General MMA discussion and future lines - February 2016

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iGnP said:
While this is true, Ben is at a HUGE speed disadvantage. Wasn't he getting tagged repeatedly my Meathead before that stupid takedown? JDS may have been tentative in his last fight but Overeems and Rothwells stand up is miles apart. I'd be all over JDS as a significant dog
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JDS should be a bad stylistic matchup. Keyword, 'should'. But JDS would have to be a large underdog for me to play him. Other than straight punches down the pipe, which we can't even rely on, 2016 JDS has nothing for Ben. I'm not convinced hes anywhere near as fast or fluid as he used to be. In 7 minutes dude pulled the trigger one time vs Reem and backed out for no reason. Ben seems like the hungriest dude in the division, and when hes KOd K-1 champ Overeem and submitted the unsubmittable Barnett I just can't deny him anymore. I'l prob be playing Ben from this fight up until he gets a title shot as a dog.
 
Joseph Budden said:
I see Whittaker fighting for the belt by early next year. He's definitely the future of the division (kind of easy to say though when everyone is old). I don't plan on touching natal at any price, but if he's a crazy under dog you can't blame anyone for stabbing him
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idk about whittaker fighting for the belt, and i hear ya, but you'd have to play natal +500 or +600, right?
 
EzFlyer said:
idk about whittaker fighting for the belt, and i hear ya, but you'd have to play natal +500 or +600, right?
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If that was his money line id stab natal by decision real small just for the value. I'd be shocked if natal won this though
 
Joseph Budden said:
JDS should be a bad stylistic matchup. Keyword, 'should'. But JDS would have to be a large underdog for me to play him. Other than straight punches down the pipe, which we can't even rely on, 2016 JDS has nothing for Ben. I'm not convinced hes anywhere near as fast or fluid as he used to be. In 7 minutes dude pulled the trigger one time vs Reem and backed out for no reason. Ben seems like the hungriest dude in the division, and when hes KOd K-1 champ Overeem and submitted the unsubmittable Barnett I just can't deny him anymore. I'l prob be playing Ben from this fight up until he gets a title shot as a dog.
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when you say large underdog, do you mean like +300?
 
iGnP said:
when you say large underdog, do you mean like +300?
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Hmm. For moneyline i'd want JDS closer to +400 honestly. A +300 moneyline is probably the mark i'd play JDS by dec over Ben in a parlay though. I'm guessing JDS by decision is gonna be a very high line regardless, enough for me to stab at it. Even in a 25 min fight, Ben is so durable and mentally strong I can't see JDS getting rid of him and that line will probably be +1000 something.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Hmm. For moneyline i'd want JDS closer to +400 honestly. A +300 moneyline is probably the mark i'd play JDS by dec over Ben in a parlay though. I'm guessing JDS by decision is gonna be a very high line regardless, enough for me to stab at it. Even in a 25 min fight, Ben is so durable and mentally strong I can't see JDS getting rid of him and that line will probably be +1000 something.
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geez id play JDS at +150 no question in my mind
 
Shogun @ + 205 right now is worth a bet for me. He will probably lose the UD but since he's training with kings full time now, he's worth a few bucks to me.
 
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Joseph Budden said:
Really? Yeah for me +150 holds no value at all. JDS is obviously battle worn, and on top of that can't be trusted anymore.
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re-watch the fight and let's discuss the fight again closer to fight time. IMO Overeem had a great game plan against JDS. Overeem has a reach and speed advantage in addition to being the more diverse striker. he came out there with a plan unlike JDS who just looked like he was there to brawl. and while i agree that JDS isnt the most durable fighter anymore, that left hook would badly hurt anyone

but you're right about JDS by DEC having the most value. no question about it.
 
CM 4 said:
Shogun @ + 205 right now is worth a bet for me. He will probably lose the UD but since he's training with kings full time now, he's with a few bucks to me.
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i like it, too. i actually did 0.5u at +165
 
CM punk opens as +230 underdog vs Gall (-300)....
 
Shogun Evans should be closer to evens. I really like Shogun @ +200.
 
i am guessing natal will be a big dog and if so, i'm going to play him.

also, i'm sure the bookies are watching us. they know that mma is a profitable sport to bet on for people that know what they fuck they're doing. i would definitely be inclined to talk with some of the other regulars via AIM.
 
if i get JDS at dog odds i'm playing him with a huge wager.
 
anyone betting big on gall vs cm punk??? i thought gal would be up to -1000. the only thing i dont want to is to tie up alot of money for so long
 
CM 4 said:
Shogun @ + 205 right now is worth a bet for me. He will probably lose the UD but since he's training with kings full time now, he's worth a few bucks to me.
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agreed, evans looked like pure doo doo last time out.
 
WSOF 29 - Lightweight 5 rounds - Bank of Colorado Arena - Greeley, Colorado - NBC Sports
Sat 3/12 3001 Brian Foster +190 o1½ -185
11:59PM 3002 Justin Gaethje -270 u1½ +145
 
Damnit wish I bet more on Gall/Punk u1.5 -175. Already at -225
 
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