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General MMA discussion and future lines - February 2016

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by OneWarrior1, Jan 16, 2016.

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  1. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Like that dec price too, especially considering it's a 3 round fight and all of Hectors losses are by dec.
     
  2. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Ferg itd +255

    I really think he's gonna stop Khabib. Ferg has show good cardio, doesn't seem to slow at all late in fights (in fact picks up the pace). Granted has never been in a 5 rounder but that doesn't really worry me as A) like I said he seems to actually increase output as the fight goes on and B) Khabib hasn't gone 5 rounds either.

    It's also 10 more minutes that Khabib potentially has to deal with Ferg's guard or his relentless forward pressure. In a 3 rounder I'd have less confidence that Ferg finds the finish. But 5 rounds trying to take down and control a guy like Ferg seems like too much to ask. Factoring in Khabib's layoff and the fact that Ferg has obviously hit his stride 100% and I think this is a terrific bet. There's times of course I play dogs for value, but this is one of those times I truly think the dog wins and would be completely comfortable betting Ferg at evens (but of course glad I don't have to).

    I'm already pretty big on Ferg ML but I had to add to his itd line as well. I am also hedging with Khabib by dec a bit at evens. If Khabib wins I really doubt he stops Ferg.
     
  3. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    .75u Shogun +200

    .25u Shogun DEC +645
     
  4. piglord Black Belt

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    i doubt we will get shamrock for evens, he will be a strong fav prob. i'm almost certain he's juicing and he's about 210 pounds, gracie is around 178 and it's not like the fucking old days where the no one had any ground game except the bjj kats. will play shamrock for sure.
     
  5. piglord Black Belt

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    i really like magny and ferguson at dog odds, especially magny. who knows what clean lombard is gonna be like.

    i actually like weidman as well even though i think most people will be on rockhold.
     
  6. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I want to play Ferg big but is +175 where it currently sits best price we get do we feel? I think money will come in on Ferg but im rubbish at guessing line movement.
     
  7. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    I think it will get better but im also terrible at predicting line movement lol.
     
  8. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Prob will play half now and half once the line has moved one way or the other.
     
  9. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Yeah me too. Hope we get a nice line on Ferg by sub.
     
  10. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Ferg sub +500 Betvictor. Im not really a prop bettor but laying £100 on that if it lets me.
     
  11. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Nice. Might have to open an account there. Dont think we'll get a better price than that in EU.
     
  12. danareem Green Belt

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    just hit over 1.5 rounds maia/brown, 4 units @1.65
     
  13. The MM Analyst Blue Belt

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    I have 8 units on Hunt over Mir. Hunt is only -170 and I don't think there's any way Mir wins that fight. Hunt is a better wrestler, Mir can't really wrestle at all, and Hunt kills him in the standup.
     
  14. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I took Hunt + Breese a while back @ around -120. Just hope Hunt is back in Thailand for this camp. My only concern is Mir dropping for a leg think he tried that against Reem.
     
  15. The MM Analyst Blue Belt

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    I have Breese on a parlay with Silva and Mousasi. I think Hunt's good enough on the ground to survive a brief exchange, and Mir usually goes to that as a desperation move without having solid position or setup.
     
  16. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    What? Which bookie? It's 1.45 at betsafe. 1.65 is crazy good.
     
  17. danareem Green Belt

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    5 dimes, bro.
    Can't see Brown getting the finish that fast, or Maia subbing him right away.
     
  18. tnsinga Blue Belt

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    I don't mind Mir at +150. I genuinely feel if he can stand up with Arlovski and tag him a few times as well as figure out his striking patterns, he can stand up with Hunt who is a little predictable with the bombs. He's also got a pretty good chin (he got hit alot by a roided up Reem but stayed in it). And if Frank can take Hunt down which is quite possible particularly later on in the fight then he could definitely get the sub
     
  19. danareem Green Belt

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    7 props for the mir/hunt fight up on 5dimes.
    hunt by decision @11.75
     
  20. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I don't know what Khabib's normal training pattern is so this may be normal and maybe he will fly over to AKA in a week or so. But he has started his camp in Bahrain. Potential red flag for me.
     
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