Bellator 248 and Bellator Europe 10

MVP has moved from -450 to about -245, how good is Ross Houston? Seems people think he's got a good shot to win
 
MVP has moved from -450 to about -245, how good is Ross Houston? Seems people think he's got a good shot to win
I remember he had a good scrap with Nick Dalby before the fight was stopped due to the ring turning into a slip-and-slide of blood from both guys. Might be the most ridiculous fight I’ve seen lol. Definitely worth a watch. Sadly that’s all I’ve seen from him.
 
I think Mezhidov is worth a shot at +195. He has underrated and has very good stand up and decent TDD, if Saul Rogers engages too much in the stand up he might be in trouble, plus he might not be able to take this to the ground every round. Granted Mezhidov is not very competent on the ground but he scrambles enough to get back to his feet.
 
Jesus Christ, Kongo is 45!?!? Is that enough of a reason to fade him against Johnson?
 
Johnson has some hype behind him due to his 2-fight winning streak but I dont see him winning this one, at all. He caught Fortune and headbutted Mitrione to win via GnP. His luck will run out against a more experienced fighter who will grind him against the cage and dirty box him.
 
Johnson has some hype behind him due to his 2-fight winning streak but I dont see him winning this one, at all. He caught Fortune and headbutted Mitrione to win via GnP. His luck will run out against a more experienced fighter who will grind him against the cage and dirty box him.

This is an awful take. Timothy Johnson showed massively improved boxing against Fortune; he had been working on his hands a lot, and for that fight, it absolutely showed. Against Mitrione, he displayed a far more potent top game than we've ever seen before.

Also, did you watch the first fight between Kongo and Johnson? Kongo won by catching Johnson coming forward to clinch with a combination.

If Kongo wins the rematch, it certainly won't be by grinding Johnson against the cage and dirty boxing, which is Johnson's own game, and which he can can do at least well enough to neutralize his opponent. It will once again be by exposing Johnson's weak chin, and improved, but still vulnerable defense.

Now, how likely is that with a 45 year-old Kongo who has looked increasingly lethargic and slow in the cage, and throws a punch at a time? I don't know, and I don't feel like guessing.

Also, Johnson could easily play this one safer than he did the first time around, and with his improved skills, try to strike at range and clinch on occasion, and if he avoids the knockout blow, we're headed to a very close decision. Which, incidentally, Kongo had a great number of between 2015 and 2017.

I'll personally pass on this one.
 
Dog parlay of TJ and Houston... hmm.. interesting but nah
 
This is an awful take. Timothy Johnson showed massively improved boxing against Fortune; he had been working on his hands a lot, and for that fight, it absolutely showed. Against Mitrione, he displayed a far more potent top game than we've ever seen before.

Also, did you watch the first fight between Kongo and Johnson? Kongo won by catching Johnson coming forward to clinch with a combination.

If Kongo wins the rematch, it certainly won't be by grinding Johnson against the cage and dirty boxing, which is Johnson's own game, and which he can can do at least well enough to neutralize his opponent. It will once again be by exposing Johnson's weak chin, and improved, but still vulnerable defense.

Now, how likely is that with a 45 year-old Kongo who has looked increasingly lethargic and slow in the cage, and throws a punch at a time? I don't know, and I don't feel like guessing.

Also, Johnson could easily play this one safer than he did the first time around, and with his improved skills, try to strike at range and clinch on occasion, and if he avoids the knockout blow, we're headed to a very close decision. Which, incidentally, Kongo had a great number of between 2015 and 2017.

I'll personally pass on this one.
I'm not sure where you are seeing this Johnson's "improved skills" we have seen him for a little over 5 minutes in his last 2 fights. He blitzes forward throwing punches, I'm not sure how much of an improved striking game that is. Again, the first fight against Fortune he, himself, said he was surprised he won and I think we all were surprised to see him catch Fortune. But props to him for moving forward and being on the offensive. Last fight, he beat a fading 42 year old Matt Mitrione. I'm sorry but I'm not impressed by a victory over Matt Mitrione these days, particularly because the stoppage came right after a headbutt.
I undestand Kongo, himself, is 45 years old so he is no spring chicken but he has turned into a more methodical fighter (boring) but very effective, given that only an Bader has been able to neutralize him (even though the fight was stopped due to an eye poke, I think we all saw the writing in the wall).
Granted, maybe Kongo will not defeat Tim Johnson by grinding against the cage and dirty box him, but I think Johnson is being massively overrated based on his last two fights. Especially considering Johnson is already 35, fighters dont reinvent themselves at 35 tbh, very rarely do we see that.
BTW there is NO way Kongo losses a close decision in France. If the fight is close at all we all know who is winning this fight.
 
