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General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - January, 2019

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by 2bet, Jan 1, 2019.

  1. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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  2. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Good fight for Yan, a striker that good and they give him a guy with nothing but a straight left. Glad to see him fighting so soon though.
     
  3. burge13 Purple Belt

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    Dodson can make any fight pretty boring these days. Hopefully Yan brings out the savage in Dodson as we know Yan won't try a disengage and avoid the fight
     
  4. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    What about it? The match went almost exactly as I predicted minus Chookagian being slightly worse than previous matches, instead of slightly better. I personally had the decision for Chookagian, as did half the media scoring it, but oh well.

    Also, weren't you the one arguing Eye would somehow outwrestle and consistently take Chookagian down, which I dismissed as very unlikely?

    If so, it's hilarious you're bringing this fight back up, as it reflects very poorly on your own analysis, not mine.

    I don't know what's funnier; blindly applying TDD percentages as if they're meaningful across wildly different opponents, stages of develoment, and fighting styles, or calling Shevchenko's judo (not "clinch takedowns") "world-class".

    Speaking of which, you used TDD percentages to argue that Chookagian would get taken down repeatedly by Eye, too. How did that work out?

    Yeah, because an interview is a great way to diagnose someone's underlying medical conditions?

    This is downright comical.

    Rose does worse at some point of the fight = "She is mentally weak!"
    Rose comes back to win said fight= "Uh....it's because of her corner! Has nothing to do with her whatsoever!"

    Notice too how wildly inconsistent this nebulous standard is. To use an example of Valentina Shevchenko, she lost the last 5th round to Nunes in the rematch, and faded slightly in the 4th and 5th rounds against the very same Joanna J. Yet, no one accuses her of being "mentally weak".

    Why, because you want to feel better about your bet?

    When you're wildly confident about a fight, but provide poor analysis, AND have a history of your bold claims being wrong, expect someone to eventually call you out.

    Is this a copy and paste about why Joanna will beat Rose in 2017?
     
  5. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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  6. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    You really don't like me do you? Bold claims being wrong? enlighten me because both times you have tried to call me out with Jessica Eye and Holloway I have been correct so is this you going for third time lucky?

    You sit there picking at terminology of things like judo vs clinch takedowns when it just shows your understanding and experience in different styles is so poor, those trips and throws etc. are a huge part of Muay Thai the fact you think that all is just judo is pretty terrible.

    I never once said Eye would solely outgrapple Chook to victory but I did say it was a factor in her favour and I do not see how you can criticise that at all. Regardless of her successes there she did attempt shots and end up winning the fight regardless off her striking. My analysis and betting was absolutely sound your criticism then, as it is now, is frankly bullshit. Ironically, I brought it up because at the same time as criticising me now for it, you did the same mentioning to JimGunn (A superior bettor to both of us) how you had been so great predicting Chiasson to win prior to 231. You're not only wrong then but a hypocrite too.

    You're then choosing to misinterpret information like TDD statistics for the sake of trying to prove a point and it's just embarrassing to read. I'm no great bettor but you're utterly ridiculous. I offered an analytical counter argument to your points on Rose vs Andrade and you immediately bring up old analysis and use it in some weak attempt to insult my overall betting analysis? Really? Get a grip, the lack of insecurity you must have in your betting is just woeful to react like that. I'm done with petty back and forth with someone that's clearly not worth my time as for all his criticism his results aren't anything remotely special and his individual bets have been wrong while I've been right.

    Good luck in your bets, you clearly need it.
     
  7. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    I don't care about you one way or another. But your analysis is awful while being very smug/arrogant.

    Have you suffered a traumatic brain injury that effects your short-term memory? YOU were the one who randomly brought up Eye-Chookagian, not me. Anyone can literally scroll up and see.

    And you doing so was comical, because you were arguing that Eye would win by outwrestling Chookagian. Instead, Chookagian easily stuffed all of Eye's attempts, as I claimed.

    You used it as an example of you being a better analyst when in fact it shows the exact opposite.

    Doubling down on stupidity, I see.

    A lack of insecurity is a good thing!

    Okay dude, you were talking about how happy you were about your 14% ROI over all of last year in the other topic. I had a roughly 200% ROI in 2.5 months and now that's not "anything remotely special".

    Which is it? Is a 14% ROI in a year awesome, or is 200% ROI in a small fraction of that time pedestrian?

    And yet, despite this, you repeatedly call ME the hypocrite.

    Written spitefully, like an aggrieved little child. Frankly, I don't care how you do in your bets, good or bad.

    I just decided to call out your very poor analysis. It's weird to me that the same people who claim to be annoyed by Kyle Stephens (whose analysis is markedly better) seem fine with you.
     
  8. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Ok dude, you're great, cause that 200% ROI in 2 months will totally last. Not like you are showing your betting naivety at all on that one.
    Clearly you're the superior guy here. I'll drop a few units on Rose now and not waste anymore of your time. I'll just keep listening to the proven long-term profitable guys and let the pros like you make the real money.
     
  9. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    Haha, you were literally the person who randomly brought up betting results, and how mine were "nothing special". But like Eye-Chookagian, this argument backfired on you.

    Not surprising this level of dishonesty and failure to acknowledge past events makes for poor analysis.
     
  10. Dianabol Blue Belt

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    @PolarBearPaulVarelans @Jordan3399 LOL at you guys. But after reading all that garbage I'm gonna give the win to PolarBear. Jordan, you really cucked yourself by saying "you did the same mentioning to JimGunn (A superior bettor to both of us)", beta mentality.

    And boasting about your betting record is really easy when you don't have a betting record LOL
     
  11. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    Ricardo Ramos +120 vs Said in Brazil....

    Need to watch tape but I was immensely impressed with what I’ve seen in Ramos and feel he has a ground/size advantage especially IN Brazil here

    Only have seen Said in one fight , need to watch more but was thoroughly unimpressed
    Anyone else feel this way?
     
  12. zeckdo Blue Belt

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  13. stretcharmstrong Purple Belt

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  14. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    Luke Sanders -140 vs Barao

    Oh my that was a good one
     
  15. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    As for rose in Brazil: yea she’s definitely a head case. Shook by protestors, rumors of protestors, mcgregor bus incident

    But I will say it didn’t affect the way she fought

    Brazil should be pretty hostile for her, but that’s no guarantee

    Anyhow, I like Andrade in the matchup but don’t really like the price on her. Rose has been susceptible throughout her career to wrestlers. Andrade will also have a big strength advantage, but that’s every fight she’s in.

    Andrade has great output as well and is very aggressive.

    Don’t see rose winning a decision in Brazil

    sub is her most likely path here
     
  16. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    Where’d u find that man?
     
  17. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    Dimes

    He’s up to -190 Last I checked. -140 was gone quick. Still think -190 is playable
     
  18. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    Lol damnit

    I know Barao is a doormat at this point but I can’t trust Luke Sanders to not pull defeat from the jaws of victory either
     
  19. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    I hear you. The -200 mark is pushing it

    Also like alex caceres +265 vs Kron Gracie
     
  20. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    A lot of great fights announced recently. Haven't been on twitter enough to post them as they are announced but some good ones in there...

    Groovy Lando vs Marcos Mariano [UFC 234]

    Zaleski Vs Curtis Millender [UFC Witchita]

    Wonderboy vs Showtime Pettis in the works.

    Curtis Blaydes vs Justin Willis [UFC Nashville]

    EDSON BARBOZA vs JUSTIN GAETHJE WHOOO
     

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