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General MMA discussion and future lines - January 2016

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 5, 2016.

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  1. rille31 Brown Belt

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    Ferguson 2.65 +165
     
  2. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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    No large height advantage, no striking advantage, and no BJJ advantage for Chiesa here. As long as the standard Dariush shows up, he should beat Chiesa. Dariush also improves his skills in every fight.
     
  3. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    More or less exactly what I was thinking
     
  4. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Yeah Dariush takes this. Bad matchup for Chiesa. Dariush is better standing and on the ground.
     
  5. Bless Orange Belt

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    UFC on Fox 19 - Lightweight 5 rounds - Fox Sat 4/16
    1001 Tony Ferguson 2.650 (+165) o3½ 1.571 (-175)
    1002 Khabib Nurmagomedov 1.465 (-215) u3½ 2.350 (+135)

    UFC on Fox 19 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - Fox
    1101 Mauricio Rua 2.300 (+130) o2½ 1.476 (-210)
    1102 Rashad Evans 1.588 (-170) u2½ 2.600 (+160)

    UFC on Fox 19 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Fox
    1201 Mike Chiesa 2.600 (+160) o2½ 1.625 (-160)
    1202 Beneil Dariush 1.476 (-210) u2.5 2.200 (+120)
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2016
  6. null Gold Belt

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    I put a unit on Ferguson over Khabib at +165. I don't love betting this far in advance usually but I think that he will get bet, especially since Khabib is coming back off of an injury and long layoff.
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    i kinda like shogun +165. i actually kinda liked +130 opener, so yea, taking a small piece of +165.

    ferguson already getting bet from +165 opener... bahhh, idk tho, i could see khabib's supporters moving it back up

    chiesa getting early action; i think it's a really interesting fight, but i think dariush better standup and better jits.. but this one could be interesting.

    i'm already on record: i love me some matt brown, but this is a NIGHTMARE matchup. maia all day.
     
  8. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Khabib -210 lol cmon
     
  9. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Ahh dammit missed. Now +135. I have no idea where the line goes from here. Ferg isn't gonna bet down to evens I don't think is he? Guess I'll just wait and see if any Khabib $ comes in at all. Maybe just wait for Ferg itd line. Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck.
     
  10. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I really think he will get bet down to evens.
     
  11. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Shit I know I started thinking which is more likely, he goes back to +165 or drops to +105 and yeah it's more likely more Ferg $ comes in imo. I'm hit or miss when predicting line moves but I lean toward your way of thinking. I put 1u Ferg at +135. If his itd line looks okay will add for sure given it's a 5 rounder. And if there's a bump at all to even +150 or better will probably add half a unit.
     
  12. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    not sure if posted yet, I kinda like magny's price not sure if i'll take it yet. tempted to bet hunt as well, but he's not getting any younger

    Neil Magny - Hector Lombard
    2.01 1.80

    Mark Hunt - Frank Mir
    1.60 2.34

    is this line US books or euro?
     
  13. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Ferg back up to +160
     
  14. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    hunto down to -175 again, getting a little on it this time (was regretting balking at the -165 originally)
     
  15. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    magny spiked to +130 for a sec.. then back to +110..

    (still just have lombard +130 for just over 1u but idk on this fight)
     
  16. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Well I couldn't have played that any worse. Miss opener at +165. Bet him at +135.Watch as just a few hours later he's back up to +160.

    F it, another unit on Ferg just to increase my line to +147.
     
  17. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    I'm a huge ferg backer. But I know khabib fans are out there. The +250 last time kept climbing
     
  18. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yeah I'm wondering though if they will be gunshy with their wallets given the 2 year layoff plus the run that Ferg is on? If Ferg does climb I'm gonna be in deep, that much I know. Already 2u on him averaged at +147. Would add another if he gets to +200 or close. And again if he gets close to that +250. Would def hedge some off with Khabib by dec. but at this point I actually pick Ferg straight up to win so it's hard not to bet him at solid + odds.
     
  19. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    it was only like .. two months ago? or less? that they were betting khabib -300 etc
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Really? That's bonkers, thought it was way longer. Only thing that's changed is that Ferg stopped Barboza. Maybe people waking up to how good Ferg is? I'm comfortable going up to 4u on him if line climbs, I guess we'll see.
     
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