DWTNCS 5: Baghdasaryan V Buzukia

[BigSteve]

Added 38 on Lawrence to win 100.

hmm interesting lines.

Lutz 455 to win 200
Flick 147 to win 200
Bagdasaryan 87 to win 100

Looking at Brudage when he becomes a dog and Lawrence if Jose gets steamed.

And Smith hedge 100

+500 thank you very much DWCS, 5 weeks in a row the profit increases lol.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Lost 2 units on this card, would have been up +4 units if not for herb dean in Knight fight. Massive swing. Could have been worse though.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Feeling very good about this bet, no matter who wins. Maybe should have went a little heavier than 1u too, regardless of the uncertainties present in the fight.

At worst, a situation like that is 50/50 for the Armenian.

Regardless, I'm very happy I didn't try to pre-bet this, heh.

Real nice livebet Polar. Good job. Was odd how he waited so long to go for the takedowns, I know Dennis was tired but he used them later in the fight, so he could had went for TDs earlier, as he was so much better. Nice comeback in r3 from Bagda though, +140 was good value all things considered. Cash that.

Personally had 0.5u on Bagda prefight 2.02.

 

[2020Tracked]

One bet as usual

 

[Naught2Sixty]

+1.75u on a card I hardly watched any tape for. I'll take it. The trick to these DWTNCS cards is to really pick your spots.

How'd you'd get the yellow card bro

 

[BigSteve]

How'd you'd get the yellow card bro

too much winning, limited by Sherdog

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Real nice livebet Polar. Good job. Was odd how he waited so long to go for the takedowns, I know Dennis was tired but he used them later in the fight, so he could had went for TDs earlier, as he was so much better. Nice comeback in r3 from Bagda though, +140 was good value all things considered. Cash that.

Personally had 0.5u on Bagda prefight 2.02.

The main problem was that even when Dennis was getting takedowns, Bagda was getting up almost instantly. Even when tired in round 2. That, coupled with Dennis clearly slowing down at the end of round 1 and continuing into round 2 meant he wasn't doing nearly as well as the narrative Cormier was spinning.

I was way off thinking buzukja was the bigger man. Got burned betting the hometown guy. Ill try get some rounds in w him in the boxing gym lol but dude is 22 and worked his ass off. Wen his man strength comes in hell b a legit fighter
Nothin but respect. He fought his ass off

He certainly has potential, but he is about 2-3 years off at this point.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

too much winning, limited by Sherdog

Haha good one. Srsly tho.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

How'd you'd get the yellow card bro

Someone reported my post in this topic where I mentioned my perspective as a father about what Ronnie Lawrence's mother had done.

This was described as "fighter bashing" by the mod who messaged me. Silly me, thinking "fighters" meant "fighters" and not "fighter's family members".

Anywho, I've appealed this (my first infraction in 2+ years on this forum), but we'll see if anything happens.

 

[Oblivian]

As of right now, I think Flick probably had the most value of any bet of 2020. If you have those two fight 20 times, how many times do you see Flick losing? After watching that one play out, Flick was better everywhere and I don't really see much of a path to victory for Smith.

 

[chemmy]

As of right now, I think Flick probably had the most value of any bet of 2020. If you have those two fight 20 times, how many times do you see Flick losing? After watching that one play out, Flick was better everywhere and I don't really see much of a path to victory for Smith.

Agreed. Glad I pounded that + money line. Those 7 sub losses as an amateur were a huge red flag, especially combined with him having very little striking. It was bound to be a grappling match, and one where he’d be forced to constantly defend.

 

[Oblivian]

Agreed. Glad I pounded that + money line. Those 7 sub losses as an amateur were a huge red flag, especially combined with him having very little striking. It was bound to be a grappling match, and one where he’d be forced to constantly defend.

I didn't even play it very large, but I was on Flick. I just didn't know enough about Smith. I figured he'd show a bit more athleticism. I mean he had great sub defense and was tough as hell, but he was honestly fairly outclassed in every area and then you have Flick's superior experience + cardio. I just have a hard time seeing Smith ever getting any offense going. I'd legit probably cap Flick around -600 or higher if they fought again (not accounting for potential improvement in time off by Smith).

 

[chemmy]

The sub defense by Smith was very impressive to me. It’s clear he has worked hard on it. Pre-fight I honestly expected Flick to find a 1st round sub. He came close, but Smith did really well to survive through those.

I’m hoping Smith gets a decent matchup in November because I think he’s bound to be undervalued after this loss. I don’t think he’s half as bad as he was made to look last night. More of a matchup specific thing. Maybe he’ll be an incorrectly lined dog next time out.

 

[ill800]

As of right now, I think Flick probably had the most value of any bet of 2020. If you have those two fight 20 times, how many times do you see Flick losing? After watching that one play out, Flick was better everywhere and I don't really see much of a path to victory for Smith.

I didn’t think flick was going to be able to take him down so easily, and in fights where flick can’t get takedowns he doesn’t fair very well. Figured smith would be able to explode up if he did get taken down.

Basically talked myself out of my bet at +135. Been in a rough patch lately so I’m second guessing my initial reads

 

[Oblivian]

I didn’t think flick was going to be able to take him down so easily, and in fights where flick can’t get takedowns he doesn’t fair very well. Figured smith would be able to explode up if he did get taken down.

Basically talked myself out of my bet at +135. Been in a rough patch lately so I’m second guessing my initial reads

I didn't realize how poor Smith would look standing. I knew he wasn't a good striker, but I didn't realize Flick would look that much more comfortable. He'd get him biting on every fake as well, even with takedowns. I don't think you can have a better matchup for Flick honestly. It will be interesting seeing where lines go on Flick and for Smith in their next fights. I do agree - Flick can have trouble with a lot of guys who can implement sprawl and brawl. Smith also is probably a threat to guys who are mediocre on the ground.

 

[ill800]

I didn't realize how poor Smith would look standing. I knew he wasn't a good striker, but I didn't realize Flick would look that much more comfortable. He'd get him biting on every fake as well, even with takedowns. I don't think you can have a better matchup for Flick honestly. It will be interesting seeing where lines go on Flick and for Smith in their next fights. I do agree - Flick can have trouble with a lot of guys who can implement sprawl and brawl. Smith also is probably a threat to guys who are mediocre on the ground.

My initial read was flick is on a different level of grappling. He’s going to catch smith in an arm triangle.

I watched flick get mounted and dominated in an old fight against a lesser wrestler. But I think something was wrong with flick. He was almost puking between rounds and you could just tell he didn’t have much in the tank

smith had some great grappling exchanges in his last few fights. Good explosions and scrambles. I thought he might be able to replicate that to some extent with flick, and didn’t think the +135 was worth the risk. I also thought his standup would improve with the gyms he’s been at (factory x and elevation) and he’s be able to get the better of flick. Boy was I wrong

flicks sub transitions completely overwhelmed smith, and there may have been a bit of adrenaline cardio dump from the first grappling exchange.

I also didn’t want to overrate flicks grappling, because he isn’t nearly as effective from bottom and the guy he beat to win the lfa title was another shogun fights guy who hadn’t faced anyone nearly as good as flick in jiu jitsu.

I’m second guessing myself way too much. I did the same thing last week with Flores and alves and alves itd line was +240. I should’ve been all over that and his ml when it was at plus odds.

I watched smith first and then flicks tape. I even went back to 2012 and watched his no gi match with Bedford. Flick was competing in tourneys before smith was even an amateur

The ptv was obvious and the best play on the card. It was a terrible matchup for smith.

I was super pissed last night at my performance. I didn’t go back far enough in tape for Lawrence. I liked him too but liked the experience and stand up of Johnson better. Didn’t think Lawrence was capable of a pace like that and a wrestling heavy gameplan

 

[Sticko]

Herb really fucked over Brundage there. What a twat. Should have just let him ride there for a free RD1. That also sets a precedence that you can hold on for dear life there and the guy on your back will be punished for it. I expect people try this in the future now. Fuck off, Herb.

I don't like forced stand-ups and am glad we didn't have one, but Herb did the right thing given the rules.

You have to be working or trying to improve position. Back mount is a great position in theory but if the other guy traps both your hands under his body it's a stalemate. We see it happen more often with closed guard, where the bottom guy completely ties up the top guy's hands and prevents any offense. Knight said he'd been caught in back mount in a previous fight and he knew exactly how to defend it.

 

[Oblivian]

Brundage was done. Even if he could have road out Rd 1, he was so gassed. He must have had a massive adrenaline dump. He was breathing so heavy in back control which is probably one of the reasons he was able to be held. As Knight mentioned, he was breathing so heavy.