International Brexit Discussion v9: The Last Extension

[Arkain2K]

I’ll give it a whack. There’s basically three ways this plays out. The most likely is that neither the Republic, nor England build a hard border. This will lead to Ireland being removed from the EU single market, causing them to rely on the mercy of Brussels for their economic future and ruining any potential relationship between the Irish and English for the foreseeable future. You’ll also most likely see a rearming of paramilitaries, although it’ll be to a lesser extent. The next most likely scenario is that, as Brexit nears and the no deal exit becomes more likely, dissident Republican groups will start to rearm en masse when it becomes apparent they’ll be considered UK citizens again. As they smuggle arms across the border, the British will have to instill their own hard border for national security, leading to a return of the Troubles. The final option is that the Republic caves, and builds the hard border themselves. Not only will this be disastrous for the Good Friday Agreement, but by closing one of the primary ways agriculture is exported out of the country, the Republic would be economically shooting itself in the foot. Which of these outcomes is the “good” one that the Irish should be happy about?

Thank you for your opinion.

Now we are actually addressing the possibilities of what may happens comes Oct 31st.

 

[jonharrison]

Thank you for your opinion.

Now we are actually addressing the possibilities of what may happens comes Oct 31st.

The real question is, what happens to Sinn Fein? How will the UK handle a political party that is Irish, considers themselves Irish, flys the tricolor, and has the political representation of half the population, many of whom believe strongly in collusion between the British police, military, and Loyalist paramilitaries? Do they allow Sinn Fein to try to vote NI back into the Republic? Do they outlaw the party? How is that handled?

 

[Arkain2K]

The real question is, what happens to Sinn Fein? How will the UK handle a political party that is Irish, considers themselves Irish, flys the tricolor, and has the political representation of half the population, many of whom believe strongly in collusion between the British police, military, and Loyalist paramilitaries? Do they allow Sinn Fein to try to vote NI back into the Republic? Do they outlaw the party? How is that handled?

I honestly think if Brexit can't get N.I and Scotland to go on their way, nothing will.

From what I can observe, even though a large contingent of N.I voters are not happy about Brexit, most of the country is still very much Unionists.

On the other hand, if there's a second independent referendum right now, I'm pretty sure Scotland will not make the same decision they did several years ago.

 

[jonharrison]

I honestly think if Brexit can't get N.I and Scotland to go on their way, nothing will.

From what I can observe, even though a large contingent of N.I voters are not happy about Brexit, most of the country is still very much Unionists.

On the other hand, if there's a second independent referendum right now, I'm pretty sure Scotland will not make the same decision they did several years ago.

Sure, but if the vote were to happen, and NI remained, what would happen to Sinn Fein? Can a political party that actively campaigns for separatism be allowed to remain a part of the British government? I just don’t see how Brexit plays out without a return to the Troubles. Basically any way this plays out, there’s going to be a return of the bombings, shootings, and soldiers deploying to the streets. What’s the solution where that doesn’t happen?

 

[Teen Wolf]

From what I can observe, even though a large contingent of N.I voters are not happy about Brexit

Large? NI voted to remain in the EU. So people might say it’s the will of the people to stay in...

 

[deise69]

It's actually incredible how you could type out so much, yet actually said so little about what I asked.

This rant would actually means something had I asked you "who do you think is responsible for Brexit?". But I did not.

My question was simple: "Who would actually build the hard E.U border, if both the Irish and British governments refuse to do it?"

Private company, public agency, E.U government, any real answer or guess would do.

But no, it went right back to rehashed variations of "The British wanted Brexit!" that have been repeated for at least 8 threads.

So once again, you basically wasted my time and yours, rehashing things that everyone already know that actually had nothing to do with the question you quoted.

You will definitely get a few Likes for your effort though, there seems to be a handful of folks here who rather enjoy this Groundhogs Day kind of discussion, where a bunch of angry guys venting their frustration by keep repeating the same thing, over and over and over again, even when it has absolutely nothing to do with the post they reply to.

But that's not really a discussion now, is it?

