Anthony Joshua vs. Oleksandr Usyk.

[JayE]

I think Usyk is very skilled and an all time great at his weight. More to do with the weight jump and the giants he's facing vs doubting his skill.

I think it's more a matter of style and traits than size in my view. Usyk is definitely skilled, but his best qualities at CW were arguably his size, physicality and stamina (in his closest fight at the weight against Briedis, these were the qualities that brought him through). He was often there to be hit early, and at times got by on being the superior athlete and being big for the weight. Wading through the first half of the fight while taking some shots and then dominating the second half with exceptional stamina and a high workrate might not be as viable against certain HWs who can perhaps make him pay more early.

That said, if HWs can't make him pay early, he's going to be extremely difficult to beat because he has genuinely special stamina for a CW, let alone a HW. Joshua should be the favourite, but if Usyk is still there and didn't take much damage going into rounds 7-8ish, expect some very interesting rounds down the stretch.

 

[aries]

I almost see it the opposite. If Usyk can make it through the first half without taking too much damage, I actually like his chances in the second half of the fight. He's pretty much always been a slow starter as a pro, and I'd be surprised to see that change a whole lot now. If he can stay away enough (probably involves ceding rounds through at least the first 4) while Joshua is most dangerous, his stamina and workrate could let him rack up points in the second half. Engaging much early is going to be very dangerous, considering the fact that he has gotten hit a fair bit by a lot of different kinds of fighters early in fights (none close to the puncher that Joshua is). If Usyk's defense is sharp for the first half, an upset is definitely a possibility.

True, but there is reason for my thinking. I was basing it on his performance against the only 'proper' big HW he's fought so far and that was Joe Joyce in the WSB. Because Joyce was so much bigger Usyk was on his bike from the first bell. I think he's going to do that against Joshua because as you rightly point out Joshua is most dangerous early on. Usyk can't start slowly vs. AJ or he'll be in real trouble. He'll have to be on his bike right from the first bell.

 

[Buddy Revell]

Usyk might’ve been able to decision
the AJ that Ruiz humbled but this post Ruiz AJ..? I don’t think so.

I think AJ beats Usyk behind a long power jab in a boring fight or knocks him out if Usyk gets ambitious. Don’t see any way Usyk can win based on what he’s shown at HW.

Hot take alert: Styles make fights and I actually think Mairis Briedis would present more of a stylistic problem for AJ than Usyk. AJ can be out worked and/or out punched by a smaller man as Ruiz showed. And as there are no Ali’s or Spinks’ in the division right now I don’t see any little man straight up out boxing him... Usyk included. He simply doesn’t have the work rate or power to get it done. Briedis might

 

[JayE]

True, but there is reason for my thinking. I was basing it on his performance against the only 'proper' big HW he's fought so far and that was Joe Joyce in the WSB. Because Joyce was so much bigger Usyk was on his bike from the first bell. I think he's going to do that against Joshua because as you rightly point out Joshua is most dangerous early on. Usyk can't start slowly vs. AJ or he'll be in real trouble. He'll have to be on his bike right from the first bell.

I think we're actually sort of on the same page here. I do think Usyk needs to get on his bike early and not get into needless exchanges. By doing this, he'll likely be ceding rounds, but it's most important that he avoids real damage for the first half of the fight. As he settles in and the fight goes on, I think he might have success by really turning it on in the second half as Joshua tires a bit. What he can't risk is being sloppy early in the fight as he has often been.

 

[aries]

I think we're actually sort of on the same page here. I do think Usyk needs to get on his bike early and not get into needless exchanges. By doing this, he'll likely be ceding rounds, but it's most important that he avoids real damage for the first half of the fight. As he settles in and the fight goes on, I think he might have success by really turning it on in the second half as Joshua tires a bit. What he can't risk is being sloppy early in the fight as he has often been.

Yeah definitely agree that he has to be switched on for the first half. I think Joshua will be in boxing mode and his height and reach will be advantages. But Usyk will definitely have an advantage in terms of stamina the longer the fight goes. A lot is dependent on if/when Joshua gases. I'd be very surprised to see him come in heavy for this one.

 

[VodkaDrunkenski]

I think Usyk will dazzle, especially early on but I think Joshua will catch up to him and do damage. I think a lot depends on how good Joshua's gas tank is. If he has to chase all fight which is likely then coming in heavy is not a good idea. If he's well conditioned and comes in light he'll still be plenty powerful enough to hurt Usyk. I rate both fighters and I wouldn't be sad if Usyk pulls off an upset but I think it's Joshua's fight to lose.

