Political Betting Thread

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/yang-expands-lead-in-nyc-mayor-race-poll/ar-BB1fJnZU

been building a position on yang for a while, there's still a lot of value on yan to win outright i think, his main competitor is adams who he's running against for the dem candidacy. atm he's roughly 1.4 to win outright and 1.3 to win the dem nomination. although some of the discrepancy must be due to the time between the candidates being chose and the actual vote, so might make more sense if you like yang to bet on him winning the dem nomination and then roll it over if/when he wins that.
 


Just like I thought. Trump starting his election campaign already. Love to see him be speaker of the house soon.
 
On Smarkets Harris is at +420 to win 2024 presidential election. <Lmaoo>

I would think it's more likely the re-animated corpse of Biden stands a better chance than her. And there is an argument that what we have already.

The line on Trump being RNC candidate has halved since I placed my bet. I will probably sell out of that and put it all on Trump winning 2024 which is at a generous +800 at minimum currently. Realistically should be -200 to even money. So, will be building a position on both overtime and then a moderate to big bet on Trump 2024. Health problems can always derail him.
 
You think Trump should be -200 to even money to win in 2024? I have never bet politics but it seems extremely difficult to cap, especially years in advance. At +800 it might be a fun bet I wouldn't touch him at even money or less. Perhaps my view is jaded though since I live in Seattle WA where I see people that will do anything to keep Harris in office as President or Vice President for the next 8 years. +420 on Harris to win in 2024 is realistic, IMO.
 
You think Trump should be -200 to even money to win in 2024? I have never bet politics but it seems extremely difficult to cap, especially years in advance. At +800 it might be a fun bet I wouldn't touch him at even money or less. Perhaps my view is jaded though since I live in Seattle WA where I see people that will do anything to keep Harris in office as President or Vice President for the next 8 years. +420 on Harris to win in 2024 is realistic, IMO.

Fair points and my capping should be taken with a pinch of salt. 2024 is too far away to really bet much on. But, I knew Trump was running again, even back in 2020, and I predicted he would start his rallies this summer if he was. I feel like have been proven right.

My -200 comes from assuming Harris being on the ticket as POTUS or VPOTUS. The variance is on random shit happening or Harris not being on ticket.

Realistically, her base are the people who choose candidates based solely on sex and skin colour, which for her, even in primaries, was in low single digits. On top of that, you have to add the crazed trump haters and (the heavily overlapping) vote blue no matter who crowd. This coalition stands no chance against De Santis or Trump, who are the most likely GOP nominees.

IMO the corpse of Biden stands a better chance, but given his age and the near certainty that Harris will become POTUS before his 2nd term is out will be a millstone on his ability to get his vote out.

I am looking at the R senate and house bet in 2022. I am liking the +140, but I need to delve a bit deeper using my favourite pollsters to see if there is value on that or not.

I haven't seen it yet, but if I get a chance to bet Trump being speaker of the house in 2022, I would sprinkle something on it at about +900.
 
Last edited:
I haven't seen it yet, but if I get a chance to bet Trump being speaker of the house in 2022, I would sprinkle something on it at about +900.

I heard talk about this but I'm pretty sure it's just talk. Trump's just entertaining the idea to excite people.

For one thing, I think most republican congressmen lowkey don't like Trump and prefer just supporting him publicly to maintain his supporters for themselves. But more importantly, I think Trump would absolutely despise the actual responsibilities that come with being speaker. It's a tedious job that requires a lot of work, long, long hours in the chamber managing sessions, and a lot less opportunity for traveling and public appearances. No chance Trump would actually want to do that.
 
I heard talk about this but I'm pretty sure it's just talk. Trump's just entertaining the idea to excite people.

For one thing, I think most republican congressmen lowkey don't like Trump and prefer just supporting him publicly to maintain his supporters for themselves. But more importantly, I think Trump would absolutely despise the actual responsibilities that come with being speaker. It's a tedious job that requires a lot of work, long, long hours in the chamber managing sessions, and a lot less opportunity for traveling and public appearances. No chance Trump would actually want to do that.

I agree its unlikely, and he is still lacking support within the GOP itself. Its a fair point about the work that is required in that position; he will proably want to delegate to a trusted MAGA die-hard at some point.

But, the reason he may want to do so, or get the job if he wants it, are that he is cementing his hold over the GOP, and this gives him a close-up of his enemies in the GOP there and where the fault-lines are, and its a way to grandstand a return to politics. After dealing with Paul Ryan and Mitch McConell he knows he has to get his people into key positions or he will get back-stabbed. I think he may do it for a while just to knock heads and get his people into strategic positions and ensure he has his hands on the levers that will make GOP congress work for him, so when he wins the presidency he has the house in his back pocket.
 
Last edited:
I agree its unlikely, and he is still lacking support within the GOP itself. Its a fair point about the work that is required in that position; he will proably want to delegate to a trusted MAGA die-hard at some point.

But, the reason he may want to do so, or get the job if he wants it, are that he is cementing his hold over the GOP, and this gives him a close-up of his enemies in the GOP there and where the fault-lines are, and its a way to grandstand a return to politics. After dealing with Paul Ryan and Mitch McConell he knows he has to get his people into key positions or he will get back-stabbed. I think he may do it for a while just to knock heads and get his people into strategic positions and ensure he has his hands on the levers that will make GOP congress work for him, so when he wins the presidency he has the house in his back pocket.

