling pretty good about this bet, plan to drop $200 so I am deciding if I want my last 20 to go on a Yan decision prop or finish prop
 
PVZ has a clear path to victory - -800 is absurd
She’s not gonna lock in a sub or knock Ribas out but she could hold her against the cage. Chick looks super strong. PVZ by decision at these odds worth a sprinkle.

If you like Masvidal your natural inclination is TKO but there’s not much of a chance he finishes Usman. 10:1 for a fan friendly fighter to land the harder blows and out strike for 2 or 3 rounds and get a questionable decision victory? Sign me up

Rose has some of the most absurd submissions in the game. +500 was where I got it I think it’s been bet down a bit but I have her clowning Andrade. She made two big mistakes in their last fight. Obviously she got her brain smashed in being the first but the second was not capitalizing on the knockdown in the first round. She made a really bad half hearted attempt to follow her to the ground when she could have just taken mount and locked up one of the 6 thousand subs she has in her arsenal.

Follow me on the degen train boys this parlay pays out 230:1
 
PVZ has a clear path to victory - -800 is absurd
She’s not gonna lock in a sub or knock Ribas out but she could hold her against the cage. Chick looks super strong. PVZ by decision at these odds worth a sprinkle.

If you like Masvidal your natural inclination is TKO but there’s not much of a chance he finishes Usman. 10:1 for a fan friendly fighter to land the harder blows and out strike for 2 or 3 rounds and get a questionable decision victory? Sign me up

Rose has some of the most absurd submissions in the game. +500 was where I got it I think it’s been bet down a bit but I have her clowning Andrade. She made two big mistakes in their last fight. Obviously she got her brain smashed in being the first but the second was not capitalizing on the knockdown in the first round. She made a really bad half hearted attempt to follow her to the ground when she could have just taken mount and locked up one of the 6 thousand subs she has in her arsenal.

Follow me on the degen train boys this parlay pays out 230:1

I think Pvz dec is the least likely outcome here. She’s not going to just hold ribas against the cage for two rounds. Ribas is better than her literally everywhere.

Ribas was out grappling dern and Randa Markos, both girls who are both technically
better and stronger than Paige.

Paige is not a natural 125er, there’s only two reasons why she’s fighting in that division now.

She was getting manhandled by Rachel ostovich grappling. She’s fortunate ostovich is clueless in armbar defense or else she would’ve gotten dominated for three rounds.

As for Andrade/rose, Andrade is probably going to look to grapple. Rose could not stop her takedowns. And I wouldn’t be so confident that rose will be able to sub Andrade from guard
 
Andrade Dec @ 5.0 - had a bite on this, I think Andrade comes out looking to grapple and Rose probably can't stop the takedowns consistently, may even accept being on her back confident in her guard which could rack up control time for Andrade - I think it's feasible for 2 rounds - personally think that fight ends up a split decision.

Aldo Dec @ 6.5 - very tempting, obviously would be moreso if it was 3 rounds but I don't think Aldo is as shot as people think. He's not the Aldo of old but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Yan finishes him - Aldo hasn't really shown a glass chin and he seemed fine with 135 last fight, he won the second round and arguably won the 3rd.

Yan has been to a decision a fair few times himself, he can push a pace but it's also his first 5 rounder in the UFC - can he push the same pace or will he be more conservative early to save himself for the 4th/5th? Also a big step up in competition compared to Yans previous opponents. I think it could definitely be the case that Yan fights more warily given Aldo has some slick hands and is a fantastic counterstriker.

Aldo may be able to finish Yan and similar for Yan, but both are tough and I think this tends to go deeper than many think - if it does that's going to be due to it being a measured striking affair and I certainly think Aldo could keep it competitive there and pick up rounds. For me Yan probably wins a decision but at these odds I might have a flier on Aldo Dec.

Holloway Dec @ 5.00 - I think this likely goes to a decision. Both are insanely tough and it likely goes to a decision more often than not. I think both will have learnt a lot from their previous fight and I'm expecting another really good technical brawl. I think Max starts faster this time and can win a couple of rounds, I expect it to be close so I'll ride with the big underdog odds if it does go to a decision.
 
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