General MMA discussion and future lines - April 2016

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Oblivian said:
5th was clearly Burrell and the other four rounds were not that clear at all.
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Agree to disagree I guess. Not that I think it was just pure one-sided beatdowns in rds 2-3-4 but I think you can have a guy pretty clearly winning rounds without all out dominating. The harder, cleaner strikes were clearly from Curtis in those 3 rounds.
 
mkess101 said:
Agree to disagree I guess. Not that I think it was just pure one-sided beatdowns in rds 2-3-4 but I think you can have a guy pretty clearly winning rounds without all out dominating. The harder, cleaner strikes were clearly from Curtis in those 3 rounds.
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Honestly, I'm not shocked by a decision near as much as others. I think too many people look at it trying to just core a round definitively as 10-9. Let me give you an example - just throwing random #'s here, but it's illustrating my point. Let's say I see a fight as follows:
Round 1 and 5 to Fighter A, and rounds 2-4 to fighter B. I don't look at it as simple as that. I may see it as something like
Round 1: 70% chance Fighter A
Round 2: 60% chance Fighter B
Round 3: 65% chance Fighter B
Round 4: 60% chance Fighter B
Round 5: 80% chance fighter A

Fighter A has a pretty damn good chance of winning that fight. Again, those aren't my %s for this fight as I wasn't really grading that seriously, but I think Rd 5 was likely Burrell on all 3 scorecards. My guess is that you are going to have a complete mixture on rounds 1-4. Those rounds were not that clear at all.
 
Oblivian said:
Honestly, I'm not shocked by a decision near as much as others. I think too many people look at it trying to just core a round definitively as 10-9. Let me give you an example - just throwing random #'s here, but it's illustrating my point. Let's say I see a fight as follows:
Round 1 and 5 to Fighter A, and rounds 2-4 to fighter B. I don't look at it as simple as that. I may see it as something like
Round 1: 70% chance Fighter A
Round 2: 60% chance Fighter B
Round 3: 65% chance Fighter B
Round 4: 60% chance Fighter B
Round 5: 80% chance fighter A

Fighter A has a pretty damn good chance of winning that fight. Again, those aren't my %s for this fight as I wasn't really grading that seriously, but I think Rd 5 was likely Burrell on all 3 scorecards. My guess is that you are going to have a complete mixture on rounds 1-4. Those rounds were not that clear at all.
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I don't know, I just disagree. But there's subjectivity involved sure. It just didn't seem like there was any question who was landing the better strikes in those middle rounds to me. The grappling was meh both ways in those rounds, so you give them to the guy who clearly got the better of the striking exchanges. Rd 1 could have been Curtis too honestly but it was close enough that I don't think anyone should complain either way. 2-3-4 pretty clearly Curtis. Rd 5 clearly Burrell.

This just wasn't that difficult a fight to score after rd 1 imo.
 
weee, araujo smash. lol @ the exchange that set up the back-take. cochrane, oh cochrane.

nice +2u on that one, need it after the rough tennis week (went 2-0 today tho, whaaat! how's that possible!)

sorry a lot of you guys lost on curtis, i'll watch that one now, had no bets on it, was gonna bet burrell small +150 but sounds like it would've been a lucky win by many accounts?

ufc just 8 days away now.. how i've missed it...
 
general props up for 5d bettable fights

i.e. tumenov-nelson etc

cyborg itd is -812, heh

rory mac dec +289?

anderson silva dec +201?

corey anderson dec -101 hehe? (i'm not hitting this one, myself, but i imagine some people will like it)
 
sportsbook.com...

khabilov -250
wade +200 on

cowboy -135
cote +105

it's sportsbook, tho...
 
EzFlyer said:
general props up for 5d bettable fights

i.e. tumenov-nelson etc

cyborg itd is -812, heh

rory mac dec +289?

anderson silva dec +201?

corey anderson dec -101 hehe? (i'm not hitting this one, myself, but i imagine some people will like it)
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hall itd +275 sounds pretty good.. bisping's pillow fist had him hurt multiply times.. can only imagine what will happend is hall lands something big... not hitting it myself though since i already have a big bet on hall ml +275 (betsafe :eek:)

wish i got that barboza dec +330 crazy line even though i think Pettis might get he KO
 
Thanks for BB tip guys especially Ez. Won back what i lost last week on Eubank fight and then some.
 
