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Bellator 262 - Velasquez vs Kielholtz
- Thread starter svmr_db
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Think Golm is a live dog. Expect Vassell to burn himself out wrestling early and then get outworked and outgrappled like against Moldavsky.
Rest of the card seems like it'll play out pretty good for the favs.
Rest of the card seems like it'll play out pretty good for the favs.
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Fortune + Faraldo parlay 2.5u
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Anyone familiar with Benjilany? How's his TDD?
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I would strongly advise against such a bet. I don't understand the comparison to Moldavsky either, who has a much different and far superior skillset to Golm.
If Vassell gets Golm down, the fight is likely over. Vassell is brutal from the top and Golm is terrible off his back.
If Vassell can't get Golm down...he might well win the fight, anyways. Golm has horrible fight IQ and gives up mentally in hard fights. If he can't push through in rounds 3 against either Bhullar or Johnson, how is he going to do so against Vassell?
Not to mention that Vassell's gas tank, while a definite weakness, isn't trivial to exploit. Moldavsky was his first heavyweight bout in a while, and he came in heavier (246 pounds) than his last couple of fights (238 pounds). Moldavsky is also a great, quick scrambler who made Vassell continually work for the takedown and then work even more to keep him down, all problems Golm won't pose. And even then, Moldavsky had to survive for the first 1.5 rounds. If Vassell has enough of a gas tank to win the first 2 rounds, even if Golm survives on the bottom, even if Golm finds the mental fortitude to push hard in the final round...so what? Vassell still wins.
Which ones? There are at least a few favorites I wouldn't even think of touching at their current odds.
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Probably true, and yet, I still have zero interest in betting Fortune.
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Pretty much everyone outside of Avsagarova (since it's too early to tell if she'll be another overhyped pet project or the next Ilima-Lei), and perhaps Soto if Adil's takedown defense isn't awful.
Markes and Mitrione are both incredibly shot and possess zero durability nowadays, Blencowe should outwork Silva, Mattos should take over after Cee Jay gasses himself and that about covers the matches that I think have a realistic chance of an upset.
I'll get back to you on the Vassell/Golm matchup later, after watching some tape. Might be underrating Linton a little due to his age and the fact that, in my opinion, beating Sergei and Markes isn't too impressive nowadays.
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I just looked and he's like -350 so yeah I can't blame you there.
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Mitrione is checked out. He's definitely more of a family man now and I don't think his heart has been in MMA for several years. I've made a killing fading him lately. He'll be 43 years old for this fight too!
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Welp, Golm/Vassell is off.
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I've played fighters at much steeper odds, I just wouldn't with Fortune, even against a washed-up Mitrione who is likely just collecting a paycheck.
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I'd agree and even just with the inherent added variance of HW where one punch KO's are more frequent.
Fortune will likely roll to an easy grapple-f*ck win, but he's raw and not worth trusting as a super steep favorite.
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Bellator 262,
Friday, July 16, 2021,
MMA
parlay
+175
Matheus Mattos -275 "Unconquerable"
Charlie Campbell -380 "Cannibal"
Juliana Velasquez -380
Tyrell Fortune -380
Edited
Friday, July 16, 2021,
MMA
parlay
+175
Matheus Mattos -275 "Unconquerable"
Charlie Campbell -380 "Cannibal"
Juliana Velasquez -380
Tyrell Fortune -380
Edited
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Mattos, Eblen, Velasquez parlay at +108 for me.
Not betting my house on it or anything but I think all should be able to pull out wins.
I thought Mattos looked competitive in his last fight against a killer like Magomedov. Hamilton's better than his record (15-8-0), his last four losses are all against UFC fighters or Magomedov, but at 34 years old I think his chance of surprise upset wins is only decreasing. If Mattos can survive until the third round against pre-UFC Petr Yan, I'm willing to bet he can avoid a KO loss here.
Eblen's been looking dominant in his last few, going up against a 34 year career regional guy in Davis I think he'll impose his will and get the finish in the second. I was reading an interview with Davis from March 2021 and, by his own admission, the 4-3-0 guy he fought last "did a good job of keeping me on the fence" and that he (Davis) has been focusing on a potential boxing bout recently. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but not a good recipe against a mauler of a wrestler from a good camp.
I think Velasquez is going to be too much for Kielholtz. Kielholtz has some judo and kickboxing credentials of her own, but she's smaller and less proven against quality competition. I may just be riding the high of picking her against Macfarlane, but I think Velasquez finishes her on the ground.
Not betting my house on it or anything but I think all should be able to pull out wins.
I thought Mattos looked competitive in his last fight against a killer like Magomedov. Hamilton's better than his record (15-8-0), his last four losses are all against UFC fighters or Magomedov, but at 34 years old I think his chance of surprise upset wins is only decreasing. If Mattos can survive until the third round against pre-UFC Petr Yan, I'm willing to bet he can avoid a KO loss here.
Eblen's been looking dominant in his last few, going up against a 34 year career regional guy in Davis I think he'll impose his will and get the finish in the second. I was reading an interview with Davis from March 2021 and, by his own admission, the 4-3-0 guy he fought last "did a good job of keeping me on the fence" and that he (Davis) has been focusing on a potential boxing bout recently. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but not a good recipe against a mauler of a wrestler from a good camp.
I think Velasquez is going to be too much for Kielholtz. Kielholtz has some judo and kickboxing credentials of her own, but she's smaller and less proven against quality competition. I may just be riding the high of picking her against Macfarlane, but I think Velasquez finishes her on the ground.
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Watched the 17 minute video Bellator dropped on Julianna that showcased highlights from all of her fights, and I've got to say that I'm worried her willingness to strike above all else will be her undoing here. Getting dropped by Rebecca Ruth was a bad look, but to me, worse than anything else, was how nonexistent her head movement when she steps on the gas.
Her value is not worth it to me, Kielholtz should be more than able to time her during one of her flurries, whether Julianna will be able to wear Denise's power will remain to be seen.
Think I'll build a parlay with Eblen, Faraldo, Mattos, Fortune, Blencowe and Sowma and stick with that. Maybe also build one spearheaded by Kielholtz for a small amount of cash.
Her value is not worth it to me, Kielholtz should be more than able to time her during one of her flurries, whether Julianna will be able to wear Denise's power will remain to be seen.
Think I'll build a parlay with Eblen, Faraldo, Mattos, Fortune, Blencowe and Sowma and stick with that. Maybe also build one spearheaded by Kielholtz for a small amount of cash.
If Julianna does fight smart and throws Denise around, then it's her fight to lose however.
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Blencowe via anything she wants, have her in all my parlays
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I'm fairly confident that Juliana Velasquez will get the job done. Although not the most exciting fight, I think her fight vs Ilima-Lei Macfarlane showed she has a very good fight IQ and range management.
Kielholtz is significantly smaller and after rehydration will be at a big strength disadvantage. She weighed in at 124 and has weighed in at less than that for flyweight fights in the past, she clearly doesn't cut much weight. Also of note is she has finished her last 3 fights in the first round, which sounds impressive but she has done so against less than stellar opposition / opponents who fought extremely poorly. Barring a fluke finish I really find it hard to believe that Kielholtz can outpoint Velasquez over 5 rounds.
Kielholtz is significantly smaller and after rehydration will be at a big strength disadvantage. She weighed in at 124 and has weighed in at less than that for flyweight fights in the past, she clearly doesn't cut much weight. Also of note is she has finished her last 3 fights in the first round, which sounds impressive but she has done so against less than stellar opposition / opponents who fought extremely poorly. Barring a fluke finish I really find it hard to believe that Kielholtz can outpoint Velasquez over 5 rounds.
