UFC 258: Usman vs Burns Official Betts

€40 on Usman Rd 4, 5 or Dec @2.00
€10 on Ewell by Decision @ 3.55

Light card for me because I can't be arsed with this shitty card tbf. Normally there's good betting spots to balance it out, but even those are lacking.
 
Had more significant bets on Miller-Green and Robertson-Maverick, but both of those were canceled, yuck.

For now, a paltry

1.2u on Martin at -103
 
£300 Burns +240 to win £720
£150 Usman decision +138 to win £202.5

£300 Gastelum -200 to win £150

£100 Simon decision -120 to win £83.33

£75 Vieira rd 1 +110 to win £82.5

£300 Green +154 to win £464.84
 
Green KO/DEC 250 to win 330 ( bonus bet )
Rowe KO 250 to win 525 ( bonus bet )
Green KO 100 to win 500
Under 2.5 400 to win 325

Ewell DEC 115 to win 300

Martin 560 to win 350
Martin RD3/DEC 157 to win 150
Viana RD1 50 to win 350
Viana SUB 100 to win 472

Bella 1,600 to win 480

Viera RD1 Sub 200 to win 276
Viera U2.5 400 to win 244

Grasso 400 to win 290
 
Had more significant bets on Miller-Green and Robertson-Maverick, but both of those were canceled, yuck.

For now, a paltry

1.2u on Martin at -103

Added 1u on Simon at -234 (didn't post because I was too busy with tennis live-betting)
2u live bet on Usman at -186

Ending with a small +0.3u for the night.

No regrets about the Martin bet. I thought the only ways Viana could win would be a lucky right cross KO or a guard sub. At evens, you take the chances of a guard sub, especially on a girl with competent jits who has never been guard-subbed against someone who couldn't even guard sub Cifers. Oh well, I'm no fan of Martin, hence why I didn't go heavier.

Should have gone heavier on Simon at -234, though, and probably added to Usman when he got down to -140. I predicted that Burns would have a good round 1, which he did, but Usman had a big edge in cardio and chin. Of course, Usman's striking was even better than I anticipated.

Anywho, this would have been a more serious betting card for me if Green-Miller and Maverick-Robertson weren't cancelled, but I'll take the small win.

Especially since I was massacred on tennis the past two days, heh.
 
$200 Barber +130
$270 Usman -270
$100 Usman KO +300
$100 Heinisch rd3/dec +300
$20 fight ends in rd4 +1600
$20 fight ends in rd5 +2200

Edit: for clarity, I'm not very confident in some of these picks. Hence the rather low sizing. If I have a STRONG lean like I did in some cards in the end of 2020/UFC 257, you'll see me bet $500 or more on a single play.

Next week's card I'm struggling to find good spots on, too.

I added 116 on Molly idiotically, and 75 on the under in the Belal fight.

Both missed.

Added $50 to an Usman/Kelvin parlay boost @ +150 on FD. Added another 100 to Usman ITD @ +310.

So +254 for the night. Meh.

If Usman lost, I'd be fucked.

Overexposed myself, not happy having to rely on tilt betting a +310 prop to save my night.
 
Usman KO/TKO or DEC 5u @ -189
Usman DEC 1.4u @ +130
Usman KO/TKO round 4 or 5 0.4u @ +2000

Heinisch 0.6u @ +187
Heinisch DEC 0.2u @ +400

Edit: Added Maycee Barber 0.6u @ +100 and Ricky Simon ITD 0.4u @ +375

Usman KO/TKO or DEC 5u @ -189
Usman DEC 1.4u @ +130
Usman KO/TKO round 4 or 5 0.4u @ +2000

Heinisch 0.6u @ +187
Heinisch DEC 0.2u @ +400

Maycee Barber 0.6u @ +100
Ricky Simon ITD 0.4u @ +375

Bad picks. -1.5u.
 
€40 on Usman Rd 4, 5 or Dec @2.00
€10 on Ewell by Decision @ 3.55

Light card for me because I can't be arsed with this shitty card tbf. Normally there's good betting spots to balance it out, but even those are lacking.

Wrong kinda sweep - 50, yikes. Read the Usman fight wrong, thought it was gonna be another grind fest. Looking to bounce back on the next cards.
 
4u Green + Gastelum 2,49
4u Green/Rowe ITD + Simon 2,27
4u Gutierrez 1,77
4u Martin 1,67
4u Marquez 1,55
4u Barber 2,20
4u Burns 3,25

-0,76u
another unsuccessful night, another close loss

My Overall in 2021 on UFC prebets: -6,79u
2021 UFC Events I made money on: 2 out of 5
 
Added 1u on Simon at -234 (didn't post because I was too busy with tennis live-betting)
2u live bet on Usman at -186

Ending with a small +0.3u for the night.

No regrets about the Martin bet. I thought the only ways Viana could win would be a lucky right cross KO or a guard sub. At evens, you take the chances of a guard sub, especially on a girl with competent jits who has never been guard-subbed against someone who couldn't even guard sub Cifers. Oh well, I'm no fan of Martin, hence why I didn't go heavier.

Should have gone heavier on Simon at -234, though, and probably added to Usman when he got down to -140. I predicted that Burns would have a good round 1, which he did, but Usman had a big edge in cardio and chin. Of course, Usman's striking was even better than I anticipated.

