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General MMA discussion and future lines - July 2016

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by vkram, Jul 1, 2016.

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  1. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    death by hugging decision?
     
  2. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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    I'm currently watching a documentary on Netflix called Prescription Thugs, where Chris Leben talks a little bit about his pill popping.

    Leben mentions: "I got sick when I fought Brian Stann; I told everybody it was sugar. Nobody knows this.

    I was backstage diarrhea-ing and vomiting between my legs. And they're calling "Chris Leben, out to fight, here you go, let's go."

    I stepped into the cage like that."
     
  3. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    The whole Conor thing was kind of a bummer with Nate on Conan and the taped message. Does Conor think anyone believes the stuff he's saying anymore? He's saying "The boy won the lotto blah blah blah" but it just rings so hollow. Winning the lotto in a fight is landing a wild haymaker when you're clearly outclassed. Does Conor expect everyone to believe he what...learned how to punch harder between the first fight and now? Because uhh Conor, we all saw you land. Clean. A lot of times. And it straight up didn't matter. That other guy ate everything you threw at him and wasn't really even fazed. So how exactly are we supposed to buy that he "won the lotto"?

    I miss the days when Conor could say "ave I been wrong yet?" and the answer was a legit no. It made things so much fun. Now it's all just...empty. We saw what happened buddy.
     
  4. piglord Black Belt

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    conor stole his entire personality from the 48 laws of power by robert greene. i think he's in for a rough night yet again. i give conor the advantage in hand speed and power, but nate has more technical standup, size, reach, better cardio, significantly better jiujitsu and better training partners. i think nate at dog odds is completely ridiculous but i'll happily bang that line if i'm profitable earlier in the night.
     
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I honestly don't even think you need to go into all that other stuff. I think Conor offensively is at least Nate's equal from a technical standpoint. (Both have defensive deficiencies but their chins bail them out.) The huge issue that I don't think he can overcome is that he's a power striker that relies on 1) Landing power shots and 2) them making his opponents crumble. I don't think it's a stretch to say that's basically Conor's gameplan every time out. And at FW it's worked brilliantly. But against a bigger guy with a good chin it doesn't translate. He threw and landed the same shots and Nate just took them and kept coming forward. And when Conor began to tire, Nate's volume took over.

    For anyone thinking Conor wins this rematch, I'm interested to know his path to victory. Be more conservative? Try to outpoint Nate and win a decision? We've seen him land his power shots and Nate walk through them. This time will be different and he'll actually hurt Nate with them? I'm searching for how Conor wins this and for a fight where the line is basically even I'm having a pretty hard time finding a clear path to victory for Conor.
     
  6. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Improve his cardio, dictate the pace with a more in and out strategy, kick Diazs lead leg. As I've stated a couple time since lines released, I plan on making Not Conor itd my biggest bet ever. Part of that is because I do think him taking a decision is conceivable, and I deem to be a highly intelligent fighter. But I definitely favor Diaz to win and will be on his money line as well
     
  7. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    In theory that's what I'd say too. But wow that really is asking a guy to basically become a totally different style fighter. Conor using an "in and out style" is basically asking him to point fight. Possible, but it's a huge change from being a deadly counter striker with massive power for the weight class. Throwing and consistently landing power shots seems like a brilliant strategy in any fight right LOL? Yet to win he may need to go against every instinct he has when it comes to fighting.
     
  8. piglord Black Belt

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    this is a horrible match up for conor. that being said, after he loses i will continue to bet him when he faces midgets in the 145 division.
     
  9. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Eh, I don't doubt Conor's ability to adapt. Asking him to do that wouldn't be that much different than how he fought Holloway. As long as he has the cardio this time, attacking the lead leg will help him dictate the pace and space, and from there it's just a matter of knowing when to pressure and when to reset and set things up and avoid Nate getting a comfortable rhythm going. He doesn't have to point fight, he can keep his output up, but just has to be smarter about it and be prepared cardio wise.

    I think taking this strategy will even help him with cardio, because a big factor in the first fight seemed to be Conor would relentlessly pressure and Nates volume had him slipping punches and forcing counters nonstop. Not only do I think that hurts his cardio, but feeds into Nates style. 25 min is a long time, and a high level striker like Nate isn't going to go that length of time getting confused by slip and rip counters.
     
  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    The thing is that Holloway still respected Conor's power. Nate really didn't. When I say "point fight" I don't mean drop his overall output. I mean throw way less power strikes with the intention of hurting the other guy. Because when you throw those, they tire you whether they land or not. Now against everyone else when they've landed it hasn't mattered. The guys fall down and turtle up.

    I agree about attacking the lead leg. Nate's reach makes it a bit tricky because he can still hit Conor with his jab when Conor throws kicks at that lead leg. Add to that the fact that Conor has to be wary of Nate sneaking a TD in there if he's throwing too many kicks. On the mat is obviously a place Conor needs to avoid like the plague.
     
  11. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    If he attacks the lead leg he'd definitely have to use his hands to set up the kicks . MJ showed that unless Nate comes in overweight, walking out of those event interviews like he did vs RDA, he'll check the kicks and counter if someone gets too comfortable. One of Conor's best strikes in the first fight though was a low line kick side kick that made Nates knee buckle in. If you're talking about reactive takedowns as a kick is thrown, or having a round kick caught into a takedown, honestly id say that's not a worry at all. Nate has never done either of those things
     
  12. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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  13. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Im so hoping r1 is like last time and we get a great lb line on diaz.
     
  14. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Nate actually hit one against maybe Jim Miller iirc? He did it against someone, though I agree it's obviously not a big part of his game at all. But...against a smaller guy where Nate knows he has such a massive advantage if he can get it to the mat? It may be something they are looking at hard in his camp. For how utterly dumb the Diaz bros can make themselves sound at times, they are extremely high fight IQ guys in that they know what they do well, where they have advantages, and they have the training partners to sharpen them.

    I'm super pumped for 202. 201...meh. Couple interesting fights but overall...yawn. Other than Robbie, who seems to make it always worth watching.
     
  15. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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    Good morning everyone.
     
  16. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    How the hell does that guy do a flying stomp and then act like it was a mistake?

    Looks like could've finished that too if he just followed up with punches
     
  17. danareem Green Belt

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    lawler odds exploding
     
  18. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Oh lord. Bigfoot vs Big Country in September.
     
  19. Barkus Brown Belt

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    Loser leaves town match.
     
  20. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Feel bad for Bigfoot, but just hoping Nelson by KO is under -200 so I can make some serious bread on that TRT-less chin
     
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