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Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series- Season 2

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, May 13, 2018.

  1. Omni1 Purple Belt

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    I can see perhaps some quant who's been watching MMA for years & knows the game inside and out so I'm not knocking all models but his model seems to be quite flawed.
     
  2. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    Often aligns with gambling markets and is a useful reference. I am going to bet based on my subjective opinion, but it is a decent sanity test to compare resumes + finishing ability.

    In this case, it tells me that Santiago's recent wins mean little bc they are against ass competition and his chin is awful and will probably get melted by Holland's fist. It's helpful information that saves me the energy of too much scouting.
     
  3. Omni1 Purple Belt

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    Interesting to not see any comments on the Jackson vs Disclulio match. I give the edge to Jackson. He has better striking & his wrestling is superior as well. The kid is very impressive for only fighting 4 years.
     
  4. Omni1 Purple Belt

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    When betting your hard earned money there is no such thing as too much scouting & video watching.
     
  5. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    I do plenty of scouting and video watching. But it is mostly subjective logic that wins, and subjective logic says the short stumpy old dude who only KO's bums is probably not going to KO the much longer, more powerful, athletic young guy before he gets melted himself.
     
  6. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    So Holland's a lock because he's taller. That's some next level capping right there.
     
  7. Omni1 Purple Belt

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    My $ is on Holland but -900 is ridiculous. Santiago is not hungry. He's starving! He packed his stuff & has been living at Team Jackson/Wink's for the past 2 years. Absolutely training his ass off. I have a feeling if he does not win he may just pack it in. If Santiago wins it will be via 1st round KO.
     
  8. Tony J Blue Belt

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    These lines are getting silly. However, I feel Chris Curtis' opponent is less dangerous than Holland's.
     
  9. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    Cmon son Holland is better in every way conceivable. Don't try to act like my logic isn't elite when the market is moving my way. Holland -915 now.
     
  10. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    He probably is. I don't like how slow paced and not dominant Curtis is stylistically, but it is really hard to see him losing here.
     
  11. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    Okay enjoy sweating your -900 play. It's dog or pass for most of us at those prices.
     
  12. stretcharmstrong Purple Belt

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    0.5u Santiago @7.20
    0.5u Boatwright @5.00
     
  13. Captain Crunch28 Green Belt

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    Are you being serious because I was thinking the exact opposite
     
  14. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    It's really hard to say in short clips of bum fights but his hands look much more coordinated + accurate to me
     
  15. Kowboy Karl Black Belt

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    5dimes cancelled my hardy bet

    Is fight off? Don’t see any news
     
  16. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Check the opponent. 5D had the old line up a long time and barely got the new line out recently.
     
  17. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    Agreed, definitely more of a natural. I was quite impressed with his last KO, backing up, plants and throws with no wind up.
     
  18. turbozed Red Belt

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    Why would you say that? Lally's got a 8 sec and a 19 second KO. Also has been fighting at MW. Curtis should box Lally's face off but Curtis will give him opportunities since Curtis thinks a high guard shell with 4 oz gloves is good MMA defense.
     
  19. Ukram Silver Belt

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  20. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Good luck with your bets tonight gents.
     

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