After getting lazy for the last event, i decided to actually study tape for this one. i've been very succesful when doing so, so i hope to get back on track. i've studied 2 so far.
I thought Jan was a good pick beforehand, now not so much. Sure, there might be a tiny bit of value but it's not much, if at all. Jan gets his devastating linear uppercut, hook combinations going when he's fighting on the backfoot. When he's the one pressuring he kicks a lot (often from the lefty stance, that left body kick is a whip). leg kicks are good too, but there's not much after that. Izzy is DEFINITELY NOT gonna pressure Jan, he's playing matador on saturday, just like he has done with any respectable puncher he's ever fought (Costa, Romero). that leaves us with a technical striking battle, with lots of kicks, where izzy's got the better distance management, lateral footwork and is the quicker guy. I doubt Jan has much success with tds. Most of the tds ive seen from him were reactive tds (again, when fighting on the backfoot) or a result of a grappling exchange proposed by his opponent. Of course, he could show us a new wrinkle (he may very well do that, he's got 20lbs on adesanya and it is arguably his main ptv) but he hasn't so far, and izzy's got great tdd. I think Izzy is gonna win this fight, and prob by dec, but price isn't great.
Yan and Aljo is a bit harder to read imho. Believe it or not, Yan's fight vs Jin soo son was pretty useful. After all, he's long and lanky, pushed a good pace and threw these looping shots that aljo does as well. However, apart from the obvious speed and straight level discrepancy, one of Aljo's main weapons is the teep (along with the roundhouse and switch kick) and i haven't seen how Yan deals with that. It's important cause Aljo throws that shit in bunches, and it's a very disruptive move. Aljo's got a decent reach and size advantage and his rythym and cardio make him a super tough opponent. Regarding his wrestling, i don't think it'll come to play that much. Yan's got a strong stance and has shown great tdd (he could get taken down if he gets reckless and aljo times him right coming in, having said that, i think Yan's ground game is good enough to stand up especially after the first rd). I expect Aljo to have a strong first round, cause he pushes a ridiculous pace and throws tons of volume (unlike yan, who often takes a round off to get his opponent's timing etc.). That explosiveness is gonna go down tho, by the second or third, and that's when Yan is gonna be able to get inside quick and throw strong boxing combinations. he could start a clinch battle if he grabs one of Aljo's hands when he throws slower looping punches and land knees, elbows. Yan's got that immigrant mentality boys, and i don't think a not so fresh aljo can withstand that barrage. It's gonna be a fun one, and i think a good option is to livebet Yan. Under is set at 3.5 for a reason, hard to call. i'd go with the under if i had to.
So far im not loving any play, but i've got a good idea of what to expect, imo. Interested in rakic vs santos, cruz vs kenney and benavidez vs askarov. Lines look good and i feel there might be a good play.
pd: had brady on a parlay with some fighters last saturday. lost that one and now i see brady's price has improved. i'm not seeing why people are playing matthews.