If he was 60 maybe. I cannot fathom he'd want this at his age. But...who the hell knows I guess.
 
If he was 60 maybe. I cannot fathom he'd want this at his age. But...who the hell knows I guess.
He wants to save america. You can agree or disagree with his vision. Once you understand his motivation he is pretty straight forward to understand.

Problem is people hate him so much they cant just disagree, so they have to come up with pretzel like contortions to make sense of what he does.

Thats why i knew he was running again. It was obvious bc i know his motivation.

He will do whatever he thinks that will help him on his quest.

Helosi is an idiot and no spring chicken, if she can handle the job, so can he. He runs rings around her as it is.
 
Last edited:
I put 2u on trumpkin a couple of days ago. Very soft line on him still, i knew the polls to date were fake and now we are seeing a shift to a neck and neck race there.

Whatever the result, its going to be a squeaker, and trumpkin is the value side.

VA gubernatorial election mcauliffe v youngkin on 2 nov for clarity.
 
Last edited:
Trumpkin is now the favourite. As I said, the polls were fake. I get a freeroll now. Break-even or 2.5u profit.
 
Last edited:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/yang-expands-lead-in-nyc-mayor-race-poll/ar-BB1fJnZU

been building a position on yang for a while, there's still a lot of value on yan to win outright i think, his main competitor is adams who he's running against for the dem candidacy. atm he's roughly 1.4 to win outright and 1.3 to win the dem nomination. although some of the discrepancy must be due to the time between the candidates being chose and the actual vote, so might make more sense if you like yang to bet on him winning the dem nomination and then roll it over if/when he wins that.

yikes, this didn't age well, should of updated further into the cycle, it became clear pretty quick that yang just wasn't connecting with enough ppl, and the polls were pretty meaningless that far out.
 
I'm pretty amazed that biden is still the fav to win the dem nomination, I'm probably going to end up pretty big betting against him. got a decent position against him atm but it's still too early too add much at a time unless you can scalp it as the odds change a bit. I did bet harris multiple times throughout the year but purely as a trade since her price has been naturally getting bet down a bit as biden regresses.
 
Nikki Haley seems to have them decent odds for 2024. I think Trump will be obvious R candidate if he decides to run at 78 though.
 
I'm pretty amazed that biden is still the fav to win the dem nomination, I'm probably going to end up pretty big betting against him. got a decent position against him atm but it's still too early too add much at a time unless you can scalp it as the odds change a bit. I did bet harris multiple times throughout the year but purely as a trade since her price has been naturally getting bet down a bit as biden regresses.

I think the DNC has a real problem here. Biden is unlikely to be able to convincingly run for a 2nd term, and Harris is very unpopular. They have been trying to re-brand her recently, but it has not worked out. The Clinton faction forced Cuomo out to curtail him.

I think betting against Biden is a pretty fair play, not sure who to bet for though.

They might go back to Cuomo, but looking at it now, I think none of those 3 will be the nominee. Perhaps Buttigieg? Will Killary try again?
 
I think the DNC has a real problem here. Biden is unlikely to be able to convincingly run for a 2nd term, and Harris is very unpopular. They have been trying to re-brand her recently, but it has not worked out. The Clinton faction forced Cuomo out to curtail him.

I think betting against Biden is a pretty fair play, not sure who to bet for though.

They might go back to Cuomo, but looking at it now, I think none of those 3 will be the nominee. Perhaps Buttigieg? Will Killary try again?

yeah harris is even more unpopular than biden atm despite her best efforts to distance herself from what he's done so far, she's just too unauthentic to be a serious contender to win the presidency it feels like. but they might give her the platform anyway, buttigieg still gonna face the same issues he had last time, enough ppl aren't ready for a gay president, but nonetheless he might be worth a bet anyway to sell lower just because he's more viable than most of the others. hillary's too old and decrepit too like biden. I really don't know right now, booker possibly, but probably too young.
there's still probably a decent chance they just go with harris anyway as she's the VP and biden kinda partially chose her as VP because they're on the same page with a lot of shit. there's got to be insane value on a couple of long shots though, if the primary is remotely as volatile as it was last time there's going to be so many pump n dumps with odds.
 
With the way things are going, I think you would have to be insane to bet on a Democrat becoming president in 2024.

They can't accomplish anything with the corporate Dems in the Senate, Manchin and Sinema, gutting everything they try to accomplish that might be popular. That's only going to get worse when they likely lose the House majority and the tie in the Senate during the midterms, they'll be able to accomplish even less for the final two years. Then they limp into 2024 against Trump or a younger candidate that has his blessing and no signature policies to show for it? Bloodbath

As far as who the Republican candidate will be, I have no idea. I have a hard time believing Trump will run again when sitting on the sidelines and playing Kingmaker will give him just as much attention without having to do any of the work or the busy schedule.
 
la penn to be #2 in 1st round or to finish in the top 2 of the french election looks a good bet atm if you can get odds.
 
The betting season is almost upon us. I want to recommend listening to this guy before making bets on the mid-terms. Most of the polls are bs. Listen to his deep dive. Check out his previous results, he does independent polls and provides superior results. This is one time only I will recco this guy, it's almost as if I am sharing a secret. Up to 1hr 15mins is relevant, after that it goes off on some other meaningless stuff.

https://rumble.com/v1gkmrv-episode-...h-the-peoples-pundit.html?mref=iec21&mc=bd7nv

I will use him, Trafalgar and Rasmussen mainly to make my bets.
 
Back
Top