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General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - January, 2019

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by 2bet, Jan 1, 2019.

  1. burge13 Purple Belt

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    Zaleski deserves a bigger name by now but good fight
    Wonderboy will be -500 v Pettis. If he isn't, he should be. Pettis was 145 not long ago and isn't exactly powerful at 55 let alone 70
    Barboza v Gaethje is amazing. Don't care about odds for that, just watch and enjoy
     
  2. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Got some nice futures via a random Aus book

    [​IMG]
     
  3. ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    Curious to see where that opens. Zaleski as a small favorite would be nice. I don’t see him opening as the dog there
     
  4. burge13 Purple Belt

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    Cain has more value at 9.00 than Stipe IMO. If he beats Ngannou they'll give him the shot once DC retires + he beats Stipe if they fight.

    Like Moraes, Usman & Adesanya already into 5.00, LHW is relying on Jones moving up however
     
  5. piglord Black Belt

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    any euro book have futures bets?
     
  6. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Stipe shits in Cain's ear IMO, especially with how sluggish and shit he looked on the pads. Cain's never been much of a hitter or a striker.

    Cain/Ngannou winner probably fights Stipe for the vacant title.
     
  7. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    Am I reading that right that Reyes is even money to be LHW champ?

    Don’t like that at all
     
  8. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    No. That's +2000. 20-to-1.
     
  9. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    Oh so the right # is the odds... ok got it
     
  10. burge13 Purple Belt

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    I disagree greatly with Stipe beating Cain easily. Cain is a myth to me at this point as he never fights but his skillset is better than Stipes if fit (big if I know)

    Agree with that being the title fight though. No idea where Lesnar fits in anymore, hype around that has largely died but could throw a spanner in this scenario
     
  11. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    The more tape I watch the more I start to think sub for Rose is the only way for her to win that fight. The key difference between her and Jedrzejczyk was the clinch. She can't own the clinch the way Jedrzejczyk did v Jess. No way. And this was Jedrzejczyk's safety blanket. She was winning the distance striking battle, but when Andrade came close Joanna shut her down with her clinch game. I don't see Rose doing anything like that. Not for extended periods of time. And this is the second part of her problems - she doesn't have the insane stamina Jedrzejczyk had. And she will need all of it v Andrade. Andrade is little terminator, she doesn't tire or feel pain or being discouraged by anything. Another bad news for Rose is that Andrade is a commited body puncher, this will make her edge in stamina even bigger than it is. I really start to not see problems betting big on Andrade even on a favourite odds. As long as there is a hedge bet on Rose by sub.

    Gaethje is insanely bad match-up for Barb. I expect him to knock him out, or at the very least, win a dominant decision. I am even willing to pay steep price to bet on Justin.

    ZDS is gonna whoop that boy for sure. He is so much better everywhere. Not to mention big edge in UFC experience. I watched enough Millender fights to think I know where the limits of that boy are. This is where his winstreak stops. :)
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2019
  12. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Can we stop giving Barboza matchups with hyper aggressive pressure fighters?

    Wonderboy - Pettis will be such a underwhelming fight.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2019
  13. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    I agree on both points . on Barboza, he seems to serve as cannon fodder / a top ten gate keeper

    And my only interest in a wonderboi Pettis fight will be adding wonderboi as a -500 or whatever to a parlay
     
  14. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Anyone have thoughts on Bellator Newcastle? Specifically the Chalmers vs Browning fight? Browning at +150 and Chalmers -200 and I've been waiting a while to fade Chalmers, don't think Browning is nothing that good but I think at +odds it's reasonable after he beat Baby Slice. He's a reasonable enough fighter and against Chalmers chin high and swing wild striking I can see him catching him straight up the middle easily enough, his BJJ should be considerably better than Chalmers too although he isn't a great grappler or anything.
     
  15. zeckdo Blue Belt

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  16. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    I actually won pretty nice on Browning against Slice but I dunno man, that physique...he looks like a child.
    corey-browning-bellator-207-weigh-ins.jpg
     
  17. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    That's my biggest concern looking at it, the guy looks like he doesn't fight or even take it that seriously. Chalmers at least looks athletic, even if he just trains for the aesthetic which wouldn't surprise me at all given his background.
     
  18. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Slice beat himself that fight more than anything too. That was a classic Bellator pathetic mess. I kind of love that organization. Find it pretty damn difficult to gamble on but super entertaining haha.
     
  19. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Playing devils advocate a bit I think Pettis as a big underdog could be good and not an entirely terrible match up.

    He's still going to be cutting weight for 170 as champ he was around 175 which is similar to what Cerrone was doing at welterweight and also assumes he won't gain weight to fight Thompson. Also, Thompson isn't a big welterweight either, he was 180 at UFC 205 and bulked up for the Woodley rematch to around 188 which is almost average for plenty of lightweights nowadays. He'll be bigger but not by a huge amount. He also offers none of the factors that traditionally Pettis was vulnerable too, he doesn't pressure or have solid wrestling to smother Pettis. Sitting back and letting Pettis get comfortable has always been an awful idea.

    Wonderboy will also be 36 coming off a knee injury in the fight and I'm expecting to see his decline pretty soon as a top contender. Never going to rematch Woodley, lost to Till and would probably get smothered by Usman and Colby. He might cling to the top 10 for a couple of years but I'm sure he himself knows the end is near, as soon as his speed and athleticism goes his style will be far less effective as well as being somewhat figured out already.

    Stylistically I think if Pettis can use his speed, take out Wonderboy's lead leg and at any point bring in his BJJ then he has a decent shot and much as I favour Wonderboy I don't think Pettis at +550 or whatever he'll be come fight night is entirely justified.
     
  20. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    I normally avoid betting Bellator too much given it's harder to research with much crazier shit going on but it sure is funny the stuff that goes down.
     

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