Bellator 266: Davis vs Romero

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https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/bellator-266-2305

https://www.sherdog.com/events/Bellator-266-Romero-vs-Davis-90191

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellator_266

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/81907-bellator-266-romero-vs-davis
 
Davis and Polizzi at plus money is more than decent, Georgi could be worth a stab even if I do think Saul should be able to decision him.

Given his age, health issues and Phil's commitment to minimizing damage in fights I can't see too clear of a path to victory for Yoel.
 
All in on Phil and Polizzi at + money

I didn't think Khalid looked as good as I expected him to against Aguiar. Adams might be live here.

Georgi might be washed but I cant see him losing to Saul. I'm taking the over either way
 
Bennett might be worth a look as an underdog, would have to tape it a bit but that sticks out to me as warranting further investigation.
 
Romero/Davis is only 3 rounds right?

The FGTD prop at -155 is amazing value is this is a 3 rounder. The odds of this being a staring contest for 15 minutes are MUCH better than the line suggests.
 
Why the Polizzi plays? Neal has a background in wrestling too (two time high school state champ), played football in college (fullback, CSU Pueblo) so he's clearly a solid athlete. I hadn't thought Polizzi looked like much on the feet, didn't seem very active or able to land much of importance against Anglickas. Both Anglickas and Trujillo were able to take Polizzi down (Trujillo twice in the fight that didn't last one round). Also, Polizzi struggled to get Anglickas down, and if I'm remembering right I think Trujillo shucked off one of his attempts too.

Height and reach for Neal and Polizzi are pretty close, 5'11 vs 6'0, 74" vs 72" respectively. Neal is 25-26 years old and Polizzi is 29.

Neal hasn't shown to be any great talent on the feet, so I doubt he keeps it there and risks being vulnerable to a Polizzi takedown. I think he'll follow a similar game plan to what he did against Tyree Fortune (NCAA Div II champion), took him down and overwhelmed him. Is the path to victory that you guys see Polizzi's BJJ?

I think I'm going to parlay Neal (-225) and Murtazaliev (-340) at -117. Adams is coming in on short notice against the Russian, plus seven of his eight wins are by decision so I don't think there's a huge risk of him getting a KO, and Impa Kasanganay was able to ground him during their DWCS bout. Adams is also 33, hasn't fought in a year, and has only fought twice in the last three years. Murtazaliev got some good cage time in against a decent fighter in Fabio Aguiar this year after three years off. I think he takes Adams down and batters him to a clear decision.
 
Shelter said:
Why the Polizzi plays? Neal has a background in wrestling too (two time high school state champ), played football in college (fullback, CSU Pueblo) so he's clearly a solid athlete. I hadn't thought Polizzi looked like much on the feet, didn't seem very active or able to land much of importance against Anglickas. Both Anglickas and Trujillo were able to take Polizzi down (Trujillo twice in the fight that didn't last one round). Also, Polizzi struggled to get Anglickas down, and if I'm remembering right I think Trujillo shucked off one of his attempts too.

Height and reach for Neal and Polizzi are pretty close, 5'11 vs 6'0, 74" vs 72" respectively. Neal is 25-26 years old and Polizzi is 29.

Neal hasn't shown to be any great talent on the feet, so I doubt he keeps it there and risks being vulnerable to a Polizzi takedown. I think he'll follow a similar game plan to what he did against Tyree Fortune (NCAA Div II champion), took him down and overwhelmed him. Is the path to victory that you guys see Polizzi's BJJ?

I think I'm going to parlay Neal (-225) and Murtazaliev (-340) at -117. Adams is coming in on short notice against the Russian, plus seven of his eight wins are by decision so I don't think there's a huge risk of him getting a KO, and Impa Kasanganay was able to ground him during their DWCS bout. Adams is also 33, hasn't fought in a year, and has only fought twice in the last three years. Murtazaliev got some good cage time in against a decent fighter in Fabio Aguiar this year after three years off. I think he takes Adams down and batters him to a clear decision.
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Yeah, ground game is mostly why I'm going with Polizzi. He's very tricky there, and has also fought much better competition than Neal. I think the reason he lost to Anglickas, or rather why he wasn't able to implement his wrestling, was the size disparity which shouldn't be a big concern against Grant. Trujillo, for as underwhelming as he is, can be quite a decent wrestler early, so I don't hold those conceded takedowns against Polizzi.

Hard for me to justify Grant's prize at this point in time. I mean, Fortune's the best guy he fought, right? Tyree's not very good.
 
mkess101 said:
Romero/Davis is only 3 rounds right?

The FGTD prop at -155 is amazing value is this is a 3 rounder. The odds of this being a staring contest for 15 minutes are MUCH better than the line suggests.
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Holy shit. I just placed a very sizable bet on that. I just thought it was going to be at least -300.

Crazier things have happened in the sport but Davis has never been finished and I don't even remember him being hurt (people thought that Nemkov knocked him down but I didn't see it).
Romero is really tentative and I think this fight will be a staring contest with some point fighting from Davis and a couple of scary flurries by Romero.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Davis and Polizzi at plus money is more than decent, Georgi could be worth a stab even if I do think Saul should be able to decision him.

Given his age, health issues and Phil's commitment to minimizing damage in fights I can't see too clear of a path to victory for Yoel.
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Phil is one of the best defensive fighters in MMA and also his kicking should provide issues. I see him bodylocking Yoel quite a bit and getting TDs. I think this might be the only time we see Yoel significantly controlled by a grappler since Brunson fight. Davis kicks are an x factor too when it comes to scoring this.
 
