General MMA discussion and future lines - March 2016

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Never thought i would see the day you so eagerly fade mystic mac ;)

I put a few units on diaz already at 155 lbs. I doubt they fight at 170 again as they already went down that road.
So much talk of it happening at 170 has me scared to hit either line right now considering, if I read the lingo right, hitting the wrong line will tie up money til the end of the year

Happy to fade my 2nd favorite fighter with my 1st favorite fighter :D
 
Omg gonna fucking hammer Nate's line. Gonna wait for them to make the fight official though so I know what weight its at.

Did the Diaz fight lower your opinion of McGoat in general or you just think it's a bad style match for him? For example would you still favour McGoat over RDA?
 
Did the Diaz fight lower your opinion of McGoat in general or you just think it's a bad style match for him? For example would you still favour McGoat over RDA?
I knew it was potentially a very bad match up for Conor, posted a lot of my thoughts why before it took place. I didn't take Nate lightly at all, and was downright blown away by the amount of people who would post Conor by KO was a lock.

Its hard to predict RDA vs Conor for me and the lines would sway me a lot on which way i'd go. While i'm confident RDA gets eaten up on the feet in the center of the cage, Conor showed vs Diaz for the first time he can be backed up to the fence in a clinch and even though he escaped he used a very basic move getting the single collar tie and turning the angle. I don't think that would work against RDA. I would also be much more hesitant to bet Conor after Nate scored a takedown. That x guard sweep might work on RDA, but I wouldn't wanna bank on him pulling shit like that off for 5 rds, especially when Chad held him down. As much as I love Conor, and would bet him as a dog, now that I think about it i'd probably lean RDA in making a prediction.

My opinion of Conor hasn't lowered. Maybe i'm the only one, but just wanna throw out there that I feel like Conor having soooo much hype has desensitized people to his skills in the aftermath of this. Props to Nate, he had no camp and got the job done, but if we're being objective there is a very good chance Conor let everything get to head and it was a major factor in his loss. Dude went balls to the wall from the start in that fight (even though his cardio needs to be better either way), and when his coach is saying shit like he can KO Aldo in under 60 seconds and then he does, i'm sure there is a bit of shock to hitting Diaz with your best blows multiple times and he isn't even fazed minus the cut on the eye. I think Conor by decision will be a very interesting line in this rematch that could have a MUCH higher percentage of happening than the odds will indicate.
 
More odds for UFC 198 on 5d

Hit these

Shogun o2.5 -175
Silva o2.5 +100
Cyborg u1.5 -215
 
Hit Nate at 155 for a couple units at +110. Just a guess on the weight it happens at. I'm ok tying up the $. Will be betting nate regardless
 
There are always 4 outcomes to every fight. Fighter A by finish or dec, Fighter B by finish or dec (25% chance of winning by that theory). When the odds payout a ton and the outcome is 'reasonable' meaning you can play out the scenario, then I think it's worth betting.
  • JDS dec +620
  • Ferguson dec +791
  • Cejudo dec +560
Rothwell has chin for days. JDS went 5 rounds boxing with Stipe who also had a big chin, so why not? Both parties have an incredible chin. Although it's easier to speculate where Junior's threshold is at these days.

Tony is a wrestler too don't forget that and he sets a pace from the getgo and if Khabib manages to wrestle him early on, Khabib may tire out and I can see a scenario with Tony picking it up the later rounds. You might see a situation where a judge gives Tony the nod if he's the one trying to end the fight rather than contain someone ala Robbie/Hendricks 2.

Demetrious faces a guy who's not afraid of his wrestling. Cejudo might not be that good from what we've seen and I honestly don't like him either, but it's a different type of match up we're seeing here. Cejudo wants to make it dirty in the clinch and he wants to pressure and move forward a judge can see that as aggression.

Should Khabib or Demetrious win, it'll most likely be by decision. 25 minutes is a long time and when you leave it in the hands of the judges, it's anyone's game. We can definitely use ambiguous judging as a criteria for capping fights especially if the odds are worth your while.

Shit, if you're a believer of Cormier you can throw his decision line up there too sitting at +450.
 
thoughts on the cummings/nogueira line? hope its not crazy, im gonna be on pat here i think rogerio is done
 
More odds for UFC 198 on 5d

Hit these

Shogun o2.5 -175
Silva o2.5 +100
Cyborg u1.5 -215

jealous in particular of the cyborg under. kalikas caught me napping (caught me away from pc / etc for a few hours)

the strength/speed/athleticism edge for her is ridiculous here. smith doesn't stand a chance IMO.

unsure on the other two new fights.. i thought anderson would be bigger favorite but idk what to do
 
Anyone else getting nervous about 5d?

I will probably move some money over to BM. I saw another article from costa rica. I was around when this shit happened to the poker sites and you can end up getting stung.
 
Anyone else getting nervous about 5d?

I will probably move some money over to BM. I saw another article from costa rica. I was around when this shit happened to the poker sites and you can end up getting stung.

This is why I refuse to keep a lot of $ in any online account. If they get shut down I'll be out some cash but nothing earth shattering.

I hope this stuff with 5d blows over. Guess we'll find out...
 
Anyone else getting nervous about 5d?

I will probably move some money over to BM. I saw another article from costa rica. I was around when this shit happened to the poker sites and you can end up getting stung.
I will cry if 5D ever gets shut down. Not just cause of money, but because it's soo good for mma gambling
 
euro

Igor Pokrajac - Jan Błachowicz 3.20-1.35
over 2.5 2.20-1.60
 
Ces1f1_WAAAha40.jpg:large
 
I knew it was potentially a very bad match up for Conor, posted a lot of my thoughts why before it took place. I didn't take Nate lightly at all, and was downright blown away by the amount of people who would post Conor by KO was a lock.

Its hard to predict RDA vs Conor for me and the lines would sway me a lot on which way i'd go. While i'm confident RDA gets eaten up on the feet in the center of the cage, Conor showed vs Diaz for the first time he can be backed up to the fence in a clinch and even though he escaped he used a very basic move getting the single collar tie and turning the angle. I don't think that would work against RDA. I would also be much more hesitant to bet Conor after Nate scored a takedown. That x guard sweep might work on RDA, but I wouldn't wanna bank on him pulling shit like that off for 5 rds, especially when Chad held him down. As much as I love Conor, and would bet him as a dog, now that I think about it i'd probably lean RDA in making a prediction.

My opinion of Conor hasn't lowered. Maybe i'm the only one, but just wanna throw out there that I feel like Conor having soooo much hype has desensitized people to his skills in the aftermath of this. Props to Nate, he had no camp and got the job done, but if we're being objective there is a very good chance Conor let everything get to head and it was a major factor in his loss. Dude went balls to the wall from the start in that fight (even though his cardio needs to be better either way), and when his coach is saying shit like he can KO Aldo in under 60 seconds and then he does, i'm sure there is a bit of shock to hitting Diaz with your best blows multiple times and he isn't even fazed minus the cut on the eye. I think Conor by decision will be a very interesting line in this rematch that could have a MUCH higher percentage of happening than the odds will indicate.

Budden, you definetly provide good insight on fights, but to now say that you knew Diaz was potentially a bad matchup - yet you bet McGregor as a huge favorite?
and you had said that you were going to hammer McGregor v Dos Anjos at -150. now you say youd lean to Dos Anjos - obviously your opinion on McGregor has changed dramatically since the Diaz fight, no?
hey I get changing opinions - you get new info on a fighter by seeinh gow he responds to different style matchups. but theres no way you couldve thought Diaz was a bad matchuo yet bet on McGregor
 
Budden, you definetly provide good insight on fights, but to now say that you knew Diaz was potentially a bad matchup - yet you bet McGregor as a huge favorite?
and you had said that you were going to hammer McGregor v Dos Anjos at -150. now you say youd lean to Dos Anjos - obviously your opinion on McGregor has changed dramatically since the Diaz fight, no?
hey I get changing opinions - you get new info on a fighter by seeinh gow he responds to different style matchups. but theres no way you couldve thought Diaz was a bad matchuo yet bet on McGregor
I didn't hammer him as huge favorite lol when he opened at -280 it was too good to pass up value wise so I parlayed it with the over in the Tate fight. I knew that line would sky rocket and I'm degenerate as hell, I have action on every fight. I'm always vocal with my opinions, right or wrong, so it wouldn't be hard to find that thread and see all the reasonings I thought Nate was potentially one of the worst matchups for Conor. I flat out stated I expected nothing less than a competitive fight. Conor's best asset has been his reach and playing with ranges, and Nate is longer, does the same thing, and has never been out struck.

As you can tell by my post you quoted, I'd be torn on Conor vs RDA now for the reasons stated. I might have lucked out cause I definitely was gonna hammer Conor, but who knows, it's a completely different fight and somehow questions still linger to me regarding just how good Conor is.
 
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