PFL 2021 #2: Regular Season

Speaking as someone with a math degree from a very famous school, stats are mostly worthless in MMA. I've explained why in previous posts on this subforum.

Which, incidentally, is why betting on MMA is so lucrative. If it was completely described by statistics, like baseball is, betting on the sport would be anti-value.
in the case of one fight yes, stats are misleading, but an active ufc career will tell you a lot about who gets hit often or hits often, who are they able to takedown, and how long can they control a skillful opponent on the floor, how many leg kicks do they throw?how many body shots? do they throw less frequent by round three? which tells you about there stamina. While you can come at me and say i dont know what im doing I picked all the winners in this card but one.

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Im not here to have a pissing contest, im just frustrated because i didn't even know Marthin was a national wrestling champion, so im letting out steam.
 
I removed him because of his opponents lack of data, its not safe to bet on an unknown fighter, while footage is available, there is lack of stats info to save me time. Its faster and better at determining how effective a fighters skills are with actual numbers being recorded. Choose you picks as you may, but i dont believe in gambling and going on a hunch. Its the difference between being a card counter in black jack and just playing at random chance.

Funny guy
 
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Rory went for the finish just like he said he would do in his interviews prior to this fight. He said he wanted to make a statement. Also, Rory is a smart fighter, and he knows he needs a finish to climb the ladder in this points-based tournament, and he was also fighting a guy who gets submitted easily once you take him down.

The parlay pays $72.39 since 2 of its legs were cancelled.

Thank you, Mr. MacDonald~ :)
 
I parlay the whole card. and like i said there is not enough of a major reward, I have to risk 1000$ if i wanna make something like what im use to making, why will i risk high here when i can save play money with a ufc card that has -120 fighters with ufcstats and ufcathlete info bio, add wikipedia for the majority of the card , there is more chance for success with bigger pots.


I love how you parlay an entire card for 1,000$ but every time you post ur slip it never shows the value but hey keep doing what you do good luck man this saturday
 
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Rory went for the finish just like he said he would do in his interviews prior to this fight. He said he wanted to make a statement. Also, Rory is a smart fighter, and he knows he needs a finish to climb the ladder in this points-based tournament, and he was also fighting a guy who gets submitted easily once you take him down.

The parlay pays $72.39 since 2 of its legs were cancelled.

Thank you, Mr. MacDonald~ :)
Stop it. You're not supposed to be making money on this card I was told it's awful for betting. <45>
 
I love how you parlay an entire card for 1,000$ but every time you post ur slip it never shows the value but hey keep doing what you do good luck man this saturday
i never said i parlay 1000$ , i said that if i had to make 10k for this card, i would have to bet 1000$ with the risk of losing it all for the hopes of only 10k. A ufc card can net me far higher with better information. pfl cards and bellator cards are to increase your bankroll for the ufc events thats how i see them. But its not going to be the main source of revenue. after the no contest fight , if i had bet all the favorites in this card, i would have netted 900$ at best for the 100$ risk, its not a bet i really need.
 
Rory submission +350
Cooper submission +500
Sordi/Camozzi O1.5 -110

My bets thus far:

• Rory MacDonald submission +350 $15 for $52.50
• Ray Cooper submission +500 $15 for $75
• Joao Zeferino +310 $15 for $46.50
• Tom Lawlor +285 $10 for $28.50

I plan to live bet the main card for bigger bets. I also have some small parlays, but they're all 3-5 team parlays with props, so I don't expect to hit those.

Chris Camozzi/Emiliano Sordi Over 1½ -103 $30

Emiliano Sordi -139


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My small prop parlays are dead. Nobody is finishing fights... :(


My results:

• Rory MacDonald submission +350 $15 for $52.50
• Ray Cooper submission +500 $15 for $75
• Joao Zeferino +310 $15 for $46.50

• Tom Lawlor +285 $10 for $28.50
• Camozzi/Emiliano Sordi Over 1½ -103 $30
• Emiliano Sordi -139 $139 for $100
Parlay: $10 for $72.39


+$366.39

Congrats to everyone else who cashed tonight. Tomorrow, we have LFA and CES -- if you guys know anything about those cards, let me know. I'll try to do some research tonight on a couple of fights, but won't have time to research most of the fights.
 
in the case of one fight yes, stats are misleading, but an active ufc career will tell you a lot about who gets hit often or hits often, who are they able to takedown, and how long can they control a skillful opponent on the floor, how many leg kicks do they throw?how many body shots? do they throw less frequent by round three? which tells you about there stamina. While you can come at me and say i dont know what im doing I picked all the winners in this card but one.

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Im not here to have a pissing contest, im just frustrated because i didn't even know Marthin was a national wrestling champion, so im letting out steam.

So you picked a bunch of monster favorites, two of whom were awful value (Sordi, Aleksaskhin), and missed badly on a small favorite? What is this supposed to show, again?
 
So you picked a bunch of monster favorites, two of whom were awful value (Sordi, Aleksaskhin), and missed badly on a small favorite? What is this supposed to show, again?
If you think Aleksaskin was an awful value then you clearly know nothing, he has 3x the experience to his opponent, a sambo background and well rounded. He has far better opposition rating.

You clearly don't know chit about using spread sheets, i make confident parlays all the time, i could win every card 300-500$ easy, but that is not for me, if you play this game you play all the way for big money. Otherwise why even play? I already make a middle class salary, what do i get making an extra 1000$ a month? Groceries? To each there own , time matters to me, i invested in fights that brought me no value or potential big value. that is my point.
 
If you think Aleksaskin was an awful value then you clearly know nothing, he has 3x the experience to his opponent, a sambo background and well rounded. He has far better opposition rating.

You clearly don't know chit about using spread sheets, i make confident parlays all the time, i could win every card 300-500$ easy, but that is not for me, if you play this game you play all the way for big money. Otherwise why even play? I already make a middle class salary, what do i get making an extra 1000$ a month? Groceries? To each there own , time matters to me, i invested in fights that brought me no value or potential big value. that is my point.

“I could win $500 on every card easy but I’m such a nice guy I choose not to.”What a clown car you are. Also you’re a middle class guy but couldn’t use an extra $12,000 per year LMAO.
 
Lol I’m assuming people are all responding to outertroll . Glad I blocked him the first week he appeared
 
“I could win $500 on every card easy but I’m such a nice guy I choose not to.”What a clown car you are. Also you’re a middle class guy but couldn’t use an extra $12,000 per year LMAO.

Dude's a clown lol, I don't think he's adding much value to the chat. He says a lot of bonkers shit lmao.
 
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