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General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - January, 2019

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by 2bet, Jan 1, 2019.

  1. burge13 Purple Belt

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    Sportsbet.com.au - Aussie book owned by Paddy Power (so i guess UK bettors will have these odds available)
     
  2. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Thanks. @piglord I glanced but couldn't find them but does ohmbet offer these?

    I agree they're only semi-degen. Someone on here had the 'Jon Jones to be champ in 2018' prop iirc. I'm sure he's enjoying his new yacht, even in spite of all their inherent headaches.
     
  3. ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    I’ll be real and admit I 100% wikicapped Askren and saw that he had more decision wins than any other method. I don’t think you can rank Lima and Good as high as you did though.
     
  4. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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  5. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Cool fight, gotta lean Cody assuming he fights smart. Pedro as a significant dog could be a great bet.
     
  6. trident Water Belt

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    Sure this has been asked millions of times...... but for US bettors, what's the best online bookie for no hassle payouts? Not looking for most props or early lines, just who is a no fuss payout site?
     
  7. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    Gastelum has crazy fast hands and good power behind. He is a live dog against anyone at MW just because he can catch anybody.
    I still favor Whittaker but would not be surprised if Kelvin gets the KO. Said that.. I think that is his only path to victory.
     
  8. grappler4200 Yellow Belt

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    Jon Jones -500 vs Anthony Smith. Anybody else salivating over this. Hoping line stays close to this, but wouldn't be surprised to see it get to -1000
     
  9. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    I was super happy I got him at +200 thinking it was a stupid opener. I assume the bettors are even more stupid.

    I think it is closer to a 50/50 fight and even might favor Robbie a little bit.
     
  10. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    I love Anthony Smith. Nice tattoos, friendly fella. But he is so overmatched here it's not even real. He doesn't have the motor Jones have. No way he can match Jones' tempo for more than a round. He will be totally toasted after three rounds with Jones IMO. I would like to see that Jones by sub prop. Anthony is leaving too huge oppenings on the ground for a guy like Jones to not to take advantage of. For sure Jones finishes him. It could be a KO, but I'm leaning submission for now. Yeah, he didin't finish OSP, but OSP is not Smith. Whole different sets of problems and it was not the original opponent.

    Off the topic, but I think Oezdemir was pure shit on his feet in their fight. The only reason Smith didn't just flat out owned him there and just win by decision in a stand up fight, is that Smith has finite amout of gas, he has to take his breaks inbetween action otherwise he would burn his muscles. I don't know what the issue is, but he doesn't seem fit to go the distance... And before you guys say anything - yeah, I know Smith is not a Badr Hari here, he was making a lot of mistakes in that fight standing up, but was obvious that Smith had idea what to do, he tried to control the distance, put a jab out there and mix up his punches and kicks. His issues stemmed more from his poor conditioning and lack of dynamism I think, more than a lack of technique or preparation for the opponent. If Anthony Smith had Thiago Santos' athleticism he would've won that fight by KO or dominant decision. I don't care how tough is Volkan.
     
  11. grappler4200 Yellow Belt

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    100%, I had Smith against volkan and it played out pretty much how I expected except Smith gassed much worse than I expected. He was so close to going down himself in round three, it was a battle of attrition that he had a slight edge over oz. Against JJ there's no chance. He doesn't have the power to even land a lucky shot against Jon at that level of fatigue. If he tries to conserve again Jon will pour it on and it's over. I don't know if the sub line will have much value over Jones itd. Think they are both likely but would say higher chance of ko/too. As he did vs Gus, Jones looks to punch first when he gains a dominant position over searching for the sub. Obviously if it's there he will take it, but not many guys last long enough to even give him the opportunity.
     
  12. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Smith Sub5. It is known. Hush.
     
  13. Mcgregorian Purple Belt

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    Two huge bets I will be making this year:

    JJ to destroy Anthony Smith

    Andrade to destroy Rose

    Whatever the odds are I am throwing every dollar I can find onto them....
     
  14. grappler4200 Yellow Belt

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    What's the line on that hahah
     
  15. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    +120 Rose
    - 150 Jessica
     
  16. ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    Andrade +110 on 5dimes right now. Locked my max bet in now while the gettin’s good. My guess is she closes -200ish or close to it.
     
  17. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    I really don't understand the hype around Andrade. Her striking is technically poor, but she has a big power advantage thanks to the anabolics. She is also short and slow, a bad combination. Now, thanks to a victory against a very mediocre fighter in Karolina K., some people think she is a lock against the far longer, taller, more technical, and faster Rose?!

    I'll very happily be betting Rose at + odds at some point.
     
  18. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Agree. I thought there was a night and day difference in Thug Rose's striking from the Waterson fight to JJ 1. Really starting to master that Whitman style. Even Pat Barry was praising her in the embedded videos on how much her technique has changed in a short amount of time. Also gotta think Rose has been practicing get ups and limp legging out of single legs. I like Rose in this matchup as well. Hoping the line widens more and will add a sprinkle on Rose Sub. She got one of the best back takes at 115.
     
