UFC 258: Usman vs Burns Official Betts

$5 Jim Miller by 1st round sub +1400
$50 Usman round 4/5/dec -115
$25 Usman dec +140 (PointsBet promo)

Nothing really sticking out to me in this other than that
 
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Vieira+Belal+Simon/Kelleher DNGTD 2u
Burns+Vieira+Belal+Simon/Kelleher DNGTD 2.5u

that's it
 
Usman KO/TKO or DEC 5u @ -189
Usman DEC 1.4u @ +130
Usman KO/TKO round 4 or 5 0.4u @ +2000

Heinisch 0.6u @ +187
Heinisch DEC 0.2u @ +400

Edit: Added Maycee Barber 0.6u @ +100 and Ricky Simon ITD 0.4u @ +375
 
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UFC 258:
$600 Maycee Barber +118

$1400 Gastelum -210 (if money comes in on Heinisch I may add)

$350 Mallory Martin -135

$2200 Ricky Simon -245

$1800 Gabe Green -118 (I'm looking to add more. Think people will buy into Rowes height advantage)
$700 Under 2.5 -117

$200 Robertson +120
$450 under 2.5 +140

I'm looking to bet Chris Gutierrez I think. I'm 90% there... some prop bets I'm looking at are Green KO, Robertson sub, barber KO, barber/Grayson under, kelleher sub to hedge, and gastelum KO and maybe usman ITD. I'll be betting as the fights go on and adding more.

LFA 99:
$500 Fabio Cherant -105

Boxing:
$3800 Shavkatdzhon Rakhimov +190 (his opponent Jojo is currently -155 so I can hedge and probably will if line keeps tightening) Jojo came in 3.5 pounds overweight and that's more beneficial in boxing than ufc weight is huge so I'm a little more nervous will hedge off a bit

$800 Richard Commey -280 (multiple parlay piece)
 
$200 Barber +130
$270 Usman -270
$100 Usman KO +300
$100 Heinisch rd3/dec +300
$20 fight ends in rd4 +1600
$20 fight ends in rd5 +2200

Edit: for clarity, I'm not very confident in some of these picks. Hence the rather low sizing. If I have a STRONG lean like I did in some cards in the end of 2020/UFC 257, you'll see me bet $500 or more on a single play.

Next week's card I'm struggling to find good spots on, too.
 
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20 on Robertson ML at +130
35 on Gabe Green ML at -130
20 on Green vs Rowe under 2.5 at -134
30 on Muhammed by DEC at -139
30 on Simon by DEC at -134
30 on Barber ML at +105
33 on Usman in Rd 5 or DEC at +110
20 on Muhammed by DEC + Green vs Rowe under 2.5 at +201
Hail Mary Prop: 10 on Simon DEC + Muhammed DEC + Rodolfo Sub + Usman DEC at +870

A little worried about this one since I am relying on way more props than I have before. I think they are all have very solid potentials but still. Since all these lines are so wide I figured this is the best way to go. We'll see lol.
 
Super busy this week, didn't have a lot of time to watch tape. Lot of fights I don't have a good lean on, so I'm avoiding them instead of putting money on them just to have a bet. I haven't quite reached that stage of gambling degeneracy yet, lol.

With that being said, here are my picks this week.

Maverick ML 0.5 U
Maverick DEC 0.5 U

Marquez ML 1 U

Heinisch ML 0.5 U

Barber 0.5 U
FGTD 0.5 U

Usman ML 2.0 U
Usman R4 0.1 U
Usman R5 0.1 U
FGTD 1.5 U
 
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4u Green + Gastelum 2,49
4u Green/Rowe ITD + Simon 2,27
4u Gutierrez 1,77
4u Martin 1,67
4u Marquez 1,55
4u Barber 2,20
4u Burns 3,25
 
I don't really like having everything riding on Vieira and Belal but let's see where it goes.

●Vieira -3 1/2 + Belal -3 1/2
.95u for .75u

●Vieira -3 1/2 + Belal -3 1/2 + Simon ML + Usman/Burns starts r3
.45u for 1u

●Vieira -3 1/2 + Belal -3 1/2 + Simon DEC + Green ML + Usman -5 1/2 + Brundage(LFA)
.35u for 6u
 
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