General MMA discussion and future lines - January 2016

[rille31]

early euro lines

cody garbrand 2.3 +130, lineker 1.57

 

[mkess101]

I dont think Mir has a poor chin but Hunt killed Roy Nelson with a uppercut. Also theres a big difference between guys like Duffee who has pretty bad striking in general and relies on their power and Hunt who is a very accurate striker. It takes a while for him to get his timing in but when he gets a read of you its usually good night. I just think he does very well against stationary, slow moving targets like Mir.
The only guy who really outclassed him in recent years is Stipe who moves well for a heavyweight. I dont think there's any reason to doubt Hunts chin yet, that flying knee from Werdum would have wrecked anybody. Should also be noted that he was doing pretty well before that knee.
Yes Mir took Arlovski down and this is obviously a concern but Mir looked completely gassed on top and was just resting. I dont know how seriously he prepares these days. The fight is in Australia so we know that Hunt will be motivated.

Yeah Hunt it obviously a better striker than Duffee (by a lot) but I guess I just meant in terms of power Duffee is right there and he landed on Mir and Mir wasn't fazed. He just stayed in there and threw his own power shots back. Mir's boxing and footwork have improved too, though his movements are more subtle and these days I agree he's very far from a quick HW. I wouldn't say I doubt Hunt's chin, but getting blasted by a knee like that from Werdum and eatig all those shots from Stipe make it more likely, not less, that his chin would start to show some cracks. I'm sure it's still good, but we've seen that Mir now hits like a truck and if he lands can put any HW to sleep. Plus there's always the chance Mir does get Hunt down earlier in the fight when he's not tired and then Hunt could be in trouble of getting subbed.

I do like your point about Australia. Mir has said how routine based he is, that could be a factor for sure. Hunt will be motivated no doubt. I do favor Hunt to win but I guess I just don't see a lot of value in the line where it is. Maybe I'm also biased in that I'e rooted for Mir since he entered the UFC LOL. (Always liked Hunto too but Mir has always been my favorite HW).

 

[wack3d]

i wont place any bets before we see what shape hunt and mir is in closer to fight time.. if they both look the same shape as there last fights mir (very soft) hunt (best shape ever proberly) then it will be an easy bet for hunt

 

[Sham5916910]

Woah, Ferguson opened as a -400 fav on unibet.

The bookies have finally clocked on to Ferg have got him at great odds for his last 4 or so fights. Did not expect -400 tho!

£500 Hunt + Breese @ -120.

 

[bruthead]

Paddy Power have Miocic 9/2 +450 to hold the belt at the end of 2016, Bet Victor have Werdum 7/4 +175.

Probably some small value in both, especially if Cain's injury woes continue.

 

[mkess101]

Paddy Power have Miocic 9/2 +450 to hold the belt at the end of 2016, Bet Victor have Werdum 7/4 +175.

Probably some small value in both, especially if Cain's injury woes continue.

No value in Werdum imo, and ironically enough I think he actually WILL have the title. But +175 for him to beat Cain and Stipe isn't nearly enough. Might as well bet him at +120 vs Cain and then decide what you want to do once the lines come out vs Stipe. Plus add that your $ is tied up in the bet for a year and it's REALLY not worth it.

Stipe maybe a little value if you think he has a decent shot vs Cain or Werdum. There's a chance if he won it that he wouldn't defend until 2017.

Edit: Welp, just got home and saw Cain is out. So disregard basically...everything I said above LOL.

 

[wack3d]

betsafe released all the lines for fox18 and some more.. magny +101 lineker -142 rosholt +150 makovsky +350 hendricks -222 miocic +150 vs werdum -188

 

[Agent Mulder]

betsafe released all the lines for fox18 and some more.. magny +101 lineker -142 rosholt +150 makovsky +350 hendricks -222 miocic +150 vs werdum -188

I like those Magny and Hendricks lines. Lineker too i think.

 

[wack3d]

I like those Magny and Hendricks lines. Lineker too i think.

i like those too.. still worried about the size difference with lineker and cody but lineker smashed rivera last time out at 135 and cody had some problems against briones if i remember right.. briones style reminds me of lineker but lineker is way better

 

[rille31]

Paddy Power have Miocic 9/2 +450 to hold the belt at the end of 2016, Bet Victor have Werdum 7/4 +175.

Probably some small value in both, especially if Cain's injury woes continue.

I dont know man

stipe would have to win against werdum and maybe defend the belt 3 more times during 2016 to keep it at the end of the year

betfair had stipe to hold the belt sometime during 2016 @ +1000, now that was a good bet

 

[bruthead]

Yeah, I played that Stipe +1000 line but the max was £25.

Can't see Stipe having to defend 3 times, 2 max surely?

 

[wack3d]

not sure if you guys know this but PokerStars have opened a bookie now BetStars and they offer ufc lines

alot of juice... but still they have the best lines avaliable atm on rivera and saffiedine and always nice with another euro bookie that has decent limits on the big fights at least.

ss of some of the lines..

Spoiler

[/IMG]

to find the lines look under boxing>tournaments to find ufc

 

[rille31]

Yeah, I played that Stipe +1000 line but the max was £25.

Can't see Stipe having to defend 3 times, 2 max surely?

maybe but that is still atleast 3 fights combined he propably has to win this year to keep the belt at the end of 2016

his ml for the werdum fight is already +225 and will propably just get better

 

[Roads55]

betsafe released all the lines for fox18 and some more.. magny +101 lineker -142 rosholt +150 makovsky +350 hendricks -222 miocic +150 vs werdum -188

I like the makhovsky line, i assume you put a typo he's actually +350, I gotta bet small at those odds,

 

[Sham5916910]

Is Jones at +110 to beat DC by dec a really good line or would you expect that? I thinj thats how he wins at least 8 times out of 10.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Is Jones at +110 to beat DC by dec a really good line or would you expect that? I thinj thats how he wins at least 8 times out of 10.

Yeah I agree with you. Should be a decision if Jones hasn't increased his striking power significantly with the strenght training. AJ hit DC clean a couple of times and he survived without much problem (except the first clean hit but even though he got knocked down he seemed to be in it).

 

[Sham5916910]

Yeah I agree with you. Should be a decision if Jones hasn't increased his striking power significantly with the strenght training. AJ hit DC clean a couple of times and he survived without much problem (except the first clean hit but even though he got knocked down he seemed to be in it).

Cheers i thought so. Think i will throw a couple hundred on that before i forget.

 

[EzFlyer]

Is Jones at +110 to beat DC by dec a really good line or would you expect that? I thinj thats how he wins at least 8 times out of 10.

you're saying like 4 times out of 5 when jones wins, it's via decision? idk if i agree, maybe 3/5

jones can finish anyone, and man he looks better physically than he did before all this crap...

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Demian Maia vs Matt Brown announced for May 14th. Nice!

 

[Sham5916910]

you're saying like 4 times out of 5 when jones wins, it's via decision? idk if i agree, maybe 3/5

jones can finish anyone, and man he looks better physically than he did before all this crap...

Yeah he can but i cant see him stopping DC with strikes he lacks power and i cant see him catching a sub from top as i cant see him taking DC down. Where would you expect that line to be?