The thing is you're not actually looking for information, you're looking for confirmation of your own agenda. The minute Ireland starts to look at building any sort border infrastructure Brexiteers will use it as an excuse to go "Look Ireland is building a border and the WA is just a trap to keep the UK tied to the EU".

Coveney saw this coming months ago and explained it clearly.

 

[JDragon]

The thing is you're not actually looking for information, you're looking for confirmation of your own agenda. The minute Ireland starts to look at building any sort border infrastructure Brexiteers will use it as an excuse to go "Look Ireland is building a border and the WA is just a trap to keep the UK tied to the EU".

Coveney saw this coming months ago and explained it clearly.

Well while this is true and while I was also pointing out the transparent tactics of BJ, the fact remains: Ireland would have to ensure that all people crossing the border are registered and checked, irrespective of citizen status, and that all goods crossing the border can go through the customs process. There is no explicit necessity for a hard border, but I cannot imagine a different solution that brings the same result.

 

[Arkain2K]

Look, I know you guys are angry at the Brits, I really do. But this "Are you with us or with them??" mentality that you bring is not very constructive to the conversation at all, especially when you're actually talking to people from the outside world, not your "enemies".

The thing is you're not actually looking for information, you're looking for confirmation of your own agenda.

And what do you think is my "agenda" is, after reading through the nine Brexit threads that I create and maintain? Did the Thread Index in each OP give you any idea as to where I stand?

Did you read the conversations between @JDragon and I when we called out all the sheep who subscribed to Boris' Cakeism on the Single Market but had no idea how the Four Freedoms works two years ago?

The simple truth here is that when you are angry, you can read but you can't comprehend, you can't comprehend and so you used your imagination. And it's a rather poor imagination at that.

Long before you shows up in our discussion, I was once called a Remainer, for the very same reason that you're calling me a Brexiteer right now.

You angry people are acting exactly like those dumb Democrats and Republicans in the U.S-centric threads, where partisan hacks who are so passionate about their stance, they just can't comprehend the simple fact that there are people watching who are neither on "their side" nor their "opponent's side", who just want to cut through all the grandstanding just to get to the cold hard facts as to what's REALLY going to happen, and so they choose to make opponents out of the people who refuse to participate in anyone's circle jerk.

For anyone who are new to the discussion and want to catch up on my pragmatic stance as an American about the U.K leaving the E.U, go back to June 22, 2016 and find out for yourself:

Lefty Guardian is pushing the "concerning American friends" card rather heavily before the vote:

American friends fear UK voters may back Brexit for all the wrong reasons
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...dum-brexit-sir-peter-westmacott-ambassador-us

Brexit fallout: seven ways the EU referendum could damage US interests
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/20/european-union-referendum-brexit-us-world

Brexit: from an American perspective, there is only one good outcome
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-referendum-american-perspective-bad-outcomes


They're not wrong, by the way.

I, too, prefer the U.K to remains in the E.U. The same sentiment is shared by most of our economists and leaders.

But I openly admits that opinion is based mostly on American interests. Frankly speaking, the United States have virtually NOTHING to gain and A LOT to lose in the case of Brexit.

Economically speaking, the Dollar as well as the New York stock market will take a giant hit immediatekly after Brexit. Even after that subside, we will also have to wade through all the red tapes to build from scratch another gateway to conduct business with the European markets in the future. It's not a coincident that English-speaking, American-friendly places like London in Europe, Hong Kong in Asia, and Dubai in the Middle East were chosen by American companies to be our financial hubs to do business in the region. Let this be clear: there WILL be an enormous flight of capital, but it's unclear which European country will benefits most from London's decline.

Politically speaking, we will lose our greatest representative in the E.U if Britain packs up bags and leave. We fully understand that when the U.S slaps economic sanction on some thug for bullying their neighbors, it is often the U.K who drags the rest of Europe to follow suit, no matter how big and scary that thug may be.

(I would mention Military as well, but we both know your arm forces got utterly annihilated by repeated budget cuts, and no one ever brought up the possibility of using the billions of dollars you sent to the E.U annually to resuscitate the once-proud Royal Navy back to life, so we'll skip that topic for now.)

