Contender Series 2021: Week 3

Daaaaaaamn, Jailton.

Glad I cancelled that parlay
 
woooooooooo

no idea why Nasrudin was such a big fave. I feel like ppl just looked at his name, background and "undefeated" record mostly against cans

like i said blown up meh MW
 
woooooooooo

no idea why Nasrudin was such a big fave. I feel like ppl just looked at his name, background and "undefeated" record mostly against cans

like i said blown up meh MW
its the phenomena known as the Khabib effect, anyone and their mother with a sambo background and a russian surname are hyper inflated . There is nothing more threatening to a russian fighter than a brazilian fighter. Good bjj off the back, solid hands , and big frame with sub offense.

Cant wait to see this guy fight again.
 
its the phenomena known as the Khabib effect, anyone and their mother with a sambo background and a russian surname are hyper inflated . There is nothing more threatening to a russian fighter than a brazilian fighter. Good bjj off the back, solid hands , and big frame with sub offense.

Cant wait to see this guy fight again.

to be fair alot of them are legit like Duraev but it was obvious Nasrudin wasnt that good specially @ LHW
 
its the phenomena known as the Khabib effect, anyone and their mother with a sambo background and a russian surname are hyper inflated . There is nothing more threatening to a russian fighter than a brazilian fighter. Good bjj off the back, solid hands , and big frame with sub offense.

Cant wait to see this guy fight again.

Agreed. Lots of recency bias on just "Dagestan" in general because of how dominant Khabib was and how much his personally coached fighters are winning. I think he's 100 pct win rate but I could be wrong. All I did was google this guy and realized Khabib wasn't his coach and bet against him. I also knew Junior comes to party so that didn't hurt.
 
to be fair alot of them are legit like Duraev but it was obvious Nasrudin wasnt that good specially @ LHW
true but the odds makers should have made that an even fight, Almeida had solid good wins and a long win streak, the size advantage too, i think they lost a lot of money tonight making him the dog.
 
I am surprised the girl got a contract. She seemed super green to me.

The Polish guy only got a contract because he is besties with the champion. He definitely should not be in the UFC yet.
 
I am surprised the girl got a contract. She seemed super green to me.

The Polish guy only got a contract because he is besties with the champion. He definitely should not be in the UFC yet.

Hes not good if he fought on KSW he wouldnt have even been in this position with all the Ls hed take
 
I am surprised the girl got a contract. She seemed super green to me.

The Polish guy only got a contract because he is besties with the champion. He definitely should not be in the UFC yet.

Agreed on Jasudavicius, extremely hittable, and her strikes just don't have the pop to keep people off of her. Depending on who she fights in her UFC debut, could be a good opportunity to bet against her.
 
its the phenomena known as the Khabib effect, anyone and their mother with a sambo background and a russian surname are hyper inflated . There is nothing more threatening to a russian fighter than a brazilian fighter. Good bjj off the back, solid hands , and big frame with sub offense.

Cant wait to see this guy fight again.

Nasrudin was the #1 ranked LHW unsigned to a major promotion, despite the fact he is built like a MW. Most people saw that and juiced up the line on him. Tape on Almeida who had 15 fights is also hard to find, which means his manager was doing their job.

Without those cage grabs Nasrudin probably would have been subbed in the first round.

It also is pretty clear the commentary team on DWCS watches 1 fight maybe 2. when Bisping scoffed at Almeida and Sanko compared Nasrudin to Khabib you could instantly tell they were full of shit and had not seen more than one fight of Almeida.
 
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Agreed on Jasudavicius, extremely hittable, and her strikes just don't have the pop to keep people off of her. Depending on who she fights in her UFC debut, could be a good opportunity to bet against her.

There also were grounds for a Jasudavicius stoppage in the first round, you appear to be conflating Jasudavicius fatigue from trying to finish off her opponent who had been beaten down to lacking the power to do so.
 
Jasudavicius is pretty bad but so is the rest of the wmma roster, perfect addition!
 
Safest Play:
Mo Miller(-330):
When evaluating him you must remove any thought of how he would fair at BW in the UFC. He is a wrestler that will wrestle his opponent until they allow him to complete the takedown. Mo often is matched with much smaller men, as is the case with his opponent Brandon Lewis, despite being a 5'9 BW with a 72 inch reach and big hands. Respectfully, I believe all the advantages are with Mo, and it is semi-puzzling how Lewis found his way into the DWCS pool. Lewis, should not be fighting at BW, is totally outmatched and it is hard to see this going over 1.5 rounds.

