Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, May 13, 2018.
Holland is going to murder Santiago y'all are giving your money away
My #'s say Holland is 92% to win and 78% to finish. And that doesn't even account for 10.5" reach advantage, younger, and more athletic.
Not sure how Santiago has a chance. It seems like his reason for existing is to make Holland look good so he can make the UFC.
Damn dawg you cap Holland -1100? You must have unloaded when he dropped to -350 lol.
To be clear that's not where I cap him, that's what my stat model says. I often disagree with my stat model after subjective assement, but in this case I believe it is accurate.
I don't have 5dimes so I don't bet openers. Will probably bet him small at -650 or whatever because I just don't see him losing to such an inferior talent.
I guess there is some chance that he gets caught, but Holland hasn't been KO'd and he has fought against real UFC talents like Neal + Millender. Seeing that Santiago needs to get inside 11" reach disadvantage to land the power blow...just seems incredibly unlikely.
Confidence increase Santiago:
Ah I see. I'm not betting this event just spectating. Was just curious why you thought that. I bid you adieu.
I made some risky bets lately so maybe I don't have room to talk since I lucked into those split decision wins, but -650 for a DWTNCS fighter seems really steep with the way fighters tend to go for it to impress Dana on these cards.
So you think Holland may make a dumb mistake?
It's possible. Santiago has power and could sleep him. But the talent disparity is just sooooooooo so so so extreme. Holland could be a future UFC contender and I don't think Santiago is fave vs anybody on the roster now that CM Punk + Jackson are dunzo.
Am I the only one who thinks Hardy looks way more natural at fighting + fluid at throwing strikes than Lane?
So I guess we aren't even getting overs for this one . I looked back on BFO and for all the other DWTNCS's were props.
hardy was an all-pro in the NFL and a damn good pass rusher, lane on the other hand played under 15 games I believe.
what do good pass rushers have in common? elite speed, endurance, and most of them train hand combat to know exactly where to strike an opposing lineman. Hardy ran also ran 7.13 in the 3 cone drill which is a good indicator of body control & overall athleticism
On paper, Hardy is the better athlete. Not sure if he is the better MMA fighter, though. Bovada doesn't have a line for this so i'm not betting personally.
There's still time for them to release over/unders this afternoon. Although I would not be surprised if they didn't since those unders probably cost them a bundle last season.
additionally, Hardy inked a massive deal w/ the Cowboys during his time in the NFL + was franchise tagged by the panthers during his stint there.
Santiago has won six out of his last seven fights by KO or TKO and in the one he lost he got knocked out himself. I'm saying that at least Santiago will go for the KO, even if it ends badly for him. Have to take an opponent like that seriously and not underestimate him.
I feel you. I just don't see how he gets inside the massive reach advantage to land a power shot against a guy who has never been KO'd. I also don't see how he can take a punch from Holland, as his chin looked really bad in the Curtis KO.
Almost all of Santiago's wins have been against guys 6 foot +. Holland is definitely rangy, but it's not like Santiago isn't used to fighting guys taller than him with a longer reach.
I feel like betting every underdog tonight will make you profitable. Haven't made any plays yet but some of these lines are hilarious.
Nobody he has beat even sniffs Holland's talent level
Time for a new model.
Imagine even wasting one second of your time on a model for MMA betting
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