Will be interesting and informing to see what weight Puzzyfruit comes in at

 

[JayE]

Yeah definitely agree that he has to be switched on for the first half. I think Joshua will be in boxing mode and his height and reach will be advantages. But Usyk will definitely have an advantage in terms of stamina the longer the fight goes. A lot is dependent on if/when Joshua gases. I'd be very surprised to see him come in heavy for this one.

I've always thought he's far better when he's lean. When you're a big enough guy (or really, when you're any size in boxing), excess muscle does absolutely nothing for you.

 

[aries]

I've always thought he's far better when he's lean. When you're a big enough guy (or really, when you're any size in boxing), excess muscle does absolutely nothing for you.

Yeah agreed. I doubt there is much if any loss of power but it gives him mobility and better stamina being leaner.

 

[GoldenAzazel]

 

[Badr Hari]

Nice. Most anticipated fight for me in 2021.

 

[SandisLL]

Hot take alert: Styles make fights and I actually think Mairis Briedis would present more of a stylistic problem for AJ than Usyk.

BTW not because style.
Briedis with weight in 213-14-215lbs was considerably more mobile than at CW.
The problem most likely for him was that he does not generate enough money and therefore he trimmed down to CW again, cos he wasn't mandatory for anyone at HW and get finished for small money isn't HW top boxers career choice.
Ofc now Briedis is long ago over he hill.

A lot is dependent on if/when Joshua gases.

If he will gas like vs Pulev after 3 rd round, then KO is warranted, Matchroom hometown ref and judges & Big Eddie will not help.

Usyk most likely might be happy to have this version of Pulev in the ring for even just 500k, I suspect that Dorticos and Briedis, Gassiev too might be happy with such opponent.
Below Chisora or Parker level and in depth cos Pulev was 39 y.o a bit rusty.
While he was not lighter than Wlad when he was 33 y.o and undefeated had challenged 38 y.o Wlad for a title.

 

[aries]

If he will gas like vs Pulev after 3 rd round, then KO is warranted, Matchroom hometown ref and judges & Big Eddie will not help.

It took Andy Ruiz, who I'm pretty certain hits a lot harder than Usyk, 4 rounds to stop a concussed Joshua after a continued bombardment. I wouldn't be so sure that Usyk can take out just a gassed AJ. AJ took bombs from Klitschko and survived. AJ is no glass jaw and Usyk is no heavy puncher at HW.

 

[Seano]

I still think AJ is the best fight of the big 3 for Usyk in regards to his winning a championship. Fury is too big and will just Kong stomp him, Wilder has too big of a punch for a guy as easy to find as Usyk.

That said, if Usyk doesn't start fighting for 5 rounds like he usually does, he has no shot. I don't think he has the power to stop Joshua.

 

[Badr Hari]

What makes this fight a little bit more intriguing for me is in what shape will Usyk show up. After the Chisora fight he seems to have gained a solid 20 pounds of mass and has been doing strength training like mad. And Joshua lately has trimmed down so I don't expect him to be above 240. 3 inches in height and 10 pounds in weight doesn't make for a David and Goliath match up exactly. They'll look surprisingly close in size inside that ring.

 

[SandisLL]

Usyk is no heavy puncher at HW.

From what kind of fight results it is assumed that Usyk was for example pillow fisted at CW?
He was not able to KO/TKO prime shape Glowacki who then was 2-0 in world title fights.
Glowacki then was able to bear all fight beatup from prime shape Huck and finish him after Huck made 1 mistake he landed on him and quickly used this effect to batter Huck.
For sure also Usyk is pillow fisted cos he barely had won vs then in prime shape Briedis and more impressive had looked his fight vs Gasssiev.
Prime shape Hunter get spanked by pillow fist Usyk in US, sorry, Hunter looks that always till death will be worse than prime Usyk, Huck or even Dorticos or maybe even Tabiti.

concussed Joshua

Concussed in sparring before fight is common excuse for A.J fans.

Had A.J been concussed in sparring also before fight vs Nistor?
Nistor had sparked A.J like a pupp.
Ruiz Jr like Parker appeared not enough OLD for A.J .

A.J is in U.K like Canelo is in U.S and this is more and more boring.
With each day.

