ADCC/ grappling betting thread.

[Tebowned]

ADCC 2022 in Las Vegas is this weekend. Friday night, they'll release first round matches when brackets come out.
Matches are Saturday and Sunday.
I think that's where we'll get some playable lines.
Currently some books have division winners but odds are pretty bad even for long shots.

My predictions, not bets, on male division winners:
-66: Cole Abate +200(did put some on him)
-77: Mica Galvao +115
-88: Tye Routolo +150
-99: Kaynan +130
99+: Gordon Ryan -600
Super Fight winner: Gordon Ryan(-750) by sub -185

I'll also be at ADCC both days in the red middle vip section if anyone is going.

https://www.flograppling.com/articl...ue-picks-sleepers-adcc-betting-lines-released

 

[mkess101]

I don't see how Ryan loses to Galvao barring a freak injury (I know he's had some back issues and some intestinal stuff). He's 40 lbs bigger, a decade younger, and probably the best no gi grappler ever. Galvao is a legend but this is a squash match for Ryan. -185 for his sub line may have value honestly.

 

[Tebowned]

I don't see how Ryan loses to Galvao barring a freak injury (I know he's had some back issues and some intestinal stuff). He's 40 lbs bigger, a decade younger, and probably the best no gi grappler ever. Galvao is a legend but this is a squash match for Ryan. -185 for his sub line may have value honestly.

I also think there's value in the sub line if you can get it. They're both juiced to the gills but you gotta favor the bigger/ younger/ more technical guy and he wants to make a statement by submitting him.

 

[mkess101]

I also think there's value in the sub line if you can get it. They're both juiced to the gills but you gotta favor the bigger/ younger/ more technical guy and he wants to make a statement by submitting him.

How dare you sir! Vitamins and hard work leads to this:

 

[Macaque]

• Mason Fowler +400

Not sure where to bet, but this really stood out. Fowler gave Craig a hard time at ADCC before beating him twice (EBI rules, though). He just keeps getting better and is coming off winning the Brasileiro, including beating Gutemberg Pereira who was probably the best guy in his division at the Mundial, even though he ended up losing the finals at the last minute.

 

[jnes]

How dare you sir! Vitamins and hard work leads to this:

Just eat clen, tren hard anavar give up!

 

[Danis_champ]

Why i don't see brackets?

 

[Macaque]

Why i don't see brackets?

They’re gonna be revealed Friday

 

[Tebowned]

• Mason Fowler +400

Not sure where to bet, but this really stood out. Fowler gave Craig a hard time at ADCC before beating him twice (EBI rules, though). He just keeps getting better and is coming off winning the Brasileiro, including beating Gutemberg Pereira who was probably the best guy in his division at the Mundial, even though he ended up losing the finals at the last minute.

That’s not bad either. He’s gonna have to beat 4 monsters though.

Odds are so bad for everyone though. You’re betting on them winning 4 matches.

 

[Macaque]

That’s not bad either. He’s gonna have to beat 4 monsters though.

Odds are so bad for everyone though. You’re betting on them winning 4 matches.

Fowler is the only one I’d consider betting. I favor him to win in his division but it’s a tough one. Marinho and Barbosa are monsters at -88kg. Tye Ruotolo might be undersized, which hurts his chances.

 

[Tebowned]

Fowler is the only one I’d consider betting. I favor him to win in his division but it’s a tough one. Marinho and Barbosa are monsters at -88kg. Tye Ruotolo might be undersized, which hurts his chances.

I think Tye actually wins the Atos triangle. He probably beats hinger by age. barbosa moved to Oregon awhile back and was focused on mma. He doesn’t train at Atos HQ full time.

 

[Tebowned]

Odds for first round out. Gonna scope them out when I get to my Airbnb.

 

[Tebowned]

My bets:
66kg:
Diego Reis -155
Diego Pato -155
Jeremy Skinner +145

77Kg:
Dante Leon -300 + Nicky Ryan -200 parlay

88kg:
Tye Ruotolo -300 + Dante Leon parlay
Tye Ruotolo -300 + Kennedy Maciel -600 parlay
Izaak Mitchell +100

-99kg:
Dehonte Johnson -155
Trator Ferrerira -155

+99kg:
Damon Ramos +250
John Hansen +145
Max Geminis +130
Roosevelt Sousa +130

 

[BigSteve]

the girl fighting Gabi is from my gym. She has won everything in Australia as a brown belt, one of the best female fighters on the rise in our region. 6.50, im going to sprinkle it and hope for the best

 

[Tebowned]

the girl fighting Gabi is from my gym. She has won everything in Australia as a brown belt, one of the best female fighters on the rise in our region. 6.50, im going to sprinkle it and hope for the best

I was hoping for even better odds.

Gabi has looked so bad in her last few matches even in her wins but is still a giant.

 

[Tebowned]

The odds are wrong on Langaker and Kade Rutolo on my book. Their opponents are wrong.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

the girl fighting Gabi is from my gym. She has won everything in Australia as a brown belt, one of the best female fighters on the rise in our region. 6.50, im going to sprinkle it and hope for the best

I've grappled with Owen Livesey, I might sprinkle him against Duarte but it's going to be a fucking tough ask for him lol.

 

[Tebowned]

I've grappled with Owen Livesey, I might sprinkle him against Duarte but it's going to be a fucking tough ask for him lol.

Is he good at leg locks? Pretty much Kaynan’s only weakness.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Is he good at leg locks? Pretty much Kaynan’s only weakness.

Not really, I think the standup will be interesting because he's a commonwealth judo champion and he has extremely good top pressure if he can get on top. I know that from experience, although granted I'm also not Keynan Duarte.

 

[Tebowned]

Not really, I think the standup will be interesting because he's a commonwealth judo champion and he has extremely good top pressure if he can get on top. I know that from experience, although granted I'm also not Keynan Duarte.

Can’t fault you for betting on him with those odds but Kaynan beats everyone(aside from Gordon) unless they have great leg locks.