How do you research?

[trident]

For the future I'm going to just pull names out of a hat. Cant be worse than my current approach.

 

[ApplesVild]

I'm pretty sure you can't get a mortgage as a professional handicapper. Hell @Oblivian was saying just having transactions with betting sites could hurt you in that regard.

That is definitely true in the UK, they will basically say they need to see several months worth of bank statements showing no gambling transactions before they can proceed. Suppose it shows unstable spending and increased risk.

Post your research strategy bro

 

[Oblivian]

I'm pretty sure you can't get a mortgage as a professional handicapper. Hell @Oblivian was saying just having transactions with betting sites could hurt you in that regard.

In most states, that would definitely be true. I'm sure there are some pro gamblers in Vegas that can show the income and get a mortgage. The main issue would be reporting the earnings accurately as income. There is an obvious underwriting risk as well.

Throughout the years, there have been several people dinged by a mortgage company for a deposit into their account from gambling winnings. "Source of funds" is a huge aspect in the mortgage industry when they examine bank accounts now. I have always kept a separate bank account that I do not even provide when the bank asks for statements from my accounts. You then get in the aspect of "is that money reported income" which can turn into a big deal.

As much as i hate working for 'the man' I'd go barney sitting at home every day. Work is as much social as it is a job, just getting social interaction is important IMO

Unless I can make 'fuck you money' betting it will always be a side gig for extra beer money. I'm not even sure I'd enjoy betting professionally. Stressing your mortgage on a judges decision doesn't sound like fun but if people enjoy the hustle more power to them!

Be extremely skeptical of people that claim they do this for a living. There are so many barriers to overcome. Limits, tax issues, certainty of profit, etc. I mean it is possible, but unlikely. This is the reason that most turn to being a tout. Sell the dream of being a professional gambler, and make money from people believing in that. In reality, the gambling winnings aren't really what is providing the living - it's the people paying you to shill picks.

 

[Sono07]

Good post @ApplesVild. Still pretty new at this and transitioning from casual fan to part time degen so I'm working on my scale. I have a few do's and don't that seem to serve me well though. Like you I learned to avoid bias based on favorites. RDA taught me that leason after I underestimated and wrote off Edwards largely because of fandom even breaking a few of my own rules. So when Lawer vs Colby came around I went with Colby. Even though I really wanted the ruthless one to starch him between age/mileage and styles I really didn't see Colby losing.

 

[Sono07]

I usually compare a few notes for every fight on a card even if I don't bet. Starts with the basics height, reach, age highlighting any big disparities. Between that and memory/fighter recognition I pick a few potential plays taking heed to others perspectives in case I miss something. Then comes tape usually 1-3 fights to consider fighter improvements small point system factoring basics movement/footwork, striking/defense, wrestling/BJJ, power/speed, over all styles ect.

 

[Sono07]

Then we get the little X factors

Drive/Mentality: How bad do they want it, is this just a check or a lifestyle? Do they look for a way out of the fight or a way to push from bell to bell?

Venue/Crowd: the hometown hero doesn't always win but they may receive preferential treatment from the ref/judges (hit a small degen parlay after blindly adding "the world's first Uruguayan fighter" ...... on a card in Uruguay, brings me to my next X factor.
Marketability: small consideration but the UFC is a business as such they promote fighters to sell there product this is a young man's game after all. Having several local fighters on a card is great for business, sparking them all unconscious is not beware of selective match making.

 

[San Griente]

I may be fooling myself, but it seems like you can really make money betting MMA.

I’m discounting what I’ve read about bookies limiting you, banning you, etc. That would obviously make it impossible.

But despite the fact that I have only been watching MMA for 11 months; I have zero experience fighting or training; I have the wrong kind of mind to analyze fights and fighters; And at least half the time I lay bets for the flimsiest of reasons....

despite all that, my bankroll is up 70% over the course of 6 months and 75-100 bets placed.

There’s so much hype and nonsense that seems to set the lines, and I get the feeling that most bettors (not the ones here) don’t even bother to watch peoples’ fights before they bet.

Kind of talking out my butt, because all the money I’ve wagered is credit I got for free due to a bookie’s error. But still.

Am I wrong?

 

[San Griente]

Also, it seems like the fewer bets I make, the better I do. But that contradicts the model I see among the hardcores here, who place lots of bets based on value, hoping to come out ahead in the end.

I just can’t see putting money