In or Out, the U.S and the U.K would still be allies, but everyone knows your strategic value drops like a rock if you can no longer call any shots in Europe, while Germany's influence in the E.U suddenly doubles overnight. This is also the reason why the countries with even more negative opinion for the E.U (like France and Greece) wants the U.K to stay and help fixing the E.U's many problems, rather than pick up and leave.

That being said, I understand why so many British want to leave this experiment for "an ever-closer political union" with a bunch of countries that you don't have anything in common with, many don't share your core values, and some shouldn't even be in the E.U in the first place.

It would be incredibly hypocritical for an American to tell British how to vote in this extraordinary referendum, which I think is the most important vote that you will ever have in this lifetime.

If our positions were swapped, no sane American would ever agree to wide-open passport-free U.S borders to Latin America, relocating our Supreme Court to Quebec, and allow our laws to be determined by the Organization of American States. Any politician in Washington who would even mention such treasonous ideas should be locked up, with a choice between a mental institution or a SuperMax prison.

So when you British cast your vote tomorrow, pay no mind to what us American think on this side of the pond. Weigh all the Pros and Cons and do what you truly think is best for YOUR nation's interests in the long run!

That's my agenda as an American, not what purely exists in your Irish imagination.

 

[Arkain2K]

The U.K. and South Korea on Thursday are due to sign a continuity deal to ensure the two nations continue to trade on preferential terms after Britain leaves the European Union.

The new free trade agreement replicates "as far as possible" the terms of the existing EU-South Korea deal that was signed in 2011, the U.K. Department for International Trade said in an emailed statement. Trade Secretary Liz Truss and Korean Minister of Trade Yoo Myung-hee are due to sign the deal in London, it said.

Britain has been working to protect trade relationships it enjoys through EU trade deals by rolling those terms over to apply after Brexit. In total, deals accounting for 89 billion pounds ($108 billion) of trade have now been struck. The South Korean agreement is one of the biggest to date, protecting trade between the two nations worth 14.6 billion pounds -- more than 1% of Britain’s commerce.

Yoo said in the U.K. statement that the signing "will remove much Brexit uncertainty out of our long, valuable economic partnership."

Some 6,900 British businesses export goods to Korea, according to the trade department. Thursday’s agreement is now subject to domestic legislative procedures in both countries before it can come into force. It’s designed to take effect on Brexit day, which is currently scheduled for Oct. 31. Until then, trade between the two nations is covered by the EU deal.

 

[Arkain2K]

 

[MayhemMonkey]

And what do you think is my "agenda" is, after reading through the nine Brexit threads that I create and maintain? Did the Thread Index in each OP give you any idea as to where I stand? Did you read the conversations between @JDragon and I when we called out all the sheeps who subscribed to Boris' Cakeism two years ago? Or the cowardly Paliament that turned down anything and everything put on front of them?

you are pro brexit.... so your agenda on this subject is pretty obvious to anyone that was in the PBP thread the day of the referendum.

stop pretending to be neutral

 

[Arkain2K]

Boris Johnson warns Trump US must compromise to get UK trade deal

The US must lift restrictions on UK businesses if it wants a trade deal with the UK, Boris Johnson has said.

Travelling to the G7 summit in Biarritz, France, the PM said there were "very considerable barriers in the US to British businesses".

Mr Johnson said he had already spoken to President Donald Trump about his concerns, adding he would do so again when they meet on Sunday morning.

The prime minister will also hold talks with EU Council President Donald Tusk.

"There are massive opportunities for UK companies to open up, to prise open the American market," Mr Johnson said.

"We intend to seize those opportunities but they are going to require our American friends to compromise and to open up their approach, because currently there are too many restrictions."

Offering an example of a restriction, Mr Johnson said: "Melton Mowbray pork pies, which are sold in Thailand and in Iceland, are currently unable to enter the US market because of, I don't know, some sort of food and drug administration restriction."

He continued: "UK bell peppers cannot get into the US market at all.