Hit:

Barbosa dec +265. Think he has a decent shot of outworking Pettis standing if Pettis looks too much for that one killshot (which he has been doing lately).

Hall dec +321. Both guys look to counter. Could be a staring contest much of the time.

Overeem KO -125. Think this hits 2/3 of the time right now. I can't believe I trust Overeem's chin and fight IQ so much in this spot but I do.
 
Just caught up with all the Curtis talk. Actually agree with @Oblivian. I was having a tough time scoring many of those rounds. Curtis was landing harder, cleaner shots but it was infrequent, Burrell was throwing twice the volume and answering for almost everything he got hit with. Plus those dudes just kept going back and forth against the cage in the clinch. I wasn't mad about the loss.

mkess101 said:
Hit:

Barbosa dec +265. Think he has a decent shot of outworking Pettis standing if Pettis looks too much for that one killshot (which he has been doing lately).

Hall dec +321. Both guys look to counter. Could be a staring contest much of the time.

Overeem KO -125. Think this hits 2/3 of the time right now. I can't believe I trust Overeem's chin and fight IQ so much in this spot but I do.
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Got Barboza dec @ +300, very happy about that. With you on Reem KO as well, but played Anderson by dec. In the biggest UFC event in Brazil's history, and in a 3 rounder, I just can't see Anderson cruising along in a close fight that judges could give to Hall. Maybe I can see it, I just don't want to believe he'll pull that shit.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Just caught up with all the Curtis talk. Actually agree with @Oblivian. I was having a tough time scoring many of those rounds. Curtis was landing harder, cleaner shots but it was infrequent, Burrell was throwing twice the volume and answering for almost everything he got hit with. Plus those dudes just kept going back and forth against the cage in the clinch. I wasn't mad about the loss.


Got Barboza dec @ +300, very happy about that. With you on Reem KO as well, but played Anderson by dec. In the biggest UFC event in Brazil's history, and in a 3 rounder, I just can't see Anderson cruising along in a close fight that judges could give to Hall. Maybe I can see it, I just don't want to believe he'll pull that shit.
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Curtis won dammit LOL! I do think a bit of a robbery. Not like what Militech said but still...


I'd favor Silva to win a dec if it went to the cards maybe 55-45 but Hall +321 vs Silva +201 so took Hall.
 
mkess101 said:
Curtis won dammit LOL! I do think a bit of a robbery. Not like what Militech said but still...


I'd favor Silva to win a dec if it went to the cards maybe 55-45 but Hall +321 vs Silva +201 so took Hall.
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Yeah I can see both sides of the argument, didn't wanna rehash it but had to put in my 2 cents :D
 
New lines on betsafe:

Northcutt/Marin 1.40 / 2.95

Gomi/Miller 2.45 / 1.55

Sanchez/Lauzon 1.90 / 1.90

Hendricks/Gastelum 1.45 / 2.75

Aldo/Edgar 1.75 / 2.08

Conor/Nate 1.95 / 1.85

Not loving anything. Might hit Sanchez.
 
EzFlyer said:
sportsbook.com...

khabilov -250
wade +200 on

cowboy -135
cote +105

it's sportsbook, tho...
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I respect Cote's carreer resurgence but that's an awesome line for Cerone, he should pretty much be better everywhere, except maybe power in his hands. Surprising match up though, Cerrone is moving up or Cote is moving down?
 
MidgardSerpent said:
I respect Cote's carreer resurgence but that's an awesome line for Cerone, he should pretty much be better everywhere, except maybe power in his hands. Surprising match up though, Cerrone is moving up or Cote is moving down?
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Cerrone just fought Brazilian Cowboy at 170. So seems like he's a WW now.
 
Agent Mulder said:
New lines on betsafe:

Northcutt/Marin 1.40 / 2.95

Gomi/Miller 2.45 / 1.55

Sanchez/Lauzon 1.90 / 1.90

Hendricks/Gastelum 1.45 / 2.75

Aldo/Edgar 1.75 / 2.08

Conor/Nate 1.95 / 1.85

Not loving anything. Might hit Sanchez.
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Exactly what i thiught surprisingly no fuck ups!
 
I hate putting money on long term bets but I got Nate Diaz at -110?? I think he should and will be around -200 closer to the fight.
 
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