Bellator 151 Thread

[weedreference]

I'm considering putting 1u on Tamainglo... little chance of getting finished, he is scrappy, and Kakai is fairly low volume. The only scary aspect is that Kakai was basically dead even with Saenz, who was basically dead even with Faber.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

People making Yamauchi their biggest bet of the year and shit are overreacting. Bubba definietly has paths of victory here. Many underrate him because he's unlikeable and cocky. I'm 2.5 units on Yamauchi, but this is not a blowout by any means.

Idk. Thats def the big question mark. On one hand, Goiti appears to be an amazing grappler, and Bubba has struggled with solid sub attempts. But on the other hand, Jenkins is one of the best wrestlers in the sport, and by far the best grappler Goiti has faced himself. Kobayashi is a boxer, so no surprise Goiti looked so good on the mat.

An argument can be made either way, but for this fight to be anyone's biggest bet of the year is a bit much imo.

Since you guys are referencing my post let me explain quickly. It's March, even with my terrible math I know it's only been two months since 2016 started, I could knock a chick up and have a baby before the year ends (God I hope not but it's possible), so I feel like you two are overreacting to that phrase more than me overreacting by making him my biggest bet of the year. I see a ton of value on Yamauchi -130 so I made him my biggest bet of the year so far which is 4.5u, it's not like I'm throwing out some crazy 8 or 10u bet, but I do really like this match up for him. Not saying anybody's wrong for not agreeing with me on going this big or who like Bubba here but I have a strong lean and I'm gonna go with it, can't be scared of your instincts and my instincts, both head and gut, heavily point to Goiti

I'll come here and eat crow like I always have if I'm wrong but I think this kid is legit, and he's got all the tools to not only win a striking battle but completely outclass Bubba on the ground. He's young and only seems to be improving in all facets of the game. Agree to disagree, I guess, but I trust my capping ability and I'm not gonna lay off a bet if I see a lot of value. We'll see come Friday GL with your bets, gents.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

wish i had kakai -210! i have 4u goiti about even $ net

I have to win a unit on Kakai -230 on top of the Gonzalez and Yamauchi bets I already posted. Glad to see I got in on him before the massive line change. That being said I totally missed out on Caldwell and now he's almost a 4-1 favorite, pissed I didn't pull the trigger when he was much lower.

 

[Ballsaque]

Dude, you dont need to justify your bet to us, lol.. If you like it, you like it. Just think there has been several lines with way more value this year alone. Considering hedging Bubba +170, I think that's off right now. He's just a way way superior athlete.

 

[EzFlyer]

Since you guys are referencing my post let me explain quickly. It's March, even with my terrible math I know it's only been two months since 2016 started, I could knock a chick up and have a baby before the year ends (God I hope not but it's possible), so I feel like you two are overreacting to that phrase more than me overreacting by making him my biggest bet of the year. I see a ton of value on Yamauchi -130 so I made him my biggest bet of the year so far which is 4.5u, it's not like I'm throwing out some crazy 8 or 10u bet, but I do really like this match up for him. Not saying anybody's wrong for not agreeing with me on going this big or who like Bubba here but I have a strong lean and I'm gonna go with it, can't be scared of your instincts and my instincts, both head and gut, heavily point to Goiti

I'll come here and eat crow like I always have if I'm wrong but I think this kid is legit, and he's got all the tools to not only win a striking battle but completely outclass Bubba on the ground. He's young and only seems to be improving in all facets of the game. Agree to disagree, I guess, but I trust my capping ability and I'm not gonna lay off a bet if I see a lot of value. We'll see come Friday GL with your bets, gents.