"Wine shipments are heavily restricted. If you want to export wine made in England to the US you have to go through a US distributor.

"There is a tax on British micro-breweries in the US that doesn't apply to US micro-breweries in the UK."

Last month, President Trump said talks about a "very substantial" trade deal with the UK were already under way.

He said a bilateral post-Brexit deal could lead to a "three to four, five times" increase in current trade - but provided no details about how that would be achieved.

However, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, said a UK-US trade deal would not get through Congress if Brexit undermined the Good Friday Agreement.

Ms Pelosi said the UK's exit from the EU could not be allowed to endanger the 1998 Irish peace deal, which the US helped facilitate.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49462613

 

[JohnnySagebrush]

Boris Johnson warns Trump US must compromise to get UK trade deal

The US must lift restrictions on UK businesses if it wants a trade deal with the UK, Boris Johnson has said.

Travelling to the G7 summit in Biarritz, France, the PM said there were "very considerable barriers in the US to British businesses".

Mr Johnson said he had already spoken to President Donald Trump about his concerns, adding he would do so again when they meet on Sunday morning.

The prime minister will also hold talks with EU Council President Donald Tusk.

"There are massive opportunities for UK companies to open up, to prise open the American market," Mr Johnson said.

"We intend to seize those opportunities but they are going to require our American friends to compromise and to open up their approach, because currently there are too many restrictions."

Offering an example of a restriction, Mr Johnson said: "Melton Mowbray pork pies, which are sold in Thailand and in Iceland, are currently unable to enter the US market because of, I don't know, some sort of food and drug administration restriction."

He continued: "UK bell peppers cannot get into the US market at all.

"Wine shipments are heavily restricted. If you want to export wine made in England to the US you have to go through a US distributor.

"There is a tax on British micro-breweries in the US that doesn't apply to US micro-breweries in the UK."

Last month, President Trump said talks about a "very substantial" trade deal with the UK were already under way.

He said a bilateral post-Brexit deal could lead to a "three to four, five times" increase in current trade - but provided no details about how that would be achieved.

However, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, said a UK-US trade deal would not get through Congress if Brexit undermined the Good Friday Agreement.

Ms Pelosi said the UK's exit from the EU could not be allowed to endanger the 1998 Irish peace deal, which the US helped facilitate.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49462613

I’m not sure why the US would need (or want) to buy bell peppers or wine from England, of all places.
I have no opinion on Melton Mobray Pork Pies (though I am skeptical.)

 

[7437]

I’m not sure why the US would need (or want) to buy bell peppers or wine from England, of all places.
I have no opinion on Melton Mobray Pork Pies (though I am skeptical.)

Maybe that stuff is good? Or cheap? I dunno. I like bell peppers.

 

[JohnnySagebrush]

Maybe that stuff is good? Or cheap? I dunno. I like bell peppers.

As do I, though the US has the most fertile farmland in the world. I don’t think we need (or should) be shipping them across an ocean.
I reserve judgement on the pork pies.

 

[Arkain2K]

I’m not sure why the US would need (or want) to buy bell peppers or wine from England, of all places.
I have no opinion on Melton Mobray Pork Pies (though I am skeptical.)

To be honest, that got me stumped as well.

If Boris didn't bring it up, I wouldn't even know that England is aspiring to be a player in those markets, even though they are a net-importer of the stuff.

As far as I know, Spain and the Netherlands are the main cultivators of bell peppers for the E.U, and we are getting ours mainly from Mexico:


Bell pepper trade growing

The trade in bell peppers mostly occurs within the EU and within North America. Three countries dominate the export, Spain, Mexico and the Netherlands. These three countries represent nearly two-thirds of the total global trade. At a distance, the US, Turkey, Canada, Morocco, China and Israel are the other countries that count as exporters of bell peppers.

As is often the case, the import countries vary greatly. The continents remain the same, but two countries stand out, the US and Germany. The UK, France, Canada, Russia and the Netherlands are other import countries of meaning. Of the large exporters, only Dutch bell peppers are sent to destinations further away than the US and Japan. Spanish product is practically only traded within the EU, and the countries in North America practically exclusively trade bell peppers with each other. Only Israel looks for sales markets further away. The same is true for Morocco to a lesser extent.

