General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - January, 2019

Why does Shane Young keep getting wider against Austin Arnett? They're on the same tier in my book.

Bunch of openers on 5D. Anything jumping out at anyone?

Dariush should probably be a bigger fav. Moraes ML could be the spot, Martin's not a great TDD guy and there's a gulf in grappling ability there.

Masvidal & Edwards definitely the right side at those prices.
 
Why does Shane Young keep getting wider against Austin Arnett? They're on the same tier in my book.



Dariush should probably be a bigger fav. Moraes ML could be the spot, Martin's not a great TDD guy and there's a gulf in grappling ability there.

Masvidal & Edwards definitely the right side at those prices.

I was happy to get arnett at +190

Edwards already +105
 
I was happy to get arnett at +190

Edwards already +105
Same. I picked up a little Arnett at a similar price and now it's going wide for no apparent reason.

Guntards should hopefully get him to +130 or so.
 
Nelson v Edwards is very very tricky fight to predict. Anyone willing to bet big one way or another - don't do it, pls, save your money.
 
Why does Shane Young keep getting wider against Austin Arnett? They're on the same tier in my book.

I put in a max bet ($1k) on Shane Young at -210, cap him around -450. Arnett hasn't won a round against a UFC calibre opponent. I actually bet Arnett vs Bumdenay since he isn't UFC calibre and fades horribly, but I don't see a path for him against Young. Pressure, volume, durability, wrestling, power all in Young's favor. He is going to consistently back Arnett up and unleash combos, mix in tds, etc. Going to look similar to Dy fight, except Dy actually has decent boxing and power. Arnett is a can crusher from one of the worst gyms out there, his coach was the ref in some of his regional fights ffs lol. Young rolls him.
 
With you guys on the Edwards lean pretape and was pretty surpised to see Till open as such a big fav, but line has already come in substantially.
 
Can we stop giving Barboza matchups with hyper aggressive pressure fighters?

Wonderboy - Pettis will be such a underwhelming fight.

I get the feeling the UFC is giving Barboza strikers to fight because Khabib wrote the book on how to beat him. Take him down and GNP.

At least with strikers he can trade and, as we saw in his last fight, he can do so effectively.
 
I get the feeling the UFC is giving Barboza strikers to fight because Khabib wrote the book on how to beat him. Take him down and GNP.

At least with strikers he can trade and, as we saw in his last fight, he can do so effectively.
Wouldn't say Khabib really wrote the book when Edson had 4 UFC losses already where he lost primarily striking matches. Barboza just isn't as elite as his reputation would suggest, he needs guys like Hooker who are just even lower level than him and don't have the fight IQ to actually exploit any of the many holes Edson has. He looks great against a lot of guys but pretty mediocre against the elite or even guys like Michael Johnson. On paper a big hitting pressure fighter like Gaethje has historically been much more of a problem for Barboza than any grapplers.
 
How do people see Masvidal actually beating Till? Till has shown solid TDD and aside from the shot he ate off Woodley a good chin too. Masvidal is tough as hell so unlikely to be finished but pre-tape I'd expect Till to take a pretty dominant decision similar to how Wonderboy beat Masvidal.
 
Wouldn't say Khabib really wrote the book when Edson had 4 UFC losses already where he lost primarily striking matches. Barboza just isn't as elite as his reputation would suggest, he needs guys like Hooker who are just even lower level than him and don't have the fight IQ to actually exploit any of the many holes Edson has. He looks great against a lot of guys but pretty mediocre against the elite or even guys like Michael Johnson. On paper a big hitting pressure fighter like Gaethje has historically been much more of a problem for Barboza than any grapplers.

Ok I will agree he didn't write the book but I think you get the point. Khabib took Barboza down and beat the everliving shit out of him. A wrestler who can take Barboza down is going to win outside of Barboza landing an early leg kick or something to send someone into orbit.

I honestly can't wait to see Gaethje/Barboza. I feel like that is going to be an epic fucking fight and both fighters know how to take a ton of damage. I have zero read on who wins because I feel like both of their paths to victory are nearly identical. That said, if Gaethje would remember his wrestling prowess for like one fight he would win this easily.
 
How do people see Masvidal actually beating Till? Till has shown solid TDD and aside from the shot he ate off Woodley a good chin too. Masvidal is tough as hell so unlikely to be finished but pre-tape I'd expect Till to take a pretty dominant decision similar to how Wonderboy beat Masvidal.

Agreed 100 pct here and I bet taking Till by decision or even with the point spread to cover the possible death blow is the bet I'll make.
 
Ok I will agree he didn't write the book but I think you get the point. Khabib took Barboza down and beat the everliving shit out of him. A wrestler who can take Barboza down is going to win outside of Barboza landing an early leg kick or something to send someone into orbit.

I honestly can't wait to see Gaethje/Barboza. I feel like that is going to be an epic fucking fight and both fighters know how to take a ton of damage. I have zero read on who wins because I feel like both of their paths to victory are nearly identical. That said, if Gaethje would remember his wrestling prowess for like one fight he would win this easily.
I get what you're saying in that if you can take Barboza down and control him there you can dominate him. It's just seriously hard for anyone to do that and both Lee and Khabib are very high level grapplers compared to your average wrestler. It's just not something the vast majority of fighters can ever actually hope to achieve as Barboza does actually have well above average TDD and guys with generally solid wrestling like Dariush and Melendez got shutdown completely trying to hit takedowns. I actually kind of think offensively Gaethje probably wouldn't do that well with his wrestling in MMA because he never has taken the time to actually adapt it to the sport, I really hope he does though, he has a lot of potential he just doesn't use and I think he's a terrible match up for Khabib cause of his wrestling base.
 