Phil has been at 205 his whole career, Yoel is coming up in weight simply so he doesn't have to cut much weight anymore.

Phil has never been KO'd, has phenomenal cardio, and has a reach advantage, more than likely a strength advantage, and a bjj advantage.

It really wouldn't shock me if he finishes Romero here.

Whoever got him @ +money, good work. I just laid 480 to win 400 on him(-120 on FD) and am incredibly confident in him.

Yoel has been out for a year and a half, Phil didn't look good against Machida, but no one really does. Look at Machida vs Mousasi, Machida has a style that's so much worse for Phil than Yoel does.
 
Shelter said:
Why the Polizzi plays? Neal has a background in wrestling too (two time high school state champ), played football in college (fullback, CSU Pueblo) so he's clearly a solid athlete. I hadn't thought Polizzi looked like much on the feet, didn't seem very active or able to land much of importance against Anglickas. Both Anglickas and Trujillo were able to take Polizzi down (Trujillo twice in the fight that didn't last one round). Also, Polizzi struggled to get Anglickas down, and if I'm remembering right I think Trujillo shucked off one of his attempts too.

Height and reach for Neal and Polizzi are pretty close, 5'11 vs 6'0, 74" vs 72" respectively. Neal is 25-26 years old and Polizzi is 29.

Neal hasn't shown to be any great talent on the feet, so I doubt he keeps it there and risks being vulnerable to a Polizzi takedown. I think he'll follow a similar game plan to what he did against Tyree Fortune (NCAA Div II champion), took him down and overwhelmed him. Is the path to victory that you guys see Polizzi's BJJ?

I think I'm going to parlay Neal (-225) and Murtazaliev (-340) at -117. Adams is coming in on short notice against the Russian, plus seven of his eight wins are by decision so I don't think there's a huge risk of him getting a KO, and Impa Kasanganay was able to ground him during their DWCS bout. Adams is also 33, hasn't fought in a year, and has only fought twice in the last three years. Murtazaliev got some good cage time in against a decent fighter in Fabio Aguiar this year after three years off. I think he takes Adams down and batters him to a clear decision.
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Im parlaying Neal, Neiman, and Murtizaliev
Thesnake101 said:
Yeah, ground game is mostly why I'm going with Polizzi. He's very tricky there, and has also fought much better competition than Neal. I think the reason he lost to Anglickas, or rather why he wasn't able to implement his wrestling, was the size disparity which shouldn't be a big concern against Grant. Trujillo, for as underwhelming as he is, can be quite a decent wrestler early, so I don't hold those conceded takedowns against Polizzi.

Hard for me to justify Grant's prize at this point in time. I mean, Fortune's the best guy he fought, right? Tyree's not very good.
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Take into account Polizzi's null striking and a size difference here, too. Their wrestling will cancel each other out and Neal's size advantage and better striking will edge him a decision.
 
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Neiman via submission at +150 is very tempting. Lemminger will try to keep it standing but if it goes to the ground (which Neiman always finds a way) I think Lemminger will engage him and he is at a clear disadvantage here. This might be worth a stab.
 
Rogers at -120 and FGTD at -135 are solid bets, too.
 
careto said:
Im parlaying Neal, Neiman, and Murtizaliev

Take into account Polizzi's null striking and a size difference here, too. Their wrestling will cancel each other out and Neal's size advantage and better striking will edge him a decision.
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Neal is no Anglickas in terms of size (5'10 to 6'3) nor polish though. He's muscular, and probably quite strong, but his lack of length over Alex does him here imo.

And I really can't stress the difference in strength of schedule. Even Anglickas had Young on his record prior to fighting Polizzi.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Neal is no Anglickas in terms of size (5'10 to 6'3) nor polish though. He's muscular, and probably quite strong, but his lack of length over Alex does him here imo.

And I really can't stress the difference in strength of schedule. Even Anglickas had Young on his record prior to fighting Polizzi.
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Fair assessment, Neal hasnt fought faced strong opposition, yet. This is his toughest test to date. I just think Neal is a bad match up for Polizzi; he is big and athletic, and can match Polizzi's wrestling. Neal might not be as physically gifted as Anglickas but he is bigger and stronger than Polizzi. Remember, Polizzi is basically an overblown MW and usually tips the scales at 200-202.

I wont be surprised if Polizzi pulls it off but I will be surprised if it doesnt go to a decision.
 
careto said:
Fair assessment, Neal hasnt fought faced strong opposition, yet. This is his toughest test to date. I just think Neal is a bad match up for Polizzi; he is big and athletic, and can match Polizzi's wrestling. Neal might not be as physically gifted as Anglickas but he is bigger and stronger than Polizzi. Remember, Polizzi is basically an overblown MW and usually tips the scales at 200-202.

I wont be surprised if Polizzi pulls it off but I will be surprised if it doesnt go to a decision.
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I think a lot of the issue that Polizzi had with Anglickas was that he was getting pieced up on the feet which was causing him to rush the takedowns when engaging. I'm not confident enough to back Alex with any money here I don't think, but I'd cautiously say he should do better against Neal than he did against Anglickas. He's also finished fights with heel hooks etc which suggests that he's embraced his BJJ so he might well have something off his back even if we haven't really seen it yet.
 
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