In total, approximately 2.5 million tonnes of bell pepper was internationally traded in 2016. The global trade is steadily growing. Because many countries only publish figures of bell pepper and pepper combined, it can’t exactly be said how the world trade developed. The global trade in bell peppers, including peppers, grew from 1.5 million tonnes in 2000 to 2.0 million tonnes in 2005, 2.5 million tonnes in 2009, 3.0 million tonnes in 2013 to 3.35 million tonnes in 2016.

Scaling-up in the Netherlands

For more than ten years, the bell pepper area in the Netherlands fluctuated between 1,200 and 1,400 hectares. In 2016, it was 1,320 hectares. Production also remained fairly stable, and has been around 350,000 tonnes for about ten years now. In 2016, it was 345,000 tonnes. However, a large change occurred in the size of bell pepper cultivation companies. In 2000, there were about 700 companies growing bell pepper. By now, that number has dropped to 250. On average, a bell pepper company is more than five hectares. In 2010, the export of bell peppers grown in the Netherlands reached a peak with 320,000 tonnes. In 2013, this dropped back down to 270,000 tonnes. Last year saw some more export again, with 305,000 tonnes.

Germany is the most important sales market for Dutch bell peppers. Last year, the export to our neighbours to the east, however, dropped to less than 100,000 tonnes. In 2013 it was also that little. In 2010, 120,000 tonnes could be sold in Germany. Spain is the most important competitor on the German market. The import of Spanish bell peppers grew to more than 200,000 tonnes in Germany last year. Nowadays, Spain supplies bell peppers in large volumes year-round. On the German market, the import from the Netherlands is only larger than that of Spain from June to September. Spain and the Netherlands combined represent more than 80 per cent of the total German import.

The UK is the second buyer of Dutch bell peppers. After the peak of 70,000 tonnes in 2014, export dropped to 65,000 tonnes last year. On the British market, the Netherlands, with 86,000 tonnes including re-export product, is still the most important foreign supplier, but Spain is on the rise. In 2016, Spain could supply 80,000 tonnes compared to 50,000 tonnes in 2013, and not yet 30,000 tonnes in 2010. Both of these countries are good for almost 90 per cent of the British import. The Netherlands mostly supplies mixed-packs of bell pepper to the UK; in 2016 more than 31,000 tonnes. Many green bell peppers also cross the North Sea in proportion.

More to the US

Germany and the UK combined were good for more than half the export of Dutch bell peppers. The US was in third place. Last year, 25,000 tonnes more could be sold on that market compared to the years before. In 2014, export to the US even dropped to just 10,000 tonnes. In proportion, mostly orange bell peppers are sent to the US, and a significant number of yellow ones. The US is even the most important sales market for orange bell peppers. The share of Dutch bell peppers on the American market, however, is limited. This market is, besides being self-supporting, mostly supplied the world’s most important exporter, Mexico. Canada is also a much larger supplier than the Netherlands.

The export of Dutch bell peppers to Sweden, Poland and Norway has shown a good growth in recent years. In Sweden and Norway, the Netherlands is the most important supplier, ahead of Spain. On the Swedish market, the import from Spain is showing an increase as well. The import of Spanish bell peppers is stagnating on the Norwegian market. Spain is much larger than the Netherlands on the Polish market.

The export from the Netherlands to the Czech Republic, Denmark and France went less well last year, while Spain managed to supply more to these markets. Fewer Dutch bell peppers were also sent to Ireland, Switzerland, Finland and Italy last year.

Besides the US, Japan is another distant sales market for bell peppers. Compared to previous years, more was exported to Japan, but the 6,400 tonnes weren’t as much as the 7,700 tonnes sold there in 2012. In proportion, many yellow bell peppers are sent to Japan. The Netherlands is the second supplier on the Japanese market, far behind Korea.