You already made a great bet. When you get something -130, especially large, and it goes to -200. You can freeroll it, etc. Having that option 100% means a good bet, even if you let it ride and he loses

 

[Joseph Budden]

Since you guys are referencing my post let me explain quickly. It's March, even with my terrible math I know it's only been two months since 2016 started, I could knock a chick up and have a baby before the year ends (God I hope not but it's possible), so I feel like you two are overreacting to that phrase more than me overreacting by making him my biggest bet of the year. I see a ton of value on Yamauchi -130 so I made him my biggest bet of the year so far which is 4.5u, it's not like I'm throwing out some crazy 8 or 10u bet, but I do really like this match up for him. Not saying anybody's wrong for not agreeing with me on going this big or who like Bubba here but I have a strong lean and I'm gonna go with it, can't be scared of your instincts and my instincts, both head and gut, heavily point to Goiti

I'll come here and eat crow like I always have if I'm wrong but I think this kid is legit, and he's got all the tools to not only win a striking battle but completely outclass Bubba on the ground. He's young and only seems to be improving in all facets of the game. Agree to disagree, I guess, but I trust my capping ability and I'm not gonna lay off a bet if I see a lot of value. We'll see come Friday GL with your bets, gents.

All good man, you're a wise bettor, go with what you feel. If I let everyone's opinion shy me away from going so hard on Mystic Mac vs Aldo i'd have much less in my bankroll

 

[EzFlyer]

gonna throw a lil bit on gonzalez +135 (partially cause i see it dropping elsewhere) -- it might be sort of in lieu of other good spots on friday until we get props (and cause i hate titan odds)

so i'm at 4u yamauchi -107 and 0.5u gonzalez +135. that's it so far.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Props out

Warren DEC +445
Gonz DEC +300
Goiti itd +155

 

[EzFlyer]

i did warren-caldwell ITD +155 (i was gonna do +179 caldwell ITD but i like both guys better at 155)

lookin at taimanglo dec... hrmmm +575 isn't bad.. gonna stab a lil there.

i'd be hitting yama ITD +140 or w/e but i'm very happy w/my yama action already

idk on smith-gonz, both guys dec prices seem decent. i wish i got the opener of +298 gonz

 

[Jae Gibbz]

i did warren-caldwell ITD +155 (i was gonna do +179 caldwell ITD but i like both guys better at 155)

lookin at taimanglo dec... hrmmm +575 isn't bad.. gonna stab a lil there.

i'd be hitting yama ITD +140 or w/e but i'm very happy w/my yama action already

idk on smith-gonz, both guys dec prices seem decent. i wish i got the opener of +298 gonz

You obviously got + odds, but I see the main event go to a decision

 

[EzFlyer]

You obviously got + odds, but I see the main event go to a decision

yea i just don't know how to play it. don't think anything wrong w/your warren dec play..

i'm feeling a caldwell darce or something

 

[Joseph Budden]

Hit Jenkins dec and Warren dec

 

[EzFlyer]

gonna hit both guys dec -175 on smith-gonz

 

[Jae Gibbz]

yea i just don't know how to play it. don't think anything wrong w/your warren dec play..

i'm feeling a caldwell darce or something

I think Caldwell is gonna win a DEC. Although all of Warren's losses are by finish, I think Caldwell's going to have trouble finishing top tier guys (Bellator wise)

 

[Joseph Budden]

I think Caldwell is gonna win a DEC. Although all of Warren's losses are by finish, I think Caldwell's going to have trouble finishing top tier guys (Bellator wise)

Agree completely, Warren by dec needs a stab out of principle. This fight could very likely be contested on the feet, Warren is an amazing wrestler too and Caldwell is still developing other aspects of his game. Very interesting fight.

 

[Oblivian]

I'm actually leaning towards inside the distance and would definitely play that if it was 5 rounds. I think this fight will be incredibly high paced with a lot of scrambles. Warren will be going for broke standing too.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Has anybody here ever contacted 5d about Bellator live betting?

 

[Joseph Budden]

Has anybody here ever contacted 5d about Bellator live betting?

No, but that would be amazing

 

[Jae Gibbz]

No, but that would be amazing

I think we should, I do not get why they don't have it. Not enough action on Bellator, maybe? Basically all of their fights are on Spike and it's only 4-5 fights

 

[Joseph Budden]

I think we should, I do not get why they don't have it. Not enough action on Bellator, maybe? Basically all of their fights are on Spike and it's only 4-5 fights

Yeah my guess is not enough action. They'll probably get nothing but hardcores showing up to livebet on Bellator, and wouldn't be surprised if they deem it non profitable to do