General MMA discussion and future lines - March 2016

[Joseph Budden]

I was on the opposite side of literally person you named lol

EDIT except Holly

 

[mkess101]

There are some lines with insane value out there right now imo. I just added to Jacare itd at -110, already had some on it at -103. It's just gonna keep moving that way imo. I honestly cap it at -200 or maybe even -250. Ask yourself these two questions:

Do you think Vitor can stop Jacare from taking him down, even if Jacare doesn't set up the takedown? My answer is no freaking way.

Do you think Vitor can survive on the mat with Jacare for more than a minute or two? Again, no way after watching what Weidman did to him there.

I feel like this line is amazing.

Also, Mighty Mouse UD is +160. Is there anyone who thinks that this isn't the result at least half the time in this fight? I understand Cejudo's wrestling creds, but what has he ever shown inside the cage that would make anyone think he can hang with MM? That said, it's also more likely than not that that it's a 5 round clinic. Half of MM's 5 rounders have gone the distance, and in 2 of the 4 he's finished it was extremely late (one with 1 second to go in the fight). Also, 3 of the 4 stoppages were by sub and Cejudo should have the wrestling to at least keep it standing and not get taken down. (He'll be outclassed standing, but he shouldn't end up on his back). Odds of fight going the distance right now are -170. So the books as of now think it's way more likely than not it goes the distance, and I agree. And if it does go all 5, does anyone really see it not being a lopsided dec for MM? I'd personally cap MM via UD somewere in the -125 to +100 range. It's +160.

I just put a parlay together of these two plus Maia ML.

Jacare itd+Mighty Mouse UD+Maia pays +542. I think this parlay hits maybe 40%-45% of the time.

 

[EzFlyer]

Do you think Vitor can survive on the mat with Jacare for more than a minute or two?

If he's gassed? No

If he's fresh? Absolutely he could survive a couple minutes

 

[Joseph Budden]

There are some lines with insane value out there right now imo. I just added to Jacare itd at -110, already had some on it at -103. It's just gonna keep moving that way imo. I honestly cap it at -200 or maybe even -250. Ask yourself these two questions:

Do you think Vitor can stop Jacare from taking him down, even if Jacare doesn't set up the takedown? My answer is no freaking way.

Do you think Vitor can survive on the mat with Jacare for more than a minute or two? Again, no way after watching what Weidman did to him there.

I feel like this line is amazing.

Also, Mighty Mouse UD is +160. Is there anyone who thinks that this isn't the result at least half the time in this fight? I understand Cejudo's wrestling creds, but what has he ever shown inside the cage that would make anyone think he can hang with MM? That said, it's also more likely than not that that it's a 5 round clinic. Half of MM's 5 rounders have gone the distance, and in 2 of the 4 he's finished it was extremely late (one with 1 second to go in the fight). Also, 3 of the 4 stoppages were by sub and Cejudo should have the wrestling to at least keep it standing and not get taken down. (He'll be outclassed standing, but he shouldn't end up on his back). Odds of fight going the distance right now are -170. So the books as of now think it's way more likely than not it goes the distance, and I agree. And if it does go all 5, does anyone really see it not being a lopsided dec for MM? I'd personally cap MM via UD somewere in the -125 to +100 range. It's +160.

I just put a parlay together of these two plus Maia ML.

Jacare itd+Mighty Mouse UD+Maia pays +542. I think this parlay hits maybe 40%-45% of the time.

Been thinking of setting up a long term round robin with some of these amazing lines. Other great ones at + odds include Jones by unan dec and rockhold itd and Dariush by dec. lots of value to be found on future props

 

[LEMONZEST]

Mike,

Jacare itd+Mighty Mouse UD+Maia pays +542

I tailed you on this and also individually bet Jacare itd and MM UD. I do have some concnerns on these bets tho. I see Jacare and VItor as similar in that they are both old fighters with gas tank problems and probably only good in r1.

I am a little concerned about Vitor as he does still have killer instinct and could see him KOing Jacare. Also I think if they do get into a grind and gas this fight will easily float to a decision.

I have already stated my concerns about betting UD. I think in reality MM will fight the right fight that is a UD I just don't trust the judges to all get it right.

I don't have any concerns about Maia, I think he gets the w easily.

Anyway BOL to us

 

[mkess101]

If he's gassed? No

If he's fresh? Absolutely he could survive a couple minutes

It was pretty early when Weidman took him down, passed guard easily, then wrecked him right? Weidman has better gnp than Jacare but he's not the grappler that Jacare is. Maybe Vitoria could last a couple minutes if fresh but not much longer imo.

 

[mkess101]

Mike,

Jacare itd+Mighty Mouse UD+Maia pays +542

I tailed you on this and also individually bet Jacare itd and MM UD. I do have some concnerns on these bets tho. I see Jacare and VItor as similar in that they are both old fighters with gas tank problems and probably only good in r1.

I am a little concerned about Vitor as he does still have killer instinct and could see him KOing Jacare. Also I think if they do get into a grind and gas this fight will easily float to a decision.

I have already stated my concerns about betting UD. I think in reality MM will fight the right fight that is a UD I just don't trust the judges to all get it right.

I don't have any concerns about Maia, I think he gets the w easily.