  19. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Joanna has outstanding TDD and defensive wrestling and can stay composed and build momentum as the fight goes on. Rose doesn't like pressure, doesn't have great wrestling and noticeably gets weaker as fights go on, Karolina (who really isn't mediocre her clinch and toughness is excellent plus she savaged Rose) and Esparza broke her inside 3 rounds pushing forward and taking the fight to her which Andrade is certain too. Pretty sure Andrade even has higher level BJJ too. Rose may have better fundamental striking but so does Karolina, Tecia, Gadelha, Joanna Calderwood and Karolina etc. who still all got hammered, at best winning a competitive first round.

    Rose sub could be a decent line but this seems like a pretty awful match up for her. She's going to have to pretty much replicate Joanna's whole gameplan for 25 minutes despite being significantly weaker in multiple key areas. Not to mention being in Brazil will likely screw with Rose a lot, she managed to block out 1 Joanna but thousands of Brazils screaming she's going to die while she gets marched down by Andrade seems like a pretty awful scenario for her.
     
  20. piglord Black Belt

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  21. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    You do realize that Rose is a better wrestler than Joanna and took her down in their rematch, right? I'm also not sure about Joanna's takedown defense being so "outstanding" when Valentina took her down at will from the clinch.

    The "stay composed and build momentum" line is narrative/hype more than a quantifiable skill.

    If you want to make a big bet on Andrade, then go for it. But spare us this dishonest silliness.

    Karolina did not "savage" Rose, and Roses's loss to Karolina (nevermind when she was 22 to Esparza) is no more relevant than Andrade's miserable losses to Reneau and Pennington.

    By itself, this is merely an angle I disagree with. There is no way to tell how a fighter will react to hatred, and I'm sure plenty of people thought Rose was scared half to death by the "Boogie Woman", which didn't turn out so well for the latter.

    But in context, this is absolutely hilarious. You're the same guy who discounted Max Holloway's serious medical/brain issues that required a trip to the emergency room and caused him to pull out of a major event. Yet, the prospect of a fighter being spooked by a hostile crowd is a major point to why she will lose?! Sure, there is a small possibility that's correct, but such a blatant lack of consistency in approach makes it hard to take any of your post seriously.

    Lastly,

    All the fighters you named, even the second mention of Karolina (I'm assuming an improved, cyborg version of the original), have technically awful striking I wouldn't call any better than Andrade's. Rose is a level or two higher than all of them in that regard.
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2019
  22. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Remember that breakdown you did saying how much better Chook was to Eye and dropped 3U on her decision line after I favoured her as well?

    Rose landed one last minute takedown and Joanna got right back up lmao. Rose is no way a better defensive wrestler the statistics speak for themselves on this one Joanna's TDD is still 80% across while Rose is at 45%. Shevchenko's clinch takedowns are world class and worked even better against fighters like Holm and Pena yet Joanna stuffed 9 out of 14 attempts. If you think Rose is anything close to Shevchenko's level your crazy and using that as a way of acting like Joanna is inferior is just nonsense. The way Joanna ran through Esparza who 3 months prior dominated Rose. Nor have we actually seen any evidence of Rose improving as she's avoided match ups with any of the divisions strong grapplers like Gadelha, Esparza, Andrade all of which Joanna beat comfortably while instead Rose was getting takendown by Michelle Waterson.

    Karolina won the Rose fight easily, after the first her corner told her to just go to the clinch and yeah, it was pretty brutal watching her hammer her with knees on the way to a clear 29-28. There's a reason it got fight of the night and it wasn't because Karolina was gentle with her.

    I love how you are taking this so personally too trying to discredit anything I say. I wasn't concerned over Holloways health as it was pretty damn easy to look at all the interviews and see he was absolutely fine compared back at 226. Thats not inconsistently disregarding factors thats basic analysis. Rose is mentally weak we've seen it countless times, as soon as Joanna gained momentum she looked on her way to losing a decision it was her corner team that was great psyching her up to actually make it a competitive 5th round. The fact she had to do all that focus work to not get psyched out vs Joanna says a lot, the way she reacted to the bus incident, the way she fades under pressure in fights. It's significant and a recurring thing, unlike something like Holloway being ill before one fight then being fine after.

    Rose's losses are far more significant than Andrade's, it shows a pattern of her not doing well under pressure that was still evident in her last fight while in comparison Andrade was submitted by two solid grapplers 2 weight classes higher. Even then Andrade losses are still relevant as it shows a clear hole in her submission defence hence I said Rose by sub could be a bet.

    Not sure why you are so in favour of Rose or triggered by my response but I think your way off. She's an overall average fighter that simply learnt to box but still has multiple glaring recurring weaknesses a fighter like Andrade (who I really don't like btw so this isn't me talking as a biased fan) is perfect to exploit. I mean your bias is just so glaringly ridiculous Karolina and Tecia both outstruck Rose relatively recently yet they are technically terrible and Rose is great striking? How delusional can you get? Is this Pat Barry's account or something?
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2019

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