UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov

Oblivian said:
6+ years ago is not a long time ago? I really don't see how you can say CDF hasn't changed much. His striking has improved drastically since that time. I don't think the CDF that fought in 2014 beats Khabilov, Taisumov, or Pettis honestly. I think CDF has changed a lot, but I'd agree Dariush is the same fighter. If this is a ground fight, I think it's close, but honestly, I see CDF piecing Dariush up on the feet.
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To add to that, he was running his own camps at his gym when they first fought. Been at Fortis for many years now
 
MikeK1989 said:
This is such a great live bet spot imo. Mj might win round one (or KO him in round one) but if Guida can make this a scrappy fight I think he can win this. Im not comparing Guida to Filli but I could see this fight going in a similiar fashion.

MJ is a washed fighter coming off a major knee injury. He seems like the guy whos fighting for money at this point. Dog or pass for me or live bet like I said.
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Mostly agree with you. But I think this is one of those fights where ufc gives a fighter a break and sets them up with an ez win. I think guida is just a human sandbag. He is old but durable. I think mj gets the win by dec.
 
first look:

volkov at -175 looks like a solid bet, i think stylistically he's a bad matchup for the reem, especially in 5 rounds
rodriguez > marques if he's around -180 to -200
MJ/Guida GTD if its +150 or better
Frankie could be a live dog at +350

will have to tape this week
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Really? You think there was value in her pre-fight line of +250?

I didn't bet the fight either way, but this smacks of pure hindsight bias. Ribas took Rodriguez down at will in round 1, and was a mere -1100 favorite after round 1. I passed on Rodriguez at +5XX and had zero regrets, even after the fight.

Rodriguez hit a home-run knockout, something she has literally never done in her UFC career thus far (5 fights, no finishes), let alone against someone like Ribas, who has much better movement and defense than anyone Marina has previously faced.

Just because an underdog hits doesn't necessarily mean there was predictable value in their line.
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well of course there's hindsight bias, but I remember doing my weak form of taping and thinking something along 'she might could', you get me? I wound up betting ribas in my parlay just to play it safe (lol, i bet fucking rountree anyways) but even so, there sure was value in her KO line, which even though was her only path to victory, is listed as +1415 on sportbets and 5dimes (i saw it on bestfightodds archive). that's value for sure, ain't it?
 
MMAOracle said:
Mostly agree with you. But I think this is one of those fights where ufc gives a fighter a break and sets them up with an ez win. I think guida is just a human sandbag. He is old but durable. I think mj gets the win by dec.
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Is that a thing? I remember hearing some analysts saying the same thing when Buckley fought that Italian dude. "This is a gimme fight to help propel Buckley career"

I also heard the same thing last week where Roundtree retired then was offered the Greg Hardy fight. Then "the ufc set him up for an easy fight and bonus situation vs Prachnio"

I actually think coming out of 2020 we might not be seeing or hearing those things anymore considering what Uncle Dana has come out and said - "major cuts". This Mj Guida fight could legit be for a spot on the roster going forward. The ufc isn't interested in paying this old washed up vets as much as they were before Covid.
 
guaton said:
well of course there's hindsight bias, but I remember doing my weak form of taping and thinking something along 'she might could', you get me? I wound up betting ribas in my parlay just to play it safe (lol, i bet fucking rountree anyways) but even so, there sure was value in her KO line, which even though was her only path to victory, is listed as +1415 on sportbets and 5dimes (i saw it on bestfightodds archive). that's value for sure, ain't it?
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The TKO/KO prop does indeed look like value, but on the flipside, I can understand why it wasn't hit hard.

The most relevant question in this case isn't "was this value?" Of course looking back at the exact way the fight ended will yield some insane plus props. Rather, it's "was this predictable?"

In this case...somewhat.

Marina Rodriguez definitely hurt Randa Markos, Jessica Aguilar, and Cynthia Calvillo badly with strikes during her UFC career (not so much Carla Esparza or Tecia Torres), but she wasn't able to finish any of them.

In Amanda Ribas, we're not only talking about someone with much better movement and defense than any of those past opponents, but someone who can take her down at will and avoid all that stand-up unpleasantness.

If we assume Marina was a little unlucky and that she would normally knock out someone the likes of Markos or Calvillo 25% of the time, how low does it go for someone who can take her down any time she pleases who is far more difficult to hit on the feet? Is it 10%? 5%? Hard to say, right?

At 10%, the line is value. At 5%, it's not.

An example of a predictable line was that Pena should be bet hard at big plus numbers after losing the opening round to McMann.

We've literally seen numerous fights where McMann wins or even dominates round 1 only to lose (almost Murphy, Tate, Viera, and especially Reneau) as well as numerous fights where Pena badly loses round 1 and comes back to win (Zingano, Montano). That was absolutely value at +250.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Ugh.



I had 2u on Montano at +170.
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Me too. Looking at Reneau now hoping for better odds. Listened to 2 interviews on youtube, Instagram and appears to be trainng hard for this one. Yana and Raquel both dominated her in the clinch. Hopefully she corrects those mistakes.
 
Richard Cruz said:
Me too. Looking at Reneau now hoping for better odds. Listened to 2 interviews on youtube, Instagram and appears to be trainng hard for this one. Yana and Raquel both dominated her in the clinch. Hopefully she corrects those mistakes.
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I love Reneau. Her story is amazing; a random PE teacher in her 30's who had never done martial arts of any kind, and was simply in good shape and athletic, having played D1 sports in college.

Had she started martial arts when she was young, we might be talking about her as the greatest female fighter ever.