Anywho, this would have been a more serious betting card for me if Green-Miller and Maverick-Robertson weren't cancelled, but I'll take the small win.

Especially since I was massacred on tennis the past two days, heh.
Should have bet Grasso and got yourself up a modest 9u as well <seedat>
 
I don't really like having everything riding on Vieira and Belal but let's see where it goes.

●Vieira -3 1/2 + Belal -3 1/2
.95u for .75u

●Vieira -3 1/2 + Belal -3 1/2 + Simon ML + Usman/Burns starts r3
.45u for 1u

●Vieira -3 1/2 + Belal -3 1/2 + Simon DEC + Green ML + Usman -5 1/2 + Brundage(LFA)
.35u for 6u
I knew I got greedy with that Rodolfo line. A shame everything else was on point. I should have trusted my read on Simon more as well. Managed to get a unit back with a late parlay that barely hit.
Screenshot_2021-02-14-08-27-48.png
Prebets -1.75u
Total -.75u
 
£300 Burns +240 to win £720
£150 Usman decision +138 to win £202.5

£300 Gastelum -200 to win £150

£100 Simon decision -120 to win £83.33

£75 Vieira rd 1 +110 to win £82.5

Added.... £100 Belal decision -120 to win 83.33

£500 Green +154 to win £500 (I was too slow on the part cash out so won an extra £45)
......................
Total: £208.33
 
35 on Gabe Green ML at -130 to win 61.95
20 on Green vs Rowe under 2.5 at -134
20 on Viana/Martin u2.5 at +212 (had a +25% boost on Draftkings) to win 62.50
30 on Muhammed by DEC at -139 to win 51.60
30 on Simon by DEC at -134 to win 52.50
30 on Barber ML at +105
33 on Usman in Rd 5 or DEC at +110
10 free bet on Usman by KO/TKO to win 25
20 on Muhammed by DEC + Green vs Rowe under 2.5 at +201
Hail Mary Prop: 10 on Simon DEC + Muhammed DEC + Rodolfo Sub + Usman DEC at +870

Overall laid down 228 to and ended up with 253.55, coming up a whopping 25.55 lol

If that Green/Rowe under2.5 would have hit my nice would be real nice since I had it bet straight and had it parlayed with Belal by decision. Also, betting Barber was a real dumb move. that guy Jordan was right, I'm an idiot for not taping that enough and getting influenced by hype. I was really confident Usman would take this by decision but glad I took that $10 free bet on threw it on Usman by KO/TKO just to cover my ass in case he got Burns out of there early than I anticipated. That free bet ended up being virtually my only profit for the night lol. This is the seventh event I have ever bet on (first being Fig vs Moreno) and I'm just happy to still have my money in my account to play next week. This card was difficult to call and I had to play way more props than I would have preferred but it kinda worked out. Still betting relatively low amounts compared to most people on here but I'm still a beginner so I'm working myself up for bigger plays.
 
UFC 258:
$600 Maycee Barber +118

$1400 Gastelum -210 (if money comes in on Heinisch I may add)

$350 Mallory Martin -135

$2200 Ricky Simon -245

$1800 Gabe Green -118 (I'm looking to add more. Think people will buy into Rowes height advantage)
$700 Under 2.5 -117

$200 Robertson +120
$450 under 2.5 +140

I'm looking to bet Chris Gutierrez I think. I'm 90% there... some prop bets I'm looking at are Green KO, Robertson sub, barber KO, barber/Grayson under, kelleher sub to hedge, and gastelum KO and maybe usman ITD. I'll be betting as the fights go on and adding more.

LFA 99:
$500 Fabio Cherant -105

Boxing:
$3800 Shavkatdzhon Rakhimov +190 (his opponent Jojo is currently -155 so I can hedge and probably will if line keeps tightening) Jojo came in 3.5 pounds overweight and that's more beneficial in boxing than ufc weight is huge so I'm a little more nervous will hedge off a bit

$800 Richard Commey -280 (multiple parlay piece)

+$2950
2021 +13,291

Only fight I watched was Gabe green. I was out drinking and my phone died. I put an extra $1200 on gastelum after I hit that fight. Never got to bet Gutierrez or usman ITD and a few other bets

Also my big bet in boxing was a DRAW at +190. I hedged off a couple grand w Jojo Diaz but felt Shavkat won the fight watching today.. hit w Commey and hit w Cherant LFA Friday night. 2 weeks in a row I missed big money by not even watching. Smh. Gota get more disciplined
 
Green KO/DEC 250 to win 330 ( bonus bet )
Rowe KO 250 to win 525 ( bonus bet )
Green KO 100to win 500
Under 2.5 400 to win 325

Ewell DEC 115 to win 300

Martin 560 to win 350
Martin RD3/DEC 157 to win 150
Viana RD1 50 to win 350
Viana SUB 100 to win 472

Bella 1,600 to win 480

Viera RD1 Sub 200 to win 276
Viera U2.5 400 to win 244

Grasso 400 to win 290

Added pre bet:

Gutierrez 550 to win 400
Hernandez 50 to win 200
Kelleher 154
Kelleher finish 50
Kelleher SUB 50
Heinisch/Gastelum O2.5 800 to win 320
Grasso 400 to win 363
Main O3.5 188


+764 = 1.9u
 
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