Is the US prepared for this?
As the worlds biggest market the handling of this and choices made both Pre and Post Coronavirus arrival to the US, by its officials will be key to analyse and watch to understand the impact the virus will have on the citizenry, the world Markets and beyond.
Confidence in the leadership will lead to citizens following instructions, taking the necessary steps and the Market impact being minimized. COnfidence lost will result in the opposite.
Pre Epidemic Preparedness:
There was a clear belief stated by the Trump Admin as they cut preparedness that such capacity, both human and supplies, could be rebuilt quickly and on demand as needed.
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Trump Has Sabotaged America’s Coronavirus Response
As it improvises its way through a public health crisis, the United States has never been less prepared for a pandemic....In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure.
Post Epidemic Handling:
Testing and Early Isolation are keys to minimizing. That is built around having a robust testing infrastructure to identify and then isolate the infected.
Where does the US stand?
- UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate). [source]
- Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 470 positive, awaiting results: unknown (at least 5.0% positivity rate). [source]
- France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive, 179 awaiting results (at least 2.2% positivity rate). [source]
- Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive, awaiting results: unknown (at least 0.6% positivity rate). [source]
- South Korea: 66,652 tests with 1766 positives 25,568 awaiting results (4.3% positivity rate). [source]
- United States: 445 concluded tests, of which 14 positive (3.1% positivity rate). [source]
Whose in Charge:
The History of these types of Medical Emergencies is that the top Gov't officials, The Doctors and Scientist in Charge are given unfettered access to the media and citizenry to be able to address questions, allay fears, and give precise and actionable information. Citizens take comfort in that knowing politics is not driving messaging and the information they are being given is accurate.
Trump has changed that by putting Mike Pence (His VP) as point person and telling all gov't officials all information must funnel through him.
Pence's only history in dealing with such issues should be of great concern to all. He is of the 'pray the "XXX" away" camp, instead of looking to science or medicine for guidance.
Mike Pence, who enabled an HIV outbreak in Indiana, will lead US coronavirus response
Pence has a track record of ignoring public health evidence
Mike Pence claimed “smoking doesn’t kill” as late as 2000
So what is the Confidence level of the Market and Citizens?
We all know that a crisis like this or the 2008 Financial Crisis can shake markets. But confidence that there is a steady hand directing things can quickly stabilize things and allow for a much quicker return to normal. We saw that very quickly with the Obama Admin handling of the 2008 Financial Crisis which lead to the current growth and prosperity America has been enjoying for the last 12 years. Now the Trump Admin is thrown into a similar challenging environment and we will see how they handle it. If they quell fears and inspire confidence, and thus the markets stabilize and bounce back quicker or if things worsen and continue to decline due to a lack of confidence.
The Stock Market Is In Free Fall On Coronavirus Fears. How Much Worse Will It Get?
The U.S. stock market has officially plunged into correction territory—at the fastest rate ever recorded, suffering its worst losses since the 2008 financial crisis this week amid ongoing panic over the spreading coronavirus and its impact on the global economy.
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These are all things that need to be watched to gauge the extent of damage the Virus will do to the US citizenry and the Markets. How much worse or better things get will be directly tied to the above.
I'll keep updating this as things progress.
