ACA 146: Absolute Championship Akhmat, MMA, October 4

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I'm not going to tape it because I can't bet ACA but for those that want to tape it I think there could be serious value on Khiramagomedov. He's a good wrestler and Tumenov has historically had some issues with really good wrestlers. The current odds seem wide as fuck to me.

Not sure Karginov should be a favourite over Oliveira either.
 
Khiramagomedov is down to 2.65 now, he was 6.0 when I posted it, probably not as much value now.

Jubileau now favourite too.

Wish I could get on these openers.
 
10 fights on this ACA card

https://twitter.com/hashtag/ACA146?src=hashtag_click&f=live

Here were the BetOnline opening lines:

Daniel Oliveira (+145), 64.9606 inch reach
Maharbek Karginov (-175), 69.685 inch reach, 4.7244 inch reach advantage now -130

Alain Ilunga (+145) 74 inch reach .... 4.7087 inch reach advantage
Lom-Ali Nalgiev (-175) only has 69.2913 inch reach now -300

Azam Gafurov (+170), 65.748 inch reach
Josiel Silva (-210), 65.748 inch reach, same reach of 167 cm now -160

Khusein Khaliev (+130), 72.8346 inch reach, 1.9685 inch reach advantage
Stanislav Vlasenko (-160), 70.8661 inch reach now -145

Gadzhimurad Khiramagomedov (+500) 70.67 inch reach
Albert Tumenov (-700) 75 inch reach, 4.33 inch reach advantage... odds now -135

Rasul Albaskhanov (+130) 66.5354 inch reach, 1.1811 inch reach advantage
Osimkhon Rakhmonov (-160) 65.3543 inch reach now +145 ...................

Carlos Augusto Santos da Silva (+425)
Rustam Kerimov (-600)

Salamu Abdurahmanov (-900)
Rene Pessoa (+600)

Akhmed Balkizov (+375)
Dzhihad Yunusov (-500)

Elismar Lima da Silva (+375)
Abdul-Rakhman Dudaev (-500)
 
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Hellowhosthat said:
Khiramagomedov is down to 2.65 now, he was 6.0 when I posted it, probably not as much value now.

Jubileau now favourite too.

Wish I could get on these openers.
Click to expand...
these are the most viable underdogs

Daniel Oliveira 60/40 Daniel already beat him before. and he is coming off decision losses against two better fighters, so his training camp is better.
Khusein Khaliev 50/50
Gadzhimurad Khiramagomedov 55/45 i see he had a 9-2 ama record so his true record is 20-6 , i think the bookies priced him because his 11-4 record looks average but when you take all his experience as a whole and the fact he's dominated his last fights using his longer reach, i can see why so many sharp players jumped in on that.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Gadzhimurad Khiramagomedov 55/45 i see he had a 9-2 ama record so his true record is 20-6 , i think the bookies priced him because his 11-4 record looks average but when you take all his experience as a whole and the fact he's dominated his last fights using his longer reach, i can see why so many sharp players jumped in on that.
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Are you sure you've got the right fighter? This guy has a 179/180 cm reach (<71"), and generally fights guys with longer reach.
 
Odds on Josiel Silva look good to me too, I have a hard time seeing him losing to Gafurov.
 
Khusein Khaliev (+140) over Stanislav Vlasenko $50.00 to win $70.00

I agree this one if 50/50. Gotta play that (perceived) 8% edge on the book. Best bet on the card, IMO.
 
B.Goetz said:
Khusein Khaliev (+140) over Stanislav Vlasenko $50.00 to win $70.00

I agree this one if 50/50. Gotta play that (perceived) 8% edge on the book. Best bet on the card, IMO.
Click to expand...

Khaliev and Vlasenko is a rematch from a close fight last year that Vlasenko won. I'd suggest looking at it if you're interested.



My issue with Khaliev is that he's one of those fighters that's very talented but almost too nice sometimes, seems to want to win without really hurting his opponent too much.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Khaliev and Vlasenko is a rematch from a close fight last year that Vlasenko won. I'd suggest looking at it if you're interested.



My issue with Khaliev is that he's one of those fighters that's very talented but almost too nice sometimes, seems to want to win without really hurting his opponent too much.
Click to expand...

Oh, I definitely taped it before my bet. All Khaliev needs to do better is to work in some strikes while Vlasenko is attempting takedowns, and break the clinch when he succeeds in circling out. It was razor close even without that.
 
B.Goetz said:
Oh, I definitely taped it before my bet. All Khaliev needs to do better is to work in some strikes while Vlasenko is attempting takedowns, and break the clinch when he succeeds in circling out. It was razor close even without that.
Click to expand...

Yeah I think it's a solid bet. I just worry about Khusein's lack of urgency.

Shame as he's probably one of the more talented fighters in the division worldwide.
 
B.Goetz said:
Oh, I definitely taped it before my bet. All Khaliev needs to do better is to work in some strikes while Vlasenko is attempting takedowns, and break the clinch when he succeeds in circling out. It was razor close even without that.
Click to expand...

Have a tape of Josiel Silva Vs Gafarov. That line should be closer to 1.25 Silva imo.

EDIT - Silva dealing with Goga who's imo a fairly similar fighter to Gafarov.

 
Hellowhosthat said:
Have a tape of Josiel Silva Vs Gafarov. That line should be closer to 1.25 Silva imo.

EDIT - Silva dealing with Goga who's imo a fairly similar fighter to Gafarov.

Click to expand...

I'm in. He's at -150 at 5dimes. I watched his old (2019) fight with Bibulatov, and thought he looked pretty blah, but he was overmatched and looks to have improved a lot since then. Thanks.
 
B.Goetz said:
I'm in. He's at -150 at 5dimes. I watched his old (2019) fight with Bibulatov, and thought he looked pretty blah, but he was overmatched and looks to have improved a lot since then. Thanks.
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Is this fight on forsure? My bookie has it up still but they didn't face off in the weigh in video and ACA'S website doesn't have the match listed as part of the event ...
 
King-Ryan said:
Is this fight on forsure? My bookie has it up still but they didn't face off in the weigh in video and ACA'S website doesn't have the match listed as part of the event ...
Click to expand...
Haven't heard anything, but that doesn't sound good.
 
Didn't realize this already happened.

Khusein Khaliev defeats Stanislav Vlasenko via 3 Round Decision

Khusein Khaliev (+140) over Stanislav Vlasenko $50.00 to win $70.00
 
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