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General MMA discussion and future lines - January 2016

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 5, 2016.

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  1. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Man, idk on those two Unders.

    I don't hate either of them.. But saff is not a finisher. He just isn't.. But it pays fairly well.. K-taro is fairly tough. Not sure how likely he is to make it 7.5 mins against breese... I'm sold on breese for sure after his last fight, but idk.

    As a rule, btw I hate u2.5's in 3 rounders.. (And u4.5 in 5). I say pay a lil more and take "does not go 3"
     
  2. YoungScholar Brown Belt

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    I agree on Saffiedine not really being a finisher, but I don't think he'll need to look too much for it to get it against Ellenberger. It's mostly a fade on Ellenbergers chin/play on his power. I was actually looking seriously at Saffiedine ITD @ +275 but then saw I could also get Ellenberger ITD (minus the last 2½ minutes) at only 100 points less. Seems solid to me.

    For my bookies at least, there are no other lines out, so might be jumping the gun a bit but I could see Breese R1 being @ +100 and Breese ITD being like -250. Might be overrating him a bit but Nakamura was getting boxed up badly by Jingliang Li before the miraculous RNC in his last fight. If Breese looks anything like he did against Pendred he should slaughter him quickly.

    Over/Unders have generally been my achilles heal when it comes to MMA betting and your lack of optimism doesn't exactly increase confidence here, but I liked both these enough to put down some early $.
     
  3. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    i believe RFA 34 odds are about to hit 5d.

    think velickovic might open -140 if i'm hearing right, and i like it.
     
  4. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    AXS Fighting Money Line
    RFA 34 - Welterweight 5 rounds - 1STBANK Center - Broomfield, Colorado - AXS

    Fri 1/15 3001 Benjamin Smith +100
    10:00PM 3002 Bojan Velickovic -140
    RFA 34 - Middleweight 3 rounds - 1STBANK Center - Broomfield, Colorado - AXS
    Fri 1/15 3101 John Poppie +160
    10:00PM 3102 Adam Stroup -210
    RFA 34 - Lightweight 3 rounds - 1STBANK Center - Broomfield, Colorado - AXS
    Fri 1/15 3201 Cody Mumma +150
    10:00PM 3202 Jeremy Kimball -190
    RFA 34 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - 1STBANK Center - Broomfield, Colorado - AXS
    Fri 1/15 3301 Zac Riley +800
    10:00PM 3302 Hugo Viana -1700

    yep.

    i like velickovic -140. not sure where it's gonna move, but i like it. he's bigger, longer, way better on feet. smith can win if he can get td's going but i like it. 5 rounds is good i think for velickovic.

    idk on the others.

    lol @ viana line
     
  5. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    poppie, stroup, kimball, mumma, riley are all colorado natives.

    they can be biased there. just for the record.

    but i guess four of those guys are fighting eachother, anyway
     
  6. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    tailed you on velickovic. Yeah Vianna line is pretty wild. I stabbed at riley at +850... hey c'mon shit happens all the time.
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    hehe i don't blame ya, just no clue on him, trying to watch stuff on poppie fight etc, i know he was on tuf prelims etc
     
  8. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    ok, so mumma, like poppie, also fought to get into house on tuf 19.

    poppie lost to hillbilly hearththrob. poppie doesn't seem to excel anywhere. some striking, some wrestling..

    mumma lost to anton berzin (what happened to this guy?) to get into the house

    mumma is a striker mostly, heshould have edge over kimball on the feet. mumma vs kimball is gonna look like two cavemen fighting eachother
     
  9. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Hit Veli at -170. Hes worth it at anything under -200 imo
     
  10. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I'm liking the dogs for AXS.
     
  11. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    1.4u velickovic -140
    0.33u mumma +150

    kinda fading kimball.
     
  12. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    sell me on poppie?
     
  13. pride_rules Purple Belt

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    i thought parlays made more money but they actually do not. if u cant make wagers at fight time or you wont be around for it i can see the use. but all the parlay does is reinvest ur first bet and winnings over and over. so instead i have just reinvested my bets my self "as confidence in next bet applys" so instead of locking your parlay down for 3-5 fights. u get more freedom and less risk. lets say u put 5 on first fight and reinvest on second and win that too. 3rd fight u feel slightly less confident about. so put less on that fight. securing that you keep what u make on winning fights. just my insight. not trying to sound like i know all or anything just something that has helped my bankroll out
     
  14. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    oh man, kimball weighed in 209.4

    he was too heavy when he was a 185'er

    i'm betting more on mumma
     
  15. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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  16. pride_rules Purple Belt

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    looking like battle of the caveman lol. guy on right looks more tribal lol. i got him off the looks lol
     
  17. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Absolutely not tail worthy, but he only lost to Sanchez (although he was dominated) and Eric Schafer. Cleveland is a decent win as his only losses besides Poppie lately was Montgomery and Bush. I just don't see how Stroup is much better than him.
     
  18. wack3d Silver Belt

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    tiny stab on riley +1100 never been that impressed with viana.. predictable fighter with sketchy cardio.. watched a tiny bit of riley in a muay thai fight looks pretty decent very agressive with some decent power
     
  19. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Ok, playing

    Riley +1100 very small
    Mumma +150 smallish
    Thinking about playing Poppie
     
  20. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    k, ty
     
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