China profits from Russian import boycott

The loss of the Russian market mid-2014 also affected the supply of bell peppers from the boycotted countries. In proportion, this didn’t affect bell peppers as much as other products. In 2012 and 2013, about 40,000 tonnes were imported from the boycotted countries. The Netherlands was by far the most important, with a total of about 20,000 tonnes, of which 5,000 tonnes were Dutch product. From Spain, it was even a bit less, although the Russian import figures also show a larger amount of Spanish import than Spanish export figures.

Israel has been the largest supplier of Russia by far, with an amount of 80,000 tonnes in 2013. Despite the boycott, import from Israel dropped to 60,000 tonnes in 2015, and last year even to 50,000 tonnes. The export of Israeli product to EU countries has dropped significantly. Not even 4,000 tonnes was sent to the Netherlands last year, compared to nearly 50,000 tonnes in 2012.

More export from Morocco and Turkey

Morocco is also on the rise as supplier of bell peppers. The export grew rapidly, to more than 80,000 tonnes. Spain is the most important buyer, followed by France. Turkey also supplies more and more bell peppers, especially to EU countries. The Moroccan export season is from December to May. The Turkish export season shows a similar picture.

https://www.freshplaza.com/article/2176440/bell-pepper-trade-growing-but-dutch-exports-stagnate/

 

[Gl0kta]

As do I, though the US has the most fertile farmland in the world. I don’t think we need (or should) be shipping them across an ocean.
I reserve judgement on the pork pies.

The FDA has some pet hates, there's a black market smuggling haggis in from Canada, black pudding is also banned.

 

[A_bomb47]

Last month, President Trump said talks about a "very substantial" trade deal with the UK were already under way.

He said a bilateral post-Brexit deal could lead to a "three to four, five times" increase in current trade - but provided no details about how that would be achieved.

Trump just being Trump.
Pulling that 3-5 times the amount of trade right out of his ass and I'm sure there are enough idiots that believe as usual.

 

[Arkain2K]

The FDA has some pet hates, there's a black market smuggling haggis in from Canada, black pudding is also banned.

To be specific, FDA safety rules ban livestock lungs in food made for human consumption (pet food is ok).

That affects quite a few traditional dishes from China as well, not just traditional Scottish haggis made with sheep lungs.

Haggis, Scotland's national dish, has been unavailable in the United States since 1971, when the USDA issued a succinct rule: "Livestock lungs shall not be saved for use as human food."

But sheep lungs are a key ingredient in haggis.

The reasoning behind the USDA's ban on lungs is generally couched in terms of food safety. Fluids—specifically, ones that might make you squeamish, including stomach fluids—sometimes make their way into the lungs of an animal during the slaughtering process.

An 1847 treatise recommends parboiling the lungs "to permit the phlegm and blood to disgorge from the[m]," one issue the USDA regulations sought to address.

The USDA ban has succeeded not only in halting the import of authentic haggis prepared in Scotland, but also on the sale of sheep lungs for use in haggis made in this country.

Notably, the US ban doesn't just target haggis. While often painted as a "haggis ban," the USDA rule also bans traditional lung-containing dishes from a variety of cultures, including those common to China, Nepal, and several European countries.

The rule does permit the use of lungs in pet food, where they're often found on ingredient lists.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/jpawpb/the-usda-doesnt-want-us-to-eat-lungs

 

[deise69]

Well while this is true and while I was also pointing out the transparent tactics of BJ, the fact remains: Ireland would have to ensure that all people crossing the border are registered and checked, irrespective of citizen status, and that all goods crossing the border can go through the customs process. There is no explicit necessity for a hard border, but I cannot imagine a different solution that brings the same result.

A border will have to go up on both sides, that's the reality of the situation. Ireland will put one up because it's in the EU's CU and SM. The UK will put one up because why would any country need to have a trade deal with them , when can just simply send anything they want across an open border with zero tariffs or checks.

Neither side is going to come out and say it because they know what will happen along that border and the blame game will begin. My guess for now, is Boris will call a general election in the coming weeks but will not ask the EU for another extension.