Boxing Discussion III

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Ugas bet down from +168 to -105 on 5Dimes with Perella at -125 now.
 
Wow. Ugas actually bet up from +133 before to +180 on sportsbook now - Sorry i use decimals in our betting over here!

Perella now moved to $1.40.

Ah i will put a fiver on Ugas now. Originally was on Perella as he came off a good win, that opponent had a good ko win over undefeated fighter.

Hope ugas win over James was a sign.
 
Took Ugas at -105. He won me money against James so we'll take him again.
 
Would've bet Ugas at decent +money not so sure now.


Have Clev +200 for this weekend, understand the fight's in Germany where Cleverly could get robbed and Braehmer never been stopped but I still see value on Clev at around 2-1. This is a close fight and I'm willing to take a chance at the scores not going my way at current prices.

Braehmer is old and Cleverly is a very active fighter volume wise, he's a much better fighter down at 175, he's been off for about a year but that's probably a good thing considering the last fight was a war with Fonfara where he acquitted himself very well despite losing the Dec. Braehmer was supposed to fight Clev years ago but pulled out at the last min as he did against Shumenov. Not saying he ducked out but he's known to be kind of a headcase in general so it wouldn't surprise me if that was the case. Both times he was supposed to leave Germany to fight which he never does which adds credence to the fact that he really wasn't sick/injured before those fights like he claimed.

I just think this fight is much closer than the odds indicate, even with a decent chance of a bad Dec. Cleverly's been in there with the better comp despite being 8 years younger, I like the style match up for him, etc. Had to bet him here, definitely not laying the juice on Braehmer here, that's for sure. I'm happy with 1u on Clev maybe up it to 1.5u, I know it's risky but think taking the gamble is worth it at the current price. Draw bet worth a sprinkle too, imo have a small flier on that at 20-1.
 
Alright was watching tape on Perrella since I don't remember him all too well but God damn I'm impressed with this kid, man. Didn't even have to watch much tape before I could tell he was the real deal. I know he was fighting cans and Ugas is a big step up in comp but this dude has all the tools to be a really good fighter. His jab is sick, his hook his sick, he's got a really good left hand as well, goes to the body very well. He's got a lot of power, he fights tall, he can counter, he uses distance well. I think there's definite value now that his line's dropped to -125/-135.

If Ugas pulls this out I'll eat crow as I always do with these big plays I advocate, but even though I haven't seen a whole lot of tape on the guy I can tell he's got talent and I think he's got a good future if he fights as well against the upper echelon guys like he does against the cans (which is admittedly a pretty big if). Ugas has more pop than his record indicates, he's durable, but he's not the prospect that everybody thought he was earlier in his career.

Risky bet here but decided to put 2.5u on Perrella -125. If he fails stepping up I'll take the L but man I think there's value here. I'm well acquainted with Ugas and he's a talented dude but I'm on the Perrella train right now, just watching him against a few bums I'm extremely impressed by him. Don't know why I didn't make a note of him earlier or if I just missed his fights (could've sworn I know the name, though, but whatever). Anyway pretty big bet on Perrella, could be missing something and lose a good amount tonight, but I'm willing to take the risk here at close odds.

edit: upped it to 3u perrella -125. Really risky bet, I almost never go 3u on untested prospects stepping up like this but I like the kid, fuck it, going with my gut here.
 
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I remember Perella from at least one of his previous bouts. I think BT has a good read on this as well. I'm going to take him as a small favorite.

Bryant Perrella (-125) vs Yordenis Ugas $125.00 for $100.00
 
Just to clarify don't advocate anybody going anywhere near 3u or following in general, just giving my opinion. Hopefully my lean is correct and he doesn't lose this shit. GL Jim.
 
I've known for months now that I'll be betting 10 units on Ward to beat Kovalev, and the time is coming to pull the trigger

Do you guys think the odds will get better though? I'm absolutely fine with the -125 I can get right now, but I'd be pissed if they got higher.
 
Brick Top said:
I've known for months now that I'll be betting 10 units on Ward to beat Kovalev, and the time is coming to pull the trigger

Do you guys think the odds will get better though? I'm absolutely fine with the -125 I can get right now, but I'd be pissed if they got higher.
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Mind giving your reasoning on this? I'm just a casual boxing fan but I'm thinking about a play on Ward too
 
t6p said:
Mind giving your reasoning on this? I'm just a casual boxing fan but I'm thinking about a play on Ward too
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Too tired to write much but great boxers usually make great punchers look silly and that's exactly what I think will happen here. I think Ward handily wins by decision and have done for months
 
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Wow, Ugas dominated and KO'ed Perella easily.
 
Wow that was embarrassing for both Perrella and me. fucking terrible read by me. Sorry to anyone who tailed that. I took a 3u loss and it wasn't even close. ugas completely exposed him.
 
Ugas looked even better during that fight then he did vs James. Guy is very good.
 
Brick Top said:
I've known for months now that I'll be betting 10 units on Ward to beat Kovalev, and the time is coming to pull the trigger

Do you guys think the odds will get better though? I'm absolutely fine with the -125 I can get right now, but I'd be pissed if they got higher.
Click to expand...

I'd break the units up. Maybe 7 ML & 3 Ward decision
 
While I'm not going big. I do think I like award. I'm thinking the over also.

I think Kovalev will have trouble landing clean on Ward.
 
I really like Ward as a slight favorite, that being said I hate tying money up this far out from a fight considering everything that could happen in the interim regarding rumors of guys being out of shape, injuries, etc.
 
SBJJ said:
I'd break the units up. Maybe 7 ML & 3 Ward decision
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That's usually about the ratio I do when I like a side to win and probably win by decision, 2 or 3 units on the ML to 1 by deicison.
 
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