 

[SandisLL]

AJ took bombs from Klitschko and survived.

Eddie had booked for A.J beltless, 41 y.o inactive Wlad to sell A.J for fans like you.
Guy who did not had fought more than 12 months before this and was beltless.

Business brand A.J is born in this world.

A.J for sure is world killer cos he had beated Takam via british stoppage.
A.J is champion cos he had get home town officiated fight vs Parker.
Lol. He is so cool champion in uncles beat up in his own backyard.

In US tested A.J had performed according to his natural abilities vs Ruiz Jr.

 

[SandisLL]

It took Andy Ruiz, who I'm pretty certain hits a lot harder than Usyk,

I'm not so sure.
I think that Ruiz Jr does have A level skills and is very leg lazy boxer and lazy boxer.
With fat % like Usyk does have, he might had weighted like Usyk vs Chisora. This, LOL.

Hands speed he maybe does have not lesser than prime Usyk version from WBSS1 Ali trophy tournament with these title belts, Trophy etc : this version.
Legwork: in bottom for top 15 and slow.

40 y.o 238 lbs? Arreola he was not able to finish in distance.

 

[aries]

From what kind of fight results it is assumed that Usyk was for example pillow fisted at CW?
He was not able to KO/TKO prime shape Glowacki who then was 2-0 in world title fights.
Glowacki then was able to bear all fight beatup from prime shape Huck and finish him after Huck made 1 mistake he landed on him and quickly used this effect to batter Huck.
For sure also Usyk is pillow fisted cos he barely had won vs then in prime shape Briedis and more impressive had looked his fight vs Gasssiev.
Prime shape Hunter get spanked by pillow fist Usyk in US, sorry, Hunter looks that always till death will be worse than prime Usyk, Huck or even Dorticos or maybe even Tabiti.


Concussed in sparring before fight is common excuse for A.J fans.

Had A.J been concussed in sparring also before fight vs Nistor?
Nistor had sparked A.J like a pupp.
Ruiz Jr like Parker appeared not enough OLD for A.J .

A.J is in U.K like Canelo is in U.S and this is more and more boring.
With each day.

Because Usyk hasn't put a dent on any HW he's fought. Did nothing to Joyce, did nothing to Chisora. See a pattern?

I didn't say that AJ was concussed from sparring did I? And are you seriously saying Usyk hits as hard as Ruiz?

Nistor? You are using him to sink your own argument. Nistor has a 50% KO ratio as an amateur, he's not feathered fisted. Usyk by comparison has an ammie KO % of 15. LOL

Listen I like Usyk, he's one of my favourite boxers. But a power puncher at HW? Nah. If Wlad who is one of the heaviest punchers all time couldn't put Joshua away then I don't see Usyk doing it either.

 

[aries]

Eddie had booked for A.J beltless, 41 y.o inactive Wlad to sell A.J for fans like you.
Guy who did not had fought more than 12 months before this and was beltless.

Business brand A.J is born in this world.

A.J for sure is world killer cos he had beated Takam via british stoppage.
A.J is champion cos he had get home town officiated fight vs Parker.
Lol. He is so cool champion in uncles beat up in his own backyard.

In US tested A.J had performed according to his natural abilities vs Ruiz Jr.

You are talking nonsense. Old Wlad could still put anyone in the ground if he lands on them, because as everyone knows (except you apparently) power is the last thing to go.

 

[SandisLL]

Nistor? You are using him to sink your own argument? Nistor has a 50% KO ratio as an amateur, he's not feathered fisted. Usyk by comparison has an ammie KO % of 15. LOL

Usyk in ams was point fighter, btw to properly hit him was far more difficult task than to hit pro boxer Usyk's version.
While at CW he had 75% stoppages ratio and all 4 CW boxers he was not able to finish were perviously undefeated as pro boxers, 3 from these were then current and actual champions with belts, 4 th was Hunter.

And are you seriously saying Usyk hits as hard as Ruiz?

Most likely. If HW boxer touted as elite can't finish 40 y.o unlce in 238 lbs Arreola, this is very good measure stick.
Nor Ruiz nor A.J were not able to finish Parker.
Casual A.J problem if opponent isn't enough old.


I don't think that Usyk is KO / TKO artist.
I think that he hits less hard if we are talking about 1 power punch pure physical power than Durodola, Dorticos, Makabu, Gassiev, Briedis, Bellew etc boxers.