General MMA discussion and future lines - June 2016

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arrelione said:
Hi guys!

I placed a 13$ 12 team parlay(8/12 already hit) with a possible 65717$ pay out!

I am usually against hedging but this would be my biggest win ever and a significant cash out for me outside of betting as well, so I am nervous about the play even though I really liked some of these plays a lot more before the hail marry got a real chance of hitting.

Nevertheless, I've got Roy Nelson ITD, TJ Dillashaw, Cat Zingano and Lesnar/Hunt UNDER 0,5 rounds(150 seconds) left to cash in on the parlay.

Right now I am thinking about two ways to go about this but am open to hear your suggestions as well as I haven't made up my mind yet.

Option 1: No hedge on Roy or TJ, big hedge on Pena, and if the parlay is still alive a big hedge on Over 0,5 on Lesnar/Hunt.

Option 2: Heding all the fights one by one. I haven't put much thought into the amount on the possible hedges though.

I've never wanted fights to get cancelled as much as I want these fights to get cancelled.

Any advice for a fellow degen on how you would handle this situation?
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Not Nelson ITD is -132
Pena +150
RA +340
not sure what the odds are for Brock/Hunt over 0.5 round (euro book?)

id prob just let the Dillashaw bet stand and hedge every other one depending on how you feel about each one. They are basically coin flips and that is a substantial amount of money. Hedge out
 
@arrelionepersonally I'd hedge for a bit of guaranteed profit while leaving most of it in play.

It might be hard to hedge on the brock/hunt bet as limits for props like that are going to be smaller, and seeing as you'll need to hedge a LOT it could be an issue.

do plenty of research (number crunching) into the amounts you can hedge, and fiddle with them too see the potential numbers of hedging different combo's of the bet's left, for different amounts. just to get a real clear idea of your options.

keep a very close eye on the odds of all the bets left, any big or even small changes could largely affect your profit if you are going to hedge.

if your still indecisive about hedging some of the bets left, but still have a strong lean for the outcome of a particular fight, maybe look at some alternate methods of victory or other props where the odds are higher so you'd have to hedge less of your potential profit.

watch tape on the fighters in the bets to see if your initial leans have changed, with that amount of money at stake I'd be watching the necessary fights several times over. all my tired brain can think off atm.
 
Betsafe

Ross Pearson - Will Brooks 2.75-1.45

Peter Sobotta - Nicolas Dalby 1.70-2.15
Scott Askham - Jack Hermansson 1.80-2.01


not the usual fuck ups but played Dalby and Brooks

for the murican bettors will brooks is somethin like -210
 
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How good are Brooks' takedowns? I imagine if Dunham can wrestlefuck Pearson then Brooks can?
 
-200 good value?

Gotta question Pearson's tdd prep as he was meant to be fighting Krause. And if you look at his record he's been spoon fed strikers going all the way back to his fight with Couture (besides Maynard sandwiched in the middle). So i wonder how much he has been working on his wrestling...

What is Brooks' striking like?

Ross is defo on my fade list seems to have stagnated and pretty much trades a win for a loss. His last two wins have been razor thin too. I don't like betting blind but all the value seems on Brooks here.
 
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rille31 said:
Betsafe

Ross Pearson - Will Brooks 2.75-1.45

Peter Sobotta - Nicolas Dalby 1.70-2.15
Scott Askham - Jack Hermansson 1.80-2.01


not the usual fuck ups but played Dalby and Brooks

for the murican bettors will brooks is somethin like -210
Click to expand...

Value on Brooks, Dalby and Askham.
 
He is always very accurate with his predictions. He predicted every main card fight right for UFC 194.

We need to get his attention through Twitter or Instagram and ask him to share us his wisdom to gain us all a red panty night after UFC 200 and the other fights before it.
 
Brooks -210?! Yeah i'd def play him at those odds. We'll see where American books open him, wouldn't be surprised if its a bit steeper.
 
Even tho I'm going blind here i still like him @ -260 as parlay fodder.
 
Off topic but did anybody notice that the ufc.tv stream was less delayed then usual?

It was like 30 seconds ahead of my btsports stream and it's always been the other way around, could be that the bt stream was more delayed then usual but hoping its something with the updated layout, the delay is a pretty big deal when live betting
 
rille31 said:
Off topic but did anybody notice that the ufc.tv stream was less delayed then usual?

It was like 30 seconds ahead of my btsports stream and it's always been the other way around, could be that the bt stream was more delayed then usual but hoping its something with the updated layout, the delay is a pretty big deal when live betting
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Agreed!!! That 30 second delay on ufc.tv was a pain in the ass for livebetting, hope thats fixed now.
 
arrelione said:
Hi guys!

I placed a 13$ 12 team parlay(8/12 already hit) with a possible 65717$ pay out!

I am usually against hedging but this would be my biggest win ever and a significant cash out for me outside of betting as well, so I am nervous about the play even though I really liked some of these plays a lot more before the hail marry got a real chance of hitting.

Nevertheless, I've got Roy Nelson ITD, TJ Dillashaw, Cat Zingano and Lesnar/Hunt UNDER 0,5 rounds(150 seconds) left to cash in on the parlay.

Right now I am thinking about two ways to go about this but am open to hear your suggestions as well as I haven't made up my mind yet.

Option 1: No hedge on Roy or TJ, big hedge on Pena, and if the parlay is still alive a big hedge on Over 0,5 on Lesnar/Hunt.

Option 2: Heding all the fights one by one. I haven't put much thought into the amount on the possible hedges though.

I've never wanted fights to get cancelled as much as I want these fights to get cancelled.

Any advice for a fellow degen on how you would handle this situation?
Click to expand...
Think its to early to hedge, hopefully that Roy lines hit and maybe you could think about it, Im thinking that Hunt/lesnar will propably bust that parlay
 
Condit vs Maia @ 202

Kind of upset this isn't a five rounder, but looking forward to this. Also, Magny vs Kim is on @ 202. Card is looking amazing.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Condit vs Maia @ 202

Kind of upset this isn't a five rounder, but looking forward to this. Also, Magny vs Kim is on @ 202. Card is looking amazing.
Click to expand...

Wow, they're not messing around with that card.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Condit vs Maia @ 202

Kind of upset this isn't a five rounder, but looking forward to this. Also, Magny vs Kim is on @ 202. Card is looking amazing.
Click to expand...
ah i was kinda hoping Maia and Condit wouldn't get matched up. cant deny Maia a title shot if he pulls this one off, though (i really dont think he will)
 
iGnP said:
ah i was kinda hoping Maia and Condit wouldn't get matched up. cant deny Maia a title shot if he pulls this one off, though (i really dont think he will)
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Yeah, I think a lot of people will be on Maia, and its definitely a winnable fight. But eventually his gastank is going to get him killed. I'm gonna be all over the Condit's round 3 line.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Yeah, I think a lot of people will be on Maia, and its definitely a winnable fight. But eventually his gastank is going to get him killed. I'm gonna be all over the Condit's round 3 line.
Click to expand...
Condit is, what, like 2-4 in his last 6? Maia has won his last 5 very very convincingly. Very curious as to what the line will open as (PM me if you want to speculate)
 
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