Anyway BOL to us

Wasn't that long ago (not gonna look it up but late '14 maybe?) that Jacare ground out Mousasi and subbed him late. I think post TRT Vitor has a more suspect gas tank by far and if he ends up on his back (extremely likely) it's gonna be Vitor who gasses early. I don't think Jacare will mess with him standing.

Watching Cejudo, I just haven't seen anything from him that makes me think he will even win a round vs MM. He's good enough to survive 25 minutes yeah, but not much more than that. Of course there's the rare times when guys make huge leaps and surprise everyone (TJ vs Barao best example) but I really like this line. You can play it more conservatively and just bet dec but given I don't think Cejudo even wins a round I'm ok going with the higher payout for UD and believing Henry no way gets 3 rds on any judges card in this fight.

 

[EzFlyer]

It was pretty early when Weidman took him down, passed guard easily, then wrecked him right? Weidman has better gnp than Jacare but he's not the grappler that Jacare is. Maybe Vitoria could last a couple minutes if fresh but not much longer imo.

as incredibly pathetic as it is.. he was gased already vs weidman, blew his wad

 

[LEMONZEST]

One upcoming fight I am eyeing is Ruslan Magomedov v. Gonzaga.

I am hoping I can get a good price on Ruslan ML. Even if his ML is juiced I love his decision prop. Ruslan won 6 decisions in a row... he is the Mayweather of MMA

 

[Joseph Budden]

One upcoming fight I am eyeing is Ruslan Magomedov v. Gonzaga.

I am hoping I can get a good price on Ruslan ML. Even if his ML is juiced I love his decision prop. Ruslan won 6 decisions in a row... he is the Mayweather of MMA

Definitely expecting Ruslan to be a major favorite

 

[cs02132]

I hope Cruz isn't too juiced against urihjah. Faber can't beat him.. This is like his 4th title shot right ??

I like faber but he's on the decline and even if he wasn't I see Cruz winning

 

[EzFlyer]

I hope Cruz isn't too juiced against urihjah. Faber can't beat him.. This is like his 4th title shot right ??

I like faber but he's on the decline and even if he wasn't I see Cruz winning

faber? more than 4, he's had at least 5 titleshots under zuffa and lost them all

that said, i wasn't 100% positive judges would agree last time (and i had my biggest bet of the year on cruz over him that year)

faber has fallen off the pace a bit, tho. the way he gassed last fight.. when's faber ever gassed...

 

[Jae Gibbz]

4.16u on MM/Cejudo o3.0 at -208. This will for sure be steeper by fight time. Probably around -300 or more. o4.5 and fight DEC are -175 and -170, respectively. Insane value on o3.0

 

[rille31]

just catched up with my favourite freakshow ksw

went 5-0 with the singles and also hit a nice round robin with 3 fighters and a 5 team parlay @ +730 (4 fav, 1 dog)

 

[EzFlyer]

UFC 198 - Heavyweight 5 rounds - Arena da Baixada - Curitiba, Brazil - PPV
Sat 5/14 1001 Stipe Miocic +175 o2½ -150
11:59PM 1002 Fabricio Werdum -225 u2½ +110

thoughts?

 

[Joseph Budden]

UFC 198 - Heavyweight 5 rounds - Arena da Baixada - Curitiba, Brazil - PPV
Sat 5/14 1001 Stipe Miocic +175 o2½ -150
11:59PM 1002 Fabricio Werdum -225 u2½ +110

thoughts?

The more I think about this fight the more I think livebetting is the best option. Will stab Werdum by sub and do that

 

[mkess101]

UFC 198 - Heavyweight 5 rounds - Arena da Baixada - Curitiba, Brazil - PPV
Sat 5/14 1001 Stipe Miocic +175 o2½ -150
11:59PM 1002 Fabricio Werdum -225 u2½ +110

thoughts?

Like Werdum but hoped for -180 or so. Maybe a little value still at -225 but I think that's getting close to where I'd cap him. Maybe in the -250 to -275 range.

 

[mkess101]

as incredibly pathetic as it is.. he was gased already vs weidman, blew his wad

True. That said, I gotta believe getting taken down by Jacare and having to try to fend off him advancing position and locking in a sub is about as tiring a thing as there can be in the Octagon. If post TRT Vitor blew his wad and gassed in round 1 throwing bombs at Weidman, I have a very hard time seeing him not completely gassing if (when) Jacare takes him down and starts doing work.

 

[mkess101]

4.16u on MM/Cejudo o3.0 at -208. This will for sure be steeper by fight time. Probably around -300 or more. o4.5 and fight DEC are -175 and -170, respectively. Insane value on o3.0

Agree. I had to take it at -225 but I still like it a lot. Will probably be able to freeroll it if I want down the road but if not I'm fine with this price for sure.

I also hit MM wins in rd 5 at +2500. He's shown an ability to finish fights very late (2 5th round finishes in his last 8 fights). I could see Cejudo getting desperate knowing he's way behind on the cards and doing something foolish that gets him tapped in the 5th. And at this price, gotta take a little stab.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Agree. I had to take it at -225 but I still like it a lot. Will probably be able to freeroll it if I want down the road but if not I'm fine with this price for sure.

I also hit MM wins in rd 5 at +2500. He's shown an ability to finish fights very late (2 5th round finishes in his last 8 fights). I could see Cejudo getting desperate knowing he's way behind on the cards and doing something foolish that gets him tapped in the 5th. And at this price, gotta take a little stab.

Yeah, that's pretty good too