And I happily played Reneau at +200 against Kunitskaya, which was excellent value, since I think she deserved the decision there. However, she was noticeably worse in that fight and then a LOT worse against Pennington. (Which I didn't bet at all due to that very concern)

Her cardio, once quite decent, is now poor, and her striking is much slower, with worse reactions.

It's not a matter of "training hard", either. Reneau always trains hard and is in phenomenal shape. But at 43, the reactions and endurance aren't there anymore.
 
MikeK1989 said:
Is that a thing? I remember hearing some analysts saying the same thing when Buckley fought that Italian dude. "This is a gimme fight to help propel Buckley career"

I also heard the same thing last week where Roundtree retired then was offered the Greg Hardy fight. Then "the ufc set him up for an easy fight and bonus situation vs Prachnio"

I actually think coming out of 2020 we might not be seeing or hearing those things anymore considering what Uncle Dana has come out and said - "major cuts". This Mj Guida fight could legit be for a spot on the roster going forward. The ufc isn't interested in paying this old washed up vets as much as they were before Covid.
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Well MJ is somewhat of a valuable fighter in the UFC because he has some name value. Compared to his fan base, he is greatly underpaid and cheap. UFC has real incentive to keep this guy around for sometime. In addition, as you may or may not know, UFC is NOT interested in the best fighters. Unless you are Khabib, you are either marketable or unmarketable. They are rather interested in promoting and keeping fighters with a fan base. So from this angle, MJ is much more recognizable than Guida. If UFC wanted to give a fair match to MJ, they would have picked someone in the bottom top15 or maybe a gatekeeper. They chose Guida instead.

On this note, grooming someone to have a recognizable name like MJ takes money and time. Just from my observation, UFC wants certain fighters to win. Obviously, this is no guarantee that MJ will win but I want to side with UFC on this one. If MJ loses, this will be a HUUUGE hit for his career. This is seriously a make or break moment for MJ but I think he will pull through because the bar is quite low on this one.

At the end of the day, I just feel that MJ will win. I have my reasons but those are just unimportant biases.

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The major cuts from UFC I think can be understood in this way.
If you are a fighter and you expect a certain paycheck but you do not have the popularity to back it up, we will fire you if you been losing.
If you are a fighter and your are a good value, meaning your pay is lowered than your name value, then we will keep you.

UFC cut is obviously coming and it is real. Yoel got laid off, I mean WTF. This guy is soooo good. So it is really not about the skills but rather if the fighter is willing to be somewhat shortchanged.
 
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Value on Edgar dec +500 and guida dec +310

really don’t like playing these lines this far out but whatever.

I like overeem but would be a lot more comfortable betting him in a 3 rounder.

Econoreem was lucky Sakai gassed worse than he did. If he employs the same strategy against volkov he could find himself in trouble late in the fight if he doesn’t get him out of there
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Value on Edgar dec +500 and guida dec +310

really don’t like playing these lines this far out but whatever.

I like overeem but would be a lot more comfortable betting him in a 3 rounder.

Econoreem was lucky Sakai gassed worse than he did. If he employs the same strategy against volkov he could find himself in trouble late in the fight if he doesn’t get him out of there
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I dont think it was lucky and I don't remember Reem gassing out. He fought a very measured fight, let Sakai tire himself out and then took over. Had nothing to do with luck.
 
MMAOracle said:
Am I missing something? Why are people betting on Guida?
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Johnson is notorious for fading/dropping the ball, especially if he gets taken down. Probably PTSD from Khabib telling him to give up as he was getting mauled. Johnson could win r1 looking -500 and then drop off hard and lose the next two rounds for little to no reason.

Clay is going to look for TD's constantly and could steal rounds on top due to Johnsons inactivity. MJ should win easily but he is very inconsistent and seriously lacks that fight for your money quality. Johnson could go from looking like a top 5 contender to a regional reject in the same fight for seemingly no reason. At least with Guida you know what you're getting for your money. Alot of TD attempts and a high level of activity, two things that might be MJ's kryptonite.
 
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DonQ94 said:
I dont think it was lucky and I don't remember Reem gassing out. He fought a very measured fight, let Sakai tire himself out and then took over. Had nothing to do with luck.
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he slowed down in the fight with rozenstruik and he was slowing down vs Sakai. Sakai was beating him up pretty good until he gassed.

I dont trust him in a 5 rounder vs volkov who has shown he can sustain a pace over 5 rounds where as overeem consistently fades
 
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Captain Chesapeake said:
Guida was just in a close fight with Bobby green who is a similar fighter to Johnson. Johnson is a much bigger flake than green.

there’s value on guida. Johnson finds ways to lose fights consistently.
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This. Also Green is a way better grappler than Johnson so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Guida submit him.
 
I've got a $25 free bet that's only good for live betting. Betting against Johnson when he looks good first 2 minutes and odds shift before he does something stupid might be my plan with that. Guida could blanket him after Johnson falls into an easy takedown from a mistake

Econo Reem at +150 isn't bad either. He hasn't looked that good lately, but he has looked very very smart and finding ways to win (other than the 5 seconds remaining KO loss to Rozenstruick)

Just kinda reminding me of one of those win ugly no matter what types last 5 fights

I also got a good laugh out of PointsBet calling him "Frank Edgar" instead of Frankie.
 
MMAOracle said:
Am I missing something? Why are people betting on Guida?
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People are betting the number on Guida. Myself included.

MJ has basically one round and one punch to win this fight. I'll take those odds anyway for a vet like Guida. If Guida makes this dirty its over imo.
 
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