Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by 2bet, Jan 1, 2019.
On the dogs for tonight on AXS. Mariscal, Cavan, Born, and Rota.
Based on anything or just taking flyers on principal?
Capped them all pre odds. I actually favor Mariscal. I'm not surprised in the line being bet down here. I think it's people just betting based off an undefeated record. Mariscal really doesn't have bad losses for an LFA fighter. I definitely favor Adams over Cavan, but odds are steep. Cavan is my smallest play. Stroup/Rota is a bit more out of principle. Stroup is 2-4 in his last 6, and it's not like he's facing stellar comp. Rota's losses are to Heinisch and Meerschart, but he's crushing cans besides that. I capped that fight closer to evens. Born/Jones line is puzzling honestly. How is Jones favored here? Born should be able to grapple him easily, and Jones hasn't looked to be a finishing threat. This seems like an easier fight than Kassius for Born.
Man, Taylor Johnson needs a big step up in competition. He looks outstanding out there every time.
I almost lost my shirt on that one. Born and Mariscal were normal size plays where Cavan and Rota were smaller plays. I had Mariscal originally at +200, so it only covered my Born loss. I added more to him pre-fight and went through a rollercoaster of emotions. With Rd 1, I felt like it was an outstanding play. Rd 2 happens, and I feel like he's just letting the fight possibly slip away. Rd 3 starts and he gets the takedown + mount, and I'm back to thinking he's got this easy. Then it gets switched around again. Really close fight. If Mariscal would have just held position, he wouldn't have given me a heart attack throughout.
Somehow N'Gannou is +210 against Velasquez right now. A Velasquez who hasn't fought in over 2.5 years, has mostly been photographed in hospital beds, is 36, and is facing someone who would have been extraordinarily dangerous in his prime.
I took 3 units.
Pettis v Wonderboy will look a lot like Thompson v Masvidal. But Pettis will do much worse than Masvidal.
I wonder why you guys are not all over that +money on J.Vick!
The guy is a freaking welterweight first of all, then we add slick boxing counters, hard kicks and killer BJJ. I think Felder will be lucky to see the judges. His path to victory is to wrestle, but I am sure it's gonna be too late when he realises that. If he does it at all.
Don't let recent loss to Gaethje sway you away from the money. Felder fights nothing compared to Gaethje... and let me tell you, that left body kick of Vick was very hard, it was bothering Gaethje, it would be money in the bank for the later rounds for Vick, if Justin didn't end the fight that early. And maybe some lucky kick would hit the liver, who knows? I know Felder took nasty kicks from Barbosa too, but Barbosa ain't no 6'4 giant, he is freaking fast but not as big. I'm telling you, as awakward as Vick can look with his stand up, the force that these long ass limbs of him have is not something to overlook.
I am definitly on Vick
4 dogs - I like the chances of at least two of those four winning, looking forward to UFC ESPN 1
Vick should be a healthy favorite IMO. I'm already 4u on him @ +125 on 365, and looking to move that onto +140 elsewhere. Felder's just kind of mediocre in my opinion.
Roni yahya + odds against ricky Simon i like
Vick as a dog?! Take my 2,5U!
Yea, I’ve been thinking along the same lines. Fully expect Wonderboy to win and probably finish him but the line will likely be ridiculously wide. I’d take a small stab at Pettis at a super fat line
Glad I am not the only one. I'm thinking a 5u play for me. Still have time, I'll watch a bit more tape. Vick spent time in Thailand working on his MT for this fight. Confidence increase.
Surprised to see so many risking multiple units on Vick. I need to tape still, but pretape was thinking Felder was going to get inside and wreck him.
I don't think multi unit bets is particularly smart given his complete lack of durability but I agree with the lean to Vick. His weaknesses have been his TDD and people with a solid overhand, Felder has decent muay thai but his boxing isn't particularly good and he just wants to elbow everyone which against a guy 4 inches taller than him is a terrible idea. He's probably at a grappling disadvantage as well.
Definitely interested in watching tape for this one, intriuging fight. Never been a big Vick believer FWIW.
Neither have I to be honest and bet against him his last 2 fights but I think Felder's getting way too much respect for having some good KO's and being a prominent guy in the sport for his broadcasting work. But really his only solid win is probably Oliveira where it's a miracle he didn't get submitted as his sub defence and grappling was laughably bad. He has a lot of KOs but his power is really in his knees and elbows which I don't see him landing on a guy Vicks size, Dariush got a solid Thai Plum on Vick and but couldn't do anything significantly offensive with it at all cause of the height difference.
Prettymuch. Felder's big two wins are gigantic comebacks against Cruickshank and Oliveira.
It's more the "tall man defence" than durability. I remember somebody said Gaethje has the record on that punching machine in the UFC P.I. The guy is hitting so fucking hard...
I think being one of the biggest LWs vs former FW is having something to do with it.
Pretty much, watching him trying to defend against the d'arce was painfully bad, the guys meant be a blue belt and even that is probably pushing it. He just sort of muscled his way out of stuff until Charles was like screw it I'm done and quit after eating an elbow.
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