Bellator 155 - Carvalho vs Manhoef

Fuck. Jansen +180 right now... I placed when was +145
 
i really don't think jansen is a good play here. held has improved much more since their first fight of the two. jansen has taken "time off" from mma, isn't as committed, etc. he's 36 now...
 
spreads are up.

and lol @ jansen getting hammered right after i bet held again at -180. fml. (i don't care, tho, i like the bet.)

double-lol: carvalho ML is cheaper than carvalho -3.5
 
i didn't really want to bet this fight, but i guess beltran +3.5 -130 is worthwhile. small.
 
u 2.5 rounds Beltran v Gormley, both men have tendencies to get knocked out.
 
Gonna be at the fights tonight if nothing else comes up. I wish they had undercard lines.


Tyler Freeland vs.Joe Hamilton:
I might have to take Joe Via height. Tyler is cool and I actually got him a sponsor for this fight. Shout out to VooDoo Ziplines but he's 5 foot or a little shorter. His camp was at Syndicate MMA though.
Veta Arteaga vs.Jackie Vandenburgh:
I've actually grappled with Veta when she was a blue belt. Not sure what she is now but that was 3 years ago. I believe she took my back once which surprised me. She's a mini Julina Pena. Her brother is a beast too.
I have her by mount tko.
Hamilton Ash vs.Vince Morales:
I got vince by wresting.
Casey Johnson vs.Brendon Raftery:
I got casey by domination possibly sub.
Scott Thometz vs.Josh Tyler:
I'm a little torn on this as Thometz is a beast and just got his black belt in Bjj. I just feel his striking is too stiff.
I think I have to take Thometz by sub or decision.
Olly Bradstreet vs.Jesse Brock:
Got Jesse by Wrestle fuck.
 
don't understand how people are betting manhoef at only +200 here..
 
I just added a lot of bets on this card.

I'll probably post my plays for the last 3 fights during the card, because there are still more bets to make if I win the first few. Not sure how much the bookies look at these threads, they probably do.

Coenen points handicap -3½ -425 (Risk 250 / Win 58.82)

I think Coenen will win, but I will say that it looked like Dufresne was facing stiff competition in the UFC. She went the distance vs both opponents, and one of the opponents went the distance with Holly Holm (3x5). I think Coenen will still probably get the sub, but I think this other chick might lose a decision. The reason I'm going with Coenen obviously is because she is proven and this other chick looked pretty horrible in the few minutes of tape I saw on her. Even when she was fresh her standup looked weak, and thats her only chance to win.

Dave Jansen/Marcin Held Over 2½ -220 (Risk 110 / Win 50)

I was going to bet on Jansen, and I still might. But I see that fight going to the judges. Two guys who are stronger on the ground. I can see the point of people who think Held has improved a lot more than an aging Jansen. I'd have to watch more tape on it, but I just think this one going to decision is a fairly safe wager. I don't think either guy is likely to finish standing or on the ground. I also don't think a 1 yr layoff is that huge a deal, but maybe it is. 1.5 or 2 yrs I think is much more, but it seems like a year is common these days.

Joey Beltran +165*vs Chase Gormley (Risk 50 / Win 82.50)

I think Beltran is a pretty horrible fighter, but I don't think Gromley is any better. I mainly just looked at their records. I don't know too much about Gromley, but his record isn't impressive...he's been TKO'd before. Beltran usually gets finished by pretty decent guys. I think the odds are good here that Beltran could win a decision or get the TKO using clinch boxing. Maybe closer to evens then +165...IMO. We'll see. The going up to HW thing is kind of weird, so I'm not confident here.
 
i swear, we get the weirdest movement on marcin held fights. he went from like +150 to -150 on fight day against sarnavskiy... today he went from -200 down to -150 and is now back at -230... sooo erratic.
 
Bella 155 Risk: 1,282
carvalho: 200 parlays
curran -150: 150 for 100 / curran NSC: 100 for 100 / O2.5: 100 parlays
charles +138: 100 for 137.50
beltran +3.5: 52 for 40
coenen ITD: 200 for 309 / U2.5: 100 for 100
held -165: 330 for 200 / O2.5: 100 parlays
parlays
50 for 55.05 curran-georgi O2.5 -225 & held-jansen O2.5 -220
50 for 48.97 carvalho -270 & held-jansen O2.5 -225
50 for 48.97 carvalho -270 & curran-georgi O2.5 -225
50 for 70 carvalho -250 & campbell -140 (ufn 88)
50 for 46.42 carvalho -250 & larkin-masvidal O2.5 -265 (ufn 88)
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big bellator for me, but man i like some of these plays. i wanted to do held NSC, but looks like we're not getting that prop.
 
Against most on this card...

I have no idea why you guys are liking Charles, the guy is pretty bad and will gas in the first. Sakai is a damn tough guy to finish.

I'm just loving Jansen at +190... very scrappy, very technical sub defense. I could see him getting outstruck, but it will definitely be close.
 
Lol I was planning to hedge my 5u on Carvalho after line movement on Manhoef but now it's going the other way instead >_<
 
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don't understand how people are betting manhoef at only +200 here..

Maybe new betters who are more casuals. He's a popular name because of his style and legendary ko power...his highlight vidoes are fun to show your friends who don't know shit about MMA
 
Wtf Carvalho up to -170 on Marathonbet (Euro)
 
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