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Boxing Discussion IV

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 1, 2017.

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  1. CR0W BOXING

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    CR0W's Boxing Tips

    Just wanted to get my picks (so far) up now for you guys in case I don't get time this weekend. Already got off to a good start with the 4.00 winner today, a great few weekends recently so let's hope we can keep it up and make big profit again.

    Value Singles

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    Paul Malignaggi DEC @ 2.87

    Malignaggi is definitely past his best but there are levels to Boxing and he is still the far superior technical boxer in this fight. Eggington has wins over a few decent domestic names and could pose a threat being the bigger man here but he was outclassed and outboxed by Skeete and this could end up the same, especially if he finds himself dropping the first 4-5 rounds. There is the possibility that Malignaggi is more shot that I think and Eggington stops him but I just don't see it here; Malignaggi's last loss is to the world class Danny Garcia and Eggington is not anywhere near that level. Usually it Eggington being the "home" guy would worry me going to a scorecard but Malignaggi is liked in the UK, does commentary for Sky Sports etc so I don't think he will be robbed on the scorecards should be outbox Eggington, there's certainly decent value in the bet.
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    Ohara Davies to win between rounds 4-6 @ 5.50

    Ohara is a fairly solid prospect, good power but still very raw. On the other hand his opponent Derry Matthews is on the decline and I like many people believe he should have retired after the beating Luke Campbell put on him. For me this is simply a classic crossroads fight which could and likely should be Ohara Davies' coming out party. Davies beat Scarpa dominantly over 12 rounds but was frustrated he didn't get the finish, the difference here is although Matthews can pack a mean punch he is definitely way past it and I don't think he'll be able to handle the power of the younger man, not for long anyway. Decent value here too. A safer line for anyone wanting to add it as parlay fodder is Davies by (T)KO @ 1.66.
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    David Haye to win between 4-6 @ 3.25

    Already discussed this so not doing a write up. I think Haye is just too much for Bellew, too skilled and too powerful. Bellew has heart and will likely rise up if he gets dropped once or twice early on but I can't see him lasting beyond 6 so this represents good value to me.
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    Chad Dawson to beat Andrzej Fonfara @ 4.33

    I used to be a big Chad Dawson fan, at one time considered the future at Light Heavyweight. This is literally the definition of a loser leaves town match. Dawson's biggest mistake was draining down to 168 to take a beating from Ward, he's mentally inconsistent and he is rightfully the underdog here against Fonfara. Dawson has started a mini comeback after a hugely disappointing loss to Karpency but this will be a massive step back up. Fonfara was coming off 2 good wins before he knocked out by big underdog Joe Smith Jr. (who went on to TKO Bernard Hopkins) in round 1. Really Fonfara should spark Dawson early and likely will but if Dawson is mentally prepared and 100% dedicated to this he has a chance; especially as we have yet to see how Fonfara fights after his big KO loss. I don't see Dawson stopping Fonfara but he could take a wide decision in the right circumstances, so Dawson via DEC @ 7.00 is very much playable too.
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    Keith Thurman DEC @ 2.30

    To put it plain I just see this coming in. I'm a big Thurman fan, this could be a very fun fight and hopefully will be. Decent enough value on it too. Thurman should be able to box from the outside and has more tools than the always game Garcia. This could be dangerous if Danny can get inside and work, I think he the slightly bigger power puncher. This is great match making, 2 exciting unbeaten guys and it should be a very even contest. Whether Garcia can handle Thurman's body shots is another question in this one; Thurman does some lovely work to the body.
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  2. HeDucking Im so Groovy Banned

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    I really wanna play Danny Garcia at +200 or 3.00 and Garcia dec at +400 or 5.00, but youre on the opposite side shit,
     
  3. CR0W BOXING

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    Hey man if feel it you might as well go for it, I don't think Garcia will stop Thurman so you could definitely say there is also value in Garcia DEC at them odds providing he can implement his gameplan early and get inside.
     
  4. HeDucking Im so Groovy Banned

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    Garcia has amazing bodyshots but we've seen Keith handle huge bodyshots before. Too me this fight is close to pick em, Ill go with Garcia dec for a unit.
     
  5. CR0W BOXING

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    Garcia has some great bodywork but with that said Thurman has very underrated body work too, very exciting fight!
     
  6. HeDucking Im so Groovy Banned

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    Honestly very confused as to way why Thurman is a -250 favorite? Its a pickem. That Garcia decision line at 5.00 is nuts aswell.
     
  7. quincy k Brown Belt

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    even if you believe that their skillsets makes this fight a pickem you have to factor in that new york-based dbe is the promoter here and dsg is not co-promoting

    if the fight goes to the cards and its close my guess is that keith will still be at least a -150 due to this alone.
     
  8. HeDucking Im so Groovy Banned

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    Garcia seems to always be on the favourable side of decisions though.
     
  9. quincy k Brown Belt

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    yes, and thats one of the reasons why ive been wanting to fade him. i believe peterson beat him even after starting slow and giving garcia way too much respect and herrera also was a very questionable win

    i think thurman clearly beats him the first half of the fight. its one thing to sit in the pocket and exchange with zab, lamont and amir and another to do the same against keith thurman

    [​IMG]


    career 140-pounder lamont peterson put a hurting on danny garcia
     
  10. null Gold Belt

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    I'm with you on a lot of these Cr0w as you can see from my previously posted bets, except I hope Haye gets the early stoppage in rounds 1-3 if Bellew doesn't pull off the miracle upset. I'm on Garcia as well over Thurman and still waiting to see the Garcia + points prop. I feel like a got a really great price on Malignaggi ML at +205, better than the decision prop you posted; and also on Dawson ML. I have a lot of boxing bets for this weekend already, so I am going to have to summarize before Saturday morning, but I added some new ones.

    Ohara Davies wins inside distance (-138) vs Derry Matthews $55.20 for $40.00
    Ohara Davies wins in round 4-6 (+400) ~$12.80 for ~$51.20

    Danny Garcia wins by split decision (+1000) $10.00 for $100.00
    Keith Thurman wins by split decision (+850) $15.00 for $127.50
    Danny Garcia/Keith Thurman will have a knockdown in the bout (-118) ~$51.20 for ~$43.39
    Danny Garcia/Keith Thurman both fighters will be knocked down (+900) ~$12.80 for ~$115.20
     
  11. piglord Black Belt

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    i didn't even realise malignaggi was fighting this weekend, cool.

    i remember watching eggington's last fight and wasn't overly impressed - wasn't he losing to gavin before he landed the knockout shot?

    paulie should have the better skillset but i wonder what shape he's in at age 36.
     
  12. piglord Black Belt

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    sounds okay to me...

     
  13. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Eggington is not a technical boxer. The question is how hungry is Paulie cos he should out box this kid.
     
  14. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Glad to see you are on Paulie as i've been eyeing him. Like you say the main concern is just how shot is he. I've put £200 on his ml as opposed to dec there's only .25 points difference and last weeks 12th round stoppage should be fresh in everyone's mind. I will look to add more on live bet. Im tempted to add more but i will hold off just in case he is done.
     
  15. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    For anyone that has Pinnacle or Betsafe they seem to have better odds than other bookies on these two lines that CR0W is on:
    Malignaggi ML +195 on Pinnacle
    Thurman DEC +155 on Betsafe
     
  16. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Cheeseman KO + Allen KO + Paulie ml + Davies KO + Haye KO +1100

    Davies KO -110 at Betfair
     
  17. CR0W BOXING

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    Yeah he could very well be shot beyond what people think but best to wait the early rounds out and see. I took the little bit extra odds just purely down to I'd be genuinely shocked to see Malignaggi stop someone, never mind a much bigger opponent who's tough. Like you say though, crazier things have happened but I'll definitely be watching the LB too.

    Worth noting, I'm aware there are better odds than the ones I state in my tips but I just use them as a rough guide off my bookies as I write it up.
     
  18. Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    Half unit on Danny 11 toes.
     
  19. Boxiana Brown Belt

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    Haye Bellew finishing in under 6.5 rounds seems a decent bet at 4/7, but not much value.
     
  20. pytycrys Purple Belt

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    Sellars +1000 vs Cheeseman? Two unproven prospects, both of them...
     
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