Glory 43 NYC- Adegbuyi vs Inocente

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GLORY Kickboxing 43: New York
Fri, Jul 14, 2017
Madison Square Garden - New York
ESPN3 at 10:00pm ET

Heavyweight Bout:

Guto Inocente +485
Benjamin Adegbuyi -855

Over 2.5 -190
Under 2.5 +150
-

Lightweight Bout:

Elvis Gashi +145
Josh Jauncey -185

Over 2.5 -215
Under 2.5 +165
-

Glory Kickoxing SuperFight Series
UFC Fight Pass at 7:30PM ET

Interim Light Heavyweight Title Headline Bout:

Saulo Cavalari +200
Pavel Zhuravlev -280

Over 2.5 -175
Under 2.5 +135
 
Only three bettable fights so far for this card, but I think some of these lines are off. I like the under 2½ at +165 when I bet it in the Jauncey/Gashi fight as Josh Jauncey has stopped most of his Glory opponents other than the top ranked ones and Gashi is debuting in Glory. In the heavyweight fight two time title challenger Benjamin Adegbuyi surely should be the favorite, but massive line movement with people laying bets or parlaying the Romanian has gotten Guto Inocente up to a whopping +1050. I thought Hesdy Gerges- also a very good heavyweight- would beat Inocente, but the Brazilian managed to eke out a split decision not long ago. Indeed, Inocente has won all his fights in Glory except most recently losing a unanimous decision to 6' 9" giant Ben Saddik from Morocco. So I think that there is value in Inocente at +1050, especially at heavyweight. Lastly, in the interim LHW title fight, hard hitting Brazilian Saulo Cavalari at +170 has value in my opinion too against top ranked Russian Pavel Zhuralev despite losing a decision to him a few years ago in K-1. Cavalari has beaten all of his opponents in Glory except currently injured champion Artem Vakhitov and fearsome Tyrone Spong a few years ago. These bets could easily go 0 for 3 or 1 for 3, but I'm playing the value here.
 
Full card

GLORY 43 NEW YORK FIGHT CARD
Friday, July 14

MAIN CARD
10:00 p.m. ET, ESPN3

Benjamin Adegbuyi vs. Guto Inocente
Featherweight Tournament Finals
Josh Jauncey vs. Elvis Gashi
Semifinal: Kevin VanNostrand vs. Mo Abdurahman
Semifinal: Giga Chikadze vs. Aleksei Ulianov

SUPERFIGHT SERIES
7:30 p.m. ET, Fight Pass

Interim Light Heavyweight Title: Saulo Cavalari vs. Pavel Zhuravlev
Arthur Sorsor vs. Bailey Sugden
Ariel Sepulveda vs. Joe Taylor
Anissa Meksen vs. Jady Menezes
Itay Gershon vs. Rafal Dudek
Terrence Hill vs. Chenchen Li
 
Glory 43 Risk $503.40

Guto Inocente (+1130) vs Benjamin Adegbuyi $100.00 for $1,130.00
Guto Inocente (+1050) vs Benjamin Adegbuyi $100.00 for $1,050.00

Josh Jauncey/Elvis Gashi Under 2½ (+165) $100.00 for $165.00

Saulo Cavalari (+170) vs Pavel Zhuravlev $100.00 for $170.00

Mo Abdurahman (+118) vs Kevin Vannostrand ~$103.40 for ~$122.01
 
Glory 43 Risk $503.40

Guto Inocente (+1130) vs Benjamin Adegbuyi $100.00 for $1,130.00
Guto Inocente (+1050) vs Benjamin Adegbuyi $100.00 for $1,050.00

Josh Jauncey/Elvis Gashi Under 2½ (+165) $100.00 for $165.00

Saulo Cavalari (+170) vs Pavel Zhuravlev $100.00 for $170.00

Mo Abdurahman (+118) vs Kevin Vannostrand ~$103.40 for ~$122.01

wow, congrats, jim
 
Wow @ JimGunn. *bows*

Just lovely. I was looking at that line today with no research and thinking "man, what if.." Great win!
 
Congratulations Jim, outstanding call.
 
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