General MMA discussion and future lines - March 2016

[EzFlyer]

Yup, I hit that and R4/5

i have two "gut feels" on this one.

the first is: khabib might wilt before that point, ferg is such a relentless fighter for your return fight

the second, however, is.... khabib will pull out before the fight!

 

[weedreference]

i'm liking shogun for sure given the current odds.

rashad looked sooo gunshy in his return.

He was backing Bader up effectively... just kept getting countered, which was surprising.

Still, I also like shogun at the current odds.

 

[Sham5916910]

I thought Ferg sub @ +500 was good!

 

[Agent Mulder]

I thought Ferg sub @ +500 was good!

And i took it @ +400. Lmao.

 

[Sham5916910]

Tempting to finalise my Ferg SU play. I got two bets at +175 and +160 its now sitting at +150 and i only see it dropping.

Shogun +210 @ Coral.

 

[EzFlyer]

That ferg no judges -135 line was gooooold... Already -225

 

[SirKratos]

I like the Souza-Belfort ITD odds.

I'm gonna hit it before it drops down even more

And what do you guys think about D.Johnson by UD @ +160 ?

 

[mkess101]

I like the Souza-Belfort ITD odds.

I'm gonna hit it before it drops down even more

And what do you guys think about D.Johnson by UD @ +160 ?

That Mighty Mouse line is sweet. I have him by dec at -110. Him winning by UD is by far the most likely outcome imo.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

That ferg no judges -135 line was gooooold... Already -225

lol yup, that's the first line I hit.

 

[Sham5916910]

I like the Souza-Belfort ITD odds.

I'm gonna hit it before it drops down even more

And what do you guys think about D.Johnson by UD @ +160 ?

Like it. His SU line of -222 was line of the year so far IMO.

Just added more to Ferg so i have slightly under 1k on him at varying odds of +150, +160 and +175.

Also put £250 on Shogun @ +210.

Im dog hunting that card. Two fights where i feel the lines are completely wrong.

 

[Ballsaque]

5 Units Fergie +175
1 Unit Fergie sub +500
0.3 Unit Fergie RD 3
0.3 Unit Fergie RD 4
0.3 Unit Fergie RD 5

5 Units Fergie no scorecards.

 

[mkess101]

@Joseph Budden

Not to hijack this thread with hypothetical Conor matchups but just this one I want your take:

At 155:

Conor -250
Ferguson +200

Conor, Ferg, or pass?

 

[cagebrain]

@Joseph Budden

Not to hijack this thread with hypothetical Conor matchups but just this one I want your take:

At 155:

Conor -250
Ferguson +200

Conor, Ferg, or pass?

You didn't ask me, but thats a tricky one. First impression is its a dog or pass situation, Cucuy's got the height, reach, and wrestling, good on the feet. Would be an extremely interesting fight to watch.

Of course after the Diaz fight opinions may change one way or the other.

 

[mkess101]

You didn't ask me, but thats a tricky one. First impression is its a dog or pass situation, Cucuy's got the height, reach, and wrestling, good on the feet. Would be an extremely interesting fight to watch.

Of course after the Diaz fight opinions may change one way or the other.

I'd bet Cucoy at these odds. The x factor with him is his creativity in getting the fight to the mat. And from there his grappling is so slick.

Would just be an awesome fight. One of the absolute best potential matchups out there imo.

 

[Joseph Budden]

@Joseph Budden

Not to hijack this thread with hypothetical Conor matchups but just this one I want your take:

At 155:

Conor -250
Ferguson +200

Conor, Ferg, or pass?

Yeah like cs said we'll see what we see from Conor in the Diaz fight, still a bit of unknown mystique about him, but right now i'd bet Conor to KO him early. Would be interesting to see how Ferg deals with getting mindfucked though. Based off his interview before Barboza where he called McGregor out, he'd engage in shit talk and be in for a mental raping and it would be interesting to see how he counters that.

 

[mkess101]

Yeah like cs said we'll see what we see from Conor in the Diaz fight, still a bit of unknown mystique about him, but right now i'd bet Conor to KO him early. Would be interesting to see how Ferg deals with getting mindfucked though. Based off his interview before Barboza where he called McGregor out, he'd engage in shit talk and be in for a mental raping and it would be interesting to see how he counters that.

Good point. Ferg seems like a guy who'd get into it. Different guys react differently to it once the bell rings. I could see Ferg getting owned in the verbal and psychological warfare leading up to the fight but not giving a f on fight night. Maybe.

Imo the way to deal with Conor's psychological warfare is to be complimentary of him in discussing the fight. Talk about what he does well, the attention he's brought to the sport, etc. You can still say you are going to beat his ass but do it in the context of "It will be a great win for me, the guy is obviously really good..." Smile a lot, act like it's the most fun thing in the world to you (even if it isn't) to be doing the press tours and having all the attention that a Conor fight brings. Give him no ammo. Easier said than done. You need the right personality (or to be a great actor that can fake it over a period of time) to do it. Guys with that personality? Bendo but he's gone. The elite Brazilians have too much pride to do it (evidence being Aldo and RDA). Not sure who else.

 

[rille31]

ksw main card up on some euro bookies willhill, betsafe, unibet

 

[Bless]

Just looked where they offer the best odds for each fight of the KSW Main card. Someone spotting some value in these?

Tomasz Narkun -278 (1.36) WH
Cassio Barbosa de Oliveira +250 (3.50) U

Karol Bedorf -500 (1.20) WH
James McSweeney +333 (4.33) WH

Artur Sowinski +110 (2.10) WH
Fabiano Silva da Conceicao -125 (1.80) BS

Aslambek Saidov -150 (1.67) WH
Yasubey Enomoto +125 (2.25) U

Maciej Jewtuszko -222 (1.45) BS
Krzysztof Kulak +175 (2.75) U

 

[rille31]

Just looked where they offer the best odds for each fight of the KSW Main card. Someone spotting some value in these?

Tomasz Narkun -278 (1.36) WH
Cassio Barbosa de Oliveira +250 (3.50) U

Karol Bedorf -500 (1.20) WH
James McSweeney +333 (4.33) WH

Artur Sowinski +110 (2.10) WH
Fabiano Silva da Conceicao -125 (1.80) BS

Aslambek Saidov -150 (1.67) WH
Yasubey Enomoto +125 (2.25) U

Maciej Jewtuszko -222 (1.45) BS
Krzysztof Kulak +175 (2.75) U

like aslambek @ 1.67

those polish ruskis are beasts

sowinski looked good in his last fight when he won the belt, taking the polish champion @ plus money is usually a good idea when it comes to ksw, just wiki cappin his opponent but he does look good on paper so would propably go small on him

 

[Joseph Budden]

Just looked where they offer the best odds for each fight of the KSW Main card. Someone spotting some value in these?

Tomasz Narkun -278 (1.36) WH
Cassio Barbosa de Oliveira +250 (3.50) U

Karol Bedorf -500 (1.20) WH
James McSweeney +333 (4.33) WH

Artur Sowinski +110 (2.10) WH
Fabiano Silva da Conceicao -125 (1.80) BS

Aslambek Saidov -150 (1.67) WH
Yasubey Enomoto +125 (2.25) U

Maciej Jewtuszko -222 (1.45) BS
Krzysztof Kulak +175 (2.75) U

Parlay value in Narkun for sure. Also like a stab on Enomoto