I just added a lot of bets on this card.
I'll probably post my plays for the last 3 fights during the card, because there are still more bets to make if I win the first few. Not sure how much the bookies look at these threads, they probably do.
Coenen points handicap -3½ -425 (Risk 250 / Win 58.82)
I think Coenen will win, but I will say that it looked like Dufresne was facing stiff competition in the UFC. She went the distance vs both opponents, and one of the opponents went the distance with Holly Holm (3x5). I think Coenen will still probably get the sub, but I think this other chick might lose a decision. The reason I'm going with Coenen obviously is because she is proven and this other chick looked pretty horrible in the few minutes of tape I saw on her. Even when she was fresh her standup looked weak, and thats her only chance to win.
Dave Jansen/Marcin Held Over 2½ -220 (Risk 110 / Win 50)
I was going to bet on Jansen, and I still might. But I see that fight going to the judges. Two guys who are stronger on the ground. I can see the point of people who think Held has improved a lot more than an aging Jansen. I'd have to watch more tape on it, but I just think this one going to decision is a fairly safe wager. I don't think either guy is likely to finish standing or on the ground. I also don't think a 1 yr layoff is that huge a deal, but maybe it is. 1.5 or 2 yrs I think is much more, but it seems like a year is common these days.
Joey Beltran +165*vs Chase Gormley (Risk 50 / Win 82.50)
I think Beltran is a pretty horrible fighter, but I don't think Gromley is any better. I mainly just looked at their records. I don't know too much about Gromley, but his record isn't impressive...he's been TKO'd before. Beltran usually gets finished by pretty decent guys. I think the odds are good here that Beltran could win a decision or get the TKO using clinch boxing. Maybe closer to evens then +165...IMO. We'll see. The going up to HW thing is kind of weird, so I'm not confident here.