Gaethje was a division 1 All American wrestler man, I get the feeling he could get Barboza to the mat but he just refuses to use his fucking wrestling. I am guessing its partly for that fight of the night/performance of the night bonus and partly to give the fans what they want.. which is a badass motherfucker going apeshit. He's my favorite fighter and its not even close but I have a bad feeling he will be eating from a straw someday if he keeps this shit up.

Even if he were to shoot a couple of times on Edson whether he lands the takedowns or not, it would turn the fight in his favor because Barboza would have to account for the level changes in the fight.
 
Sorry for the double reply but I did a little google sesh after my comment and found this link:

https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2018/4/...irier-wrestling-striking-lightweight-mma-news

“I’ve been wrestling my whole life. I should’ve and could’ve took him down a couple of times, especially when I had him rocked just to steal a round or two. For some reason, my mind will not let me do it.

“I think I sold myself so hard on the fact that this is not wrestling. I don’t know, I honestly don’t know the answer to that question.”

“It gets you tired. If I’m going to get tired, I’d rather it be from fighting and not from wrestling. That’s the reason why I never wanted to wrestle. But I did so much cardio this camp that it would not have been a problem for me to turn it into a wrestling match, but I just can’t do it, it would not be fun for me.”

But when it came up again later, Gaethje changed tacks a bit and said that while wrestling could have been effective, it would have been contrary to his real gameplan against Poirier anyway:

“I took a hard shot, it knocked me out. I definitely have to keep people guessing whether I’m going to take them down. My main game plan on Saturday night was to go in their and break his legs, and right off the bat I had a lot of success in doing that.

“I know why I didn’t take him down, it would have defeated the entire purpose of my game plan. If I took him down I wouldn’t be able to kick his leg, that’s what my mindset was.”
 
Gaethje was a division 1 All American wrestler man, I get the feeling he could get Barboza to the mat but he just refuses to use his fucking wrestling. I am guessing its partly for that fight of the night/performance of the night bonus and partly to give the fans what they want.. which is a badass motherfucker going apeshit. He's my favorite fighter and its not even close but I have a bad feeling he will be eating from a straw someday if he keeps this shit up.

Even if he were to shoot a couple of times on Edson whether he lands the takedowns or not, it would turn the fight in his favor because Barboza would have to account for the level changes in the fight.
Gaethje does not know how to mix up strikes with takedowns. That is a very important skill which he does not have. That is why he doesn't do it in fights. When he says that it takes a lot of energy to take someone down. It's true..... For him. If you try to just straight up take someone down without feints or strikes to set it up it's going to take more energy because it's so deliberate/obvious & opponents can see it coming.
 
Sorry for the double reply but I did a little google sesh after my comment and found this link:

https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2018/4/...irier-wrestling-striking-lightweight-mma-news

“I’ve been wrestling my whole life. I should’ve and could’ve took him down a couple of times, especially when I had him rocked just to steal a round or two. For some reason, my mind will not let me do it.

“I think I sold myself so hard on the fact that this is not wrestling. I don’t know, I honestly don’t know the answer to that question.”

“It gets you tired. If I’m going to get tired, I’d rather it be from fighting and not from wrestling. That’s the reason why I never wanted to wrestle. But I did so much cardio this camp that it would not have been a problem for me to turn it into a wrestling match, but I just can’t do it, it would not be fun for me.”

But when it came up again later, Gaethje changed tacks a bit and said that while wrestling could have been effective, it would have been contrary to his real gameplan against Poirier anyway:

“I took a hard shot, it knocked me out. I definitely have to keep people guessing whether I’m going to take them down. My main game plan on Saturday night was to go in their and break his legs, and right off the bat I had a lot of success in doing that.

“I know why I didn’t take him down, it would have defeated the entire purpose of my game plan. If I took him down I wouldn’t be able to kick his leg, that’s what my mindset was.”
Yeah against someone like Poirier just threatening or hitting a couple of even brief takedowns could of benefitted him hugely. If he just used it as a way of win rounds while simultaneously accumulating damage it would be much smarter as he gives up rounds way too much.

Really not sure on predicting Gaethje-Barboza. In theory Gaethje's pressure and power should crumble Edson but he's way too hittable so Edson could wipe him out. Also I can see Gaethje trying to go leg kick for leg kick like Hooker tried and just getting smashed.
 
It's Gaethje's fight to lose almost. He is one of the best pressure fighters @ 155. Not terribly fast mover, but would say cuts the octagon technically which helps him with that. Barb struggles with ppl making the octagon small on him. I say it's almost Gaethje's fight to lose because I don't know how his cardio will hold up over 5 and Barboza is really nasty of you can't keep up with his pace. But I have a strong feeling Gaethje won't need the full 5 to win here. He will be the strongest puncher Edson faced in all of his UFC career. I really don't think there is any comparison.

I see a repeat of his Vick win, but it will take longer. Or maybe not, Edson was showing a weak chin in some fights. For sure he is not the most durable in the division.
 
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