I'm not sure where you are seeing this Johnson's "improved skills" we have seen him for a little over 5 minutes in his last 2 fights.

That's the nature of analyzing fighters. You usually don't get hours and hours of tape against every possible style imaginable. On the flip side, you can often tell a hell of a lot in just 5 seconds.

careto said:
He blitzes forward throwing punches, I'm not sure how much of an improved striking game that is.

If that's all you got from his boxing in that fight, I would recommend watching Johnson's fights a lot more closely. I can enumerate what he is specifically doing better technically, although I don't know how much that will mean to you.

careto said:
BTW there is NO way Kongo losses a close decision in France. If the fight is close at all we all know who is winning this fight.

Considering that not a single judge is likely to actually be French and a very tiny crowd to witness it? Not to mention that Bellator has a lot of reason to like Johnson right now and absolutely hate Kongo for how he ruined the Bellator 226 main event? (Which I watched in person, incidentally)

The chances of a robbery in favor of Kongo are very slim indeed.
 
That's the nature of analyzing fighters. You usually don't get hours and hours of tape against every possible style imaginable. On the flip side, you can often tell a hell of a lot in just 5 seconds.



If that's all you got from his boxing in that fight, I would recommend watching Johnson's fights a lot more closely. I can enumerate what he is specifically doing better technically, although I don't know how much that will mean to you.



Considering that not a single judge is likely to actually be French and a very tiny crowd to witness it? Not to mention that Bellator has a lot of reason to like Johnson right now and absolutely hate Kongo for how he ruined the Bellator 226 main event? (Which I watched in person, incidentally)

The chances of a robbery in favor of Kongo are very slim indeed.
You can enumerate all his improvements but again, im not sure how much you can assess it from 5 minutes, some of which happened in the ground against Mitrione. Yes, I have been watching boxing my whole life; its a huge sport in Mexico, I understand terminology, etc. I just dont see any of it in Johnson's past fights.
The fact of the matter is, we dont know who the judges are but regardless this will be a big event in France and the judges dont have to be French to favor the hometown fighter. This literally happens in every sport around the world, in some places more obvious than others.
 
You can enumerate all his improvements but again, im not sure how much you can assess it from 5 minutes, some of which happened in the ground against Mitrione. Yes, I have been watching boxing my whole life; its a huge sport in Mexico, I understand terminology, etc. I just dont see any of it in Johnson's past fights.

He threw punches in bunches better and more cleanly, as opposed to one at a time, fired off a nice short right hook we've never seen before, and was also ducking much more, which improved his defense.

careto said:
The fact of the matter is, we dont know who the judges are but regardless this will be a big event in France and the judges dont have to be French to favor the hometown fighter. This literally happens in every sport around the world, in some places more obvious than others.

"Hometown robberies", which are far from guaranteed anyways (notice the number of Brazilian fighters who have lost close decisions in Brazilian to non-Brazilians, like Jacare vs. Blachowicz or Jacare vs. Gastelum), only happen if the judges are the same nationality as the fighter OR crowd influence. Neither of those will be a factor in the main event.

Anywho, based on what I saw on the scales, I would be happy as a Johnson bettor.

He weighed in at 259 pounds, lighter than his entire Bellator and UFC career, and looked noticeably leaner and fitter.

Meanwhile, Kongo was 245, or 6-9 pounds heavier than his recent Bellator fights.
 
He threw punches in bunches better and more cleanly, as opposed to one at a time, fired off a nice short right hook we've never seen before, and was also ducking much more, which improved his defense.



"Hometown robberies", which are far from guaranteed anyways (notice the number of Brazilian fighters who have lost close decisions in Brazilian to non-Brazilians, like Jacare vs. Blachowicz or Jacare vs. Gastelum), only happen if the judges are the same nationality as the fighter OR crowd influence. Neither of those will be a factor in the main event.

Anywho, based on what I saw on the scales, I would be happy as a Johnson bettor.

He weighed in at 259 pounds, lighter than his entire Bellator and UFC career, and looked noticeably leaner and fitter.

Meanwhile, Kongo was 245, or 6-9 pounds heavier than his recent Bellator fights.
Maybe you have a better eye than me at catching these things, IMO, those things dont concern me too much if I was betting on Kongo (which I am still debating). I think Kongo is a difficult fighter to beat given his style of fighting. He still has heavy hands, he is big and strong, likes to grind against the cage, etc. He makes fights boring but he gets the W. I think strong wrestlers like Bader have a perfect style for beating Kongo but Johnson doesnt bring the same skillset that Bader does.
The scales would be more of a concern to me, given that during the pandemic Johnson has already fought once and is probably in better shape than Kongo, who hasnt fought at all. I probably will be passing on this one but will keep a close eye on the fight.
 
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