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General MMA discussion and future lines - June 2016

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by rille31, Jun 1, 2016.

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  1. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Gunnar probably isn't used to getting ran through on the mat like that though. Not like he trains with anyone close to his level of jiu jitsu. He said himself he felt drained fast.

    A Condit round 3 KO is such an incredibly likely scenario imo. Maia gets more and more desperate for the takedowns as time passes and his cardio goes down. Matt Brown had him hurt bad in round 3 from a punch while Maia was flopping around for a leg. I don't think Condit will get as frustrated as Brown, is a better striker than Brown, just as good cardio if not better, he's much more active w his grappling. Plenty of reasons to favor a late finish for Condit or a 29-28
     
  2. kenCs Couches, couches, couches which one should I pick? Banned

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    Maia's cardio has improved by a whole lot. He doesn't gas as easily lately, maybbe because he is just dominating but I thought he looked okay in the later rounds with Laflare iirc.

    I like Maia R3/dec props if they are in the +400 and above tbh. Unless Carlos r3 dec props look appealing, Ill play the maia props. Carlos TDD is utter shit tbh and I doubt Maia will struggle taking him down if he has done it in round 1 and 2. Having Maia on you will sap your energy and I doubt his TDD will get better as the fight reaches r3.
     
  3. kenCs Couches, couches, couches which one should I pick? Banned

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    Lately, in this forum, we see a price we like for a fighter who is a dog and really try to justify why they are going to win instead of looking at it as objectively as possible. We then try to look for anything that supports our fighter and pile it on in here with group mentality. This has cost us in this forum with recent calls just because we liked the price of fighter. I for one have done this a few times, recently with Cote over Cerrone, and will try to not do it again. Cote was clearly inferior skill wise but I was so concerned with Cote having a size & power difference and him being +155, that I ignored my knowledge of MMA and tried to only look at the positives for Cote. I think this type of thinking loses more money than it gains.

    Without the odds, who do you guys think wins Condit/Maia without looking at the odds. Why? Personally I think Maia, because of his grappling, momentum with his winstreak and mentality. Condit was considering retirement before and after the Lawler fight whilst Maia is gunning for a title shot. Now I know Condit poses problems, and is miles ahead in the stand up but his TDD is 39%. Maia has the best single leg at 170. But these are my initial thoughts. I will look at the fight more and more obectively through the coming weeks but thats me.
     
  4. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Ken you are spot on dude. A big red flag is Condit's retirement talk and as you say his awful tdd. Condit r3 is cleary a goodbet tho. Even the draw could be worth a stab if Condit can pull out a 10-8 in r3.
     
  5. iGnP Silver Belt

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    One aspect of the Condit/Maia fight that I don't think has been brought up is Condit's coaching at Jacksons. It's a tough comparison but seeing how they were able to coach up Holly to avoid Ronda's takedowns with her movement makes me believe they can do something very similar with Condit since the takedown is the only thing Condit really has to worry about
     
  6. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Did Ronda even go for a takedown?! Let's be honest Ronda fought the worst gameplan I have ever seen from a high level UFC fighter. She thought she could out strike Holm. Maia is not going to come out guns blazing and try to knock Condit out. More Ronda/Edmund's arrogance then Jackson's game planning.

    Koch Dober announced for Cleveland. Please have mercy on the line betting Gods.
     
  7. Ballsaque Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    What? Pretty sure she went for 1 or 2 takedowns and got stuffed like it was nothing. She was forced to try and strike her way into the clinch, exactly because she got totally denied every time she tried for her usual Judo takedowns.
     
  8. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    This. She had no choice but to strike.
     
  9. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Ok my memory is hazy on the fight specifics. But stuffed or not she still fought with zero fight IQ charging in as she did to close the distance.
     
  10. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Maia has better wrestling obviously where Ronda needs to clinch to use judo, but they basically fight exactly the same lol bull rush to get it to the ground. After round 1 Maia doesn't really set up his takedowns, he just charges forward and keeps going for them
     
  11. iGnP Silver Belt

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    She literally always does that lol
     
  12. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    But you dont do that against a world champion boxer. Champions adapt.
     
  13. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Easy to say that now. Everyone expected Holm to get taken down just as easy as everyone else when Ronda got in the clinch, and not easy to adapt when you are getting walloped and have a shit coach

    Rewatch the Brown fight. There was a point in round 3 where Maia is so tired hes just diving at legs and chilling in buttscoot and, as Lord Conor would say, his head clattered off the canvas from a massive Brown punch. I have no doubts Condit is going to make Maia work harder than Brown did, whether hes winning or losing.

    I know Maia got the round 3 sub, but the proof is in the pudding. The dude slows and gets more and more desperate to bullrush onto a leg as the fight goes on. Happened with Brown, happened with Rory, kind of happened with Laflare even though it took til the championship rounds. I think frustration had a lot to do with Brown giving up that late choke. Would be shocking if he won round 3, nevermind finished Carlos imo
     
  14. iGnP Silver Belt

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  15. kenCs Couches, couches, couches which one should I pick? Banned

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    I will rewatch to refresh my memory. I just feel Maia is the worst match up possible for Condit atm. A draw sounds enticing to me aswell.

    -150 to -165 for Maia. Anything higher and its not worth paying the juice. A Maia dec prop sounds much better if the price is way above this range. Condit at +220 is insane to me though.

    A draw is also worth a stab.
     
  16. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I wouldnt feel comfortable putting Maia in my usual two man parlay so under -200. Maybe around -170. I missed Condit @ +220 on Betsafe and regret not taking +175 when i had the chance. Cardio and age being concerns plus his shitty striking. I do expect his age to show in a fight soon. But i do favour him as Condit's tdd is bad and Maia's the best td artist who can then keep you grounded and dominate at WW.
     
  17. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    On the topic of Maia, everyone should go to BJJScout channel on YouTube and watch the Maia study he recently did. Absolutely amazing.
     
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