Relatively Safe Play:
Lukasz Brzeski(-250):
Lukasz is a gritty striker with solid fundamentals who is going to have a significant advantage as long as this fight stays standing. Lukasz has power and in fairness to him a few of the referees overseeing some of his recent bouts have made him work harder than a ref on DWCS will for the TKO. His opponent Dylan Potter is an interesting fighter that has bounced around weight-classes and despite his somewhat muddy record of 10-5 he is 5-1 as a HW. Potter does not hold any notable wins but he did in my view get robbed of a decision at LHW against Myron Dennis in LFA. Potter has a gas tank to potentially go the distance if Brzeski does not put him out, but he doesn't have many realistic paths to victory at HW as he is quite green and should be fighting at LHW not HW. Lukasz has not exactly been fighting elite competition but respectfully this is a very hard fight to envision Potter winning at the moment. I can envision Potter getting a shot in the UFC as a late notice LHW replacement if he wins a few on the regional circuit but not HW.

Strong Lean:
Jasmine Jasudavicius(-108): Jasmine is an agressive striker that spends a lot of time trying to get her opponents in a Muay Thai Plum seemingly out of habit as she does not appear to have much of a background in it. Jasmines striking is serviceable though she does most of her damage when she can clinch and knee her opponents. She is very capable of taking her opponents down though she unfortunately does occasionally choose to stand with them when her clearest path to victory is to take them down and inflict ground and pound. While she made several mistakes, most noticeably on the ground, in her lone loss to Elise Reed (UFC FW/SW) I personally believe she won the fight and should still be undefeated. Furthermore, she is tall (5"7), strong, and athletic which should be useful when she takes on her opponent Julia Polastri who is a 5"2 strawweight that has fought at attomweight but never flyweight where this bout is being contested. Julia has a good record against experienced opponents, is tough, and appears to have a very good gas tank. I do believe Julia is the better fighter, but Jasmine is technically proficient, aggressive, and athletic enough to stop her right in her tracks. Jasmine also has looked improved fight over fight and a TKO via G&P is what I expect to see from her but I still would lean on the safe side and just assume it goes the distance.

Slight Lean:
Ange Loosa(+130):
is a heavy handed striker with a questionable gas tank. Ange hurts his opponents quickly and has shown an ability to finish aggressive fighters that come out recklessly so this fight will likely somewhat be dependent on the strategy his opponent Della chooses. His opponent Della has accumulated a solid nine fight win streak versus some game competition but he definitely has dealt not fought a fighter with Anges power, fight iq, and experience. He seems a little too willing to trade occasionally which is why I side with Ange and believe he will get it done inside the distance. If this bout goes to decision Ange has cardio for two rounds and Della has not been out of the second round so what happens in that third round and who ultimately would win a decision while Ange would be the safe play it is not out of the question Della could win a decision. It goes without saying Della has power and any outcome is concievable.

Tossup:
Jailton Almeida(+195): I believe Jailton has a very real shot of winning. I am aware of how touted a prospect Nasrudin is but the physical advantages Jailton has in conjunction with his grappling heavy approach make this far more of a tossup. Jailton has an 8" inch reach advantage and is strong, physical, and agressive. If Nasrudin has a fifteen minute kickboxing match with Jailton of course I think he wins the majority of the time, but Jailton will be hunting the submission, has power of his own, and is the bigger and stronger man. Nasrudin is a good fighter but these two as you will see are separated by at least a weight class. Jailton is also the only fighter to submit UFC vet Ildemar Alcantara in his 40+ professional fights; worth keeping in mind.

I did not tape Duraev/Bittencourt as I was under the impression it would be on 9/21 when I began watching these fighters.

4/5 pretty god damn accurate. And the one I did not get correct was an underdog who I listed as my second least confident pick.

Posters like @Hellowhosthat were advocating for folks to light their money on fire by betting on Julia a 22 year old atomweight going up against a 5"7 very athletic flyweight who unsurprisingly as I said would happen won the fight by imposing her will on her and overpowering her despite being the worse fighter. Still has multiple likes on his posts

Posters like @Zakk Lanphear while well intentioned posted his breakdown over a day after mine. He posted all of the same picks as I did, with the exception of one (Potter), who he was advocating for folks to light their money on fire by betting on. His breakdown, which included no correct picks that mine did not have, though it did include wrong ones has tons of likes. Tells you a lot about what folks in here are looking for in reality; for others to confirm their preconceived biases on certain fights not actually gain insight.

Posters like @BigSteve writing diatribes questioning my breakdown on not picking Della, on a coin-flip fight which despite being correct on he ended up having a terrible read on, as it was Della who gassed. Unsurprisingly he lit his money on fire betting on Potter, who had no path too victory, since he clearly is not watching these regional fights.

Not a single like on the first poster (my post) who took the time to watch all the fights instead of watching one fight as others do and wikicap from there, went 4/5, and actually correctly broke down how most of the fights were going to go.

Now I understand why these betting threads which at one time were booming are dead. Folks don't want to waste their time anymore when they get nothing but resentment if their posts dont confirm the incorrect biases of the folks in these threads.

I don't like posts that put down regional fighters who read/speak english as there is a chance they will see what people write about them. But Dylan Potter had absolutely no chance of winning and anyone who advocated for or put their money on him was wiki-capping and did not watch the fights of him or Brzeski. The guy had absolutely no paths to victory, none, and considering how many in here were posting their bets on him its pretty obvious most of the people posting in here arent actually watching fights and wikicapping.

Wont make the mistake again of wasting my time yelling into the void in these threads anymore, have fun wikicapping.
 
4/5 pretty god damn accurate. And the one I did not get correct was an underdog who I listed as my second least confident pick.

Posters like @Hellowhosthat were advocating for folks to light their money on fire by betting on Julia a 22 year old atomweight going up against a 5"7 very athletic flyweight who unsurprisingly as I said would happen won the fight by imposing her will on her and overpowering her despite being the worse fighter. Still has multiple likes on his posts

Posters like @Zakk Lanphear while well intentioned post his breakdown over a day after mine. He posted all of the same picks as I did, with the exception of one (Potter), who he was advocating for folks to light their money on fire by betting on.

Posters like @BigSteve writing diatribes questioning my breakdown on not picking Della, on a coin-flip fight which despite being correct on he ended up having a terrible read on, as it was Della who gassed. Unsurprisingly he lit his money on fire betting on Potter, who had no path too victory, since he clearly is not watching these regional fights.

Not a single like on the first poster (my post) who took the time to watch all the fights instead of watching one fight as others do and wikicap from there, went 4/5, and actually correctly broke down how most of the fights were going to go.

Now I understand why these betting threads which at one time were booming are dead. Folks don't want to waste their time anymore when they get nothing but resentment if their posts dont confirm the incorrect biases of the folks in these threads.

I don't like posts that put down regional fighters who read/speak english as there is a chance they will see what people write about them. But Dylan Potter had absolutely no chance of winning and anyone who advocated for or put their money on him was wiki-capping and did not watch the fights of him or Brzeski. The guy had absolutely no paths to victory, none, and considering how many in here were posting their bets on him its pretty obvious most of the people posting in here arent actually watching fights and wikicapping.

Wont make the mistake again of wasting my time yelling into the void in these threads anymore, have fun the wikicapping.

lol calm down dude, most of my likes are from making jokes in the heavies.

Polastri Vs Jasmine was close anyway, I said she'd come on strong later in the fight and get in her face and she did that but Jasmine had a much better first round than I expected.
 
4/5 pretty god damn accurate. And the one I did not get correct was an underdog who I listed as my second least confident pick.

Posters like @Hellowhosthat were advocating for folks to light their money on fire by betting on Julia a 22 year old atomweight going up against a 5"7 very athletic flyweight who unsurprisingly as I said would happen won the fight by imposing her will on her and overpowering her despite being the worse fighter. Still has multiple likes on his posts

Posters like @Zakk Lanphear while well intentioned posted his breakdown over a day after mine. He posted all of the same picks as I did, with the exception of one (Potter), who he was advocating for folks to light their money on fire by betting on. His breakdown, which included no correct picks that mine did not have, though it did include wrong ones has tons of likes. Tells you a lot about what folks in here are looking for in reality; for others to confirm their preconceived biases on certain fights not actually gain insight.

Posters like @BigSteve writing diatribes questioning my breakdown on not picking Della, on a coin-flip fight which despite being correct on he ended up having a terrible read on, as it was Della who gassed. Unsurprisingly he lit his money on fire betting on Potter, who had no path too victory, since he clearly is not watching these regional fights.

Not a single like on the first poster (my post) who took the time to watch all the fights instead of watching one fight as others do and wikicap from there, went 4/5, and actually correctly broke down how most of the fights were going to go.

Now I understand why these betting threads which at one time were booming are dead. Folks don't want to waste their time anymore when they get nothing but resentment if their posts dont confirm the incorrect biases of the folks in these threads.

I don't like posts that put down regional fighters who read/speak english as there is a chance they will see what people write about them. But Dylan Potter had absolutely no chance of winning and anyone who advocated for or put their money on him was wiki-capping and did not watch the fights of him or Brzeski. The guy had absolutely no paths to victory, none, and considering how many in here were posting their bets on him its pretty obvious most of the people posting in here arent actually watching fights and wikicapping.

Wont make the mistake again of wasting my time yelling into the void in these threads anymore, have fun wikicapping.


Also here's my overall predictions for the card.

78722-2472514.png


Hardly bad imo.
 
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