UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov

Am I crazy for liking Econoreem by decision at +500?

The Sakai fight went until the 5th, and I would imagine Volkov won't be as gassed as Sakai if it makes it there, also, Reem could have coasted to a decision against guy who's name I can't remember if he didn't get blasted with 10 seconds left.

I don't love Overeem's recent strategy of covering up for way too long when he gets hit, but I believe he can overpower Volkov in the clinch, press him into the cage and secure enough takedowns to win on the scorecards, plus Volkov seems to not throw with as much power as some of the guys Overeem has faced recently.
 
Stamman/Askar is off
 
Youssef Zalal is apparently stepping in on just over a week's notice, he was announced as the replacement on Jan 28th. So factor in that his cardio might be junk if you're planning on plunking down on him at -230 ish.
 
Extremely meaningless stat, Edgar uses non-committal TD attempts to setup strikes. He might have 'attempted' 8 vs Cub for example but he never really committed cause he didn't need to, the TD threat meant he could cruise striking. Sandhagen has been takendown by literally everyone he's fought in the UFC including bums like Arnett. He's also been caught in deep subs repeatedly. Unless you think Edgar has worse wrestling than someone like Arnett (which would be ridiculous) then he's very live to get takedowns here. Even in his last fight he got Pedro down twice which is much more than good grapplers like Sterling, Caraway or Brett Johns could manage against him.
I'm not really a bettor, but this is why I like the betting forum. Unlike UFC discussion, you guys actually discuss mma and I learn things
 
This is such a great live bet spot imo. Mj might win round one (or KO him in round one) but if Guida can make this a scrappy fight I think he can win this. Im not comparing Guida to Filli but I could see this fight going in a similiar fashion.

MJ is a washed fighter coming off a major knee injury. He seems like the guy whos fighting for money at this point. Dog or pass for me or live bet like I said.

Mhm!
 
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