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General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - January, 2019

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by 2bet, Jan 1, 2019.

  1. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Injuries and damage taken are one of the few things I can see in favour of Kelvin. I don't see how he wins outside of a KO in the first 1-3 rounds and thats a seriously tough challenge, wouldn't even surprise me if Whittaker goes full GSP and just wrestle fucks him all fight, he clearly has great wrestling he's just only used it defensively for the most part as he's faced nothing but strong grapplers in his last 5 fights.
     
  2. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    I miss seeing Israel Adesanye at better than -200 odds...
    Was hoping he’d maybe weasel in this one at -300 -350 or so
     
  3. piglord Black Belt

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    i managed to get him at -350 to close a parlay with petr yan, very happy about it.
     
  4. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    Your the bookie guy right? Can u recommend good sites for an Amerifag? I don’t like bovada for mma
     
  5. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    The only questionmark for me is: is Kelvin gonna use heavy legkick approach in this fight? Jordan, I spent a lot of time watching tape on Robert through the years and he is really the ultimate fighter - he just doesn't have holes that current MWs can exploit. He is amazing almost everywhere. He is fast, has hard punches, he is flexible but strong, good grappling and wrestling, can fight backing up and on the front foot... The one thing that he can't do very well is defending the legkick. maybe because of his lean forward, I don't know, but he is very succeptible for these. Gastelum has legkicks in his arsenal. I just wonder if he or his coaches saw that in Robert and if they gonna try to exploit that. If Robert can't move freely he is half the fighter he is normally, and even then he is very good, but he will become beatable. And expecially over 5 rounds, investing in legkicks will be huge.

    My personal opinion is that Gastelum is not very cerebral or even a hard working type fighter and we won't see him throwing more legkicks here than he normally does. But I don't know for sure of course, he can surprise me.
     
  6. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    I'm guessing it partly comes from his karate background and that's why he's open to it. I think Kelvin could invest in them but Roberts fight IQ is high enough to counter them pretty easily, either shooting takedowns off them, teep kicking like he did with Romero or something else. That's definitely a solid path to victory for Kelvin though especially if he goes to the calf early then goes hard while he's lost his mobility.
     
  7. 2bet Green Belt

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    lots of UFC events (20!) to bet on in the first half of 2019 :)



    EDIT: that's two more than last year
     
  8. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    15 events in a row with just 1 single weekend with a break is a wonderful start to the year.
    Just gotta endure 18 horrible dark days before we're there
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2019
  9. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    Heh, I like breaks. Researching fights and making bets is fun, but after a while, the grind becomes rather overwhelming.
     
  10. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    A ways to go yet but is anyone else warming up to hitting a 4:1 Fedor? Thought I heard somewhere that Bader said he hadn't even taken 1 shot in the whole grand prix. Fedor may be a shell but his power hasn't gone anywhere.
     
  11. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Very tempted too. Bader's chin was always a big weakness and Fedor still hits hard af with decent defensive grappling.
     
  12. ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    Lawler +255 seems insane to me. Askren hasn't fought elite competition, ever. Robbie is certainly on his way out and I wouldn't call him "elite" anymore, but he's a proven UFC vet fighting a guy whose been decisioning cans at an inferior organization.
     
  13. burge13 Purple Belt

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    End of year title holder odds out but nothing really stands out to me. Best i can come up with is Jones surely leaves 205 so that division should be open after that, Blachowicz +1400, Anderson +2000, OSP +3300?
    Volkanovski +850 might be worth a go? Holloway at 155 +500 or Poirer +850
     
  14. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    Lawler +255 is good value, but the reasoning is absolutely silly.

    The fact that you claim Askren has been "decisioning cans" shows you have very little, if any knowledge of his career, and is the kind of nonsense I would expect from the General MMA subforum, not this one.

    Of Askren's last 9 fights, stretching back all the way to June 2013, only 1 has gone to decision. The other 7 were stoppage victories and 1 was an early no contest.

    The one decision victory was against Nikolay Aleksakhin, a very good, very strong, and enormous welterweight (looking an entire weight class bigger than Askren) who is significantly better than at least half of the UFC's welterweight roster. And Askren dominated him.

    And while they had yet to hit their primes, there is something to be said for Askren dominating young versions of Douglas Lima (top 5 welterweight), Koreshkov (at least top 12), and Lyman Good (top 20) when he himself hadn't evolved his MMA game.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2019
  15. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    I would pass on these. It's hard enough predicting fights. Here, you're asked to predict the managerial bullshit of WME-era UFC as well as inevitable injuries, booking headaches, etc.
     
  16. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Are there odds on JDS?
     
  17. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Degens gonna degen bro.
     
  18. burge13 Purple Belt

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    +1700
     
  19. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Where are you getting these? Asking for a friend......
     
  20. burge13 Purple Belt

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    I don't think this is that degen. You can map out what will likely happen with a win/loss for fighters and we all follow it enough to account for WME idiotic decisions. I've never bet this market before but I think value can be found
     

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