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Bettors Regret (Constructive Criticism Welcome)

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Larthus, Apr 14, 2019.

  1. Larthus Orange Belt

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    Serious question to any better who has been in this position (im sure many of you have)

    Last night I had a 6 way parlay between Botelho Rountree Frevola Griffin Adesanya & Poirier that would’ve netted me 30K, life changing money for me I’m in my early 20s. I decided to cancel it at the last minute as it was a small part of my BR but figured it would most likely result in a loss (I was wrong)

    I still had a vastly successful night by favoring discipline in single bets > a long shot parlay of mostly underdogs but I can’t stop thinking about the money I ~could~ have made

    My question is - how do you all handle situations like this & do any of you have advice for me in terms of long-term ROI?
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2019
  2. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    It's a typo, isnt't it? You wrote Holloway, you wanted to write Poirier?

    I didn't have such situation, sorry. I had situations where I had initial well thought trough plan where I have selected like 2-3 way parlays, but last minute had to add one or two fighters because the odds changed or I lost some money on other bets and had to bet less than planned. So almost every time that I added some fighter I lost. And If I didn't deviate from the plan I would've won. I think just one time I would've lost either way.

    Never in my life I've won a single lottery ticket bet with all underdogs. I think one time I bet 10 out of 12 fighters in the card (some faves some dogs) and just lost two. This is the closest I was to win such bet. I woul've won around 3000$, it was a 10 bucks bet.
     
  3. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    That sucks man. Really bad. But honestly, you'd be best to forget about as soon as you can unless there was a real reason to learn from it beyond simply saying "I could have hit it". You don't want to have it affecting you're wagering going forward as you're just opening yourself up to mistakes. If you bet a parlay in the near future only do it because you think it is the right play to make at the time you do so. Not because you didn't hit this one last night. We all have stories of "woulda, coulda, shoulda" which really don't do us any favours. Like I mentioned, that type of thinking (which I'm as guilty of as anybody I know, but getting better at) creates mistakes and also creates doubt. We'd like to avoid having either as much as we can.

    But great job off capping last night, L. And by the looks of it, you made out okay in the end anyways. Feel good about that instead.
     
  4. Larthus Orange Belt

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    Oh yeah, whoops I just edited that. Definitely meant to type Dustin.
     
  5. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    If you felt the need to cash out you probably bet too much for a longshot lotto parlay. I often do one every card but keep the stakes very small as I only expect to hit a couple per year.
     
  6. ApplesVild Banned Banned

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    I was one fight off getting the whole card on the Justin vs Barboza event. If Barzola had win a 11/12 man parlay would have came in, but who cares? It never, he lost and that's it. Have to just move on.

    Take ten dollars each card, make up 10 ten man parlays and put a dollar on each. If one hits you make a good pay out, if they all miss (99% chance they do) it's no big loss.

    Do it every card for the year, and over the course of the year two or three might not if you're lucky and you'll make your money back and some more, but I don't think any regular gambler would recommend big parlays, they're lottery tickets and will result in losses the vast majority of the time.

    Better off taking your 5 or 6 guys you like for a parley and betting them all as singles.
     
  7. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    The lesson to take from this is simple: trust your reads. Many many times, I've considered hedging on fights I was reasonably confident on, either to ensure myself a profit or reduce risk.

    I very rarely end up doing so, and in the instances where I have, I end up regretting it. Most of the time, it merely saps one's profits, nothing else. Similarly, if you felt good enough about the parlay to make it in the first place and it wasn't a huge portion of your bankroll, believe in your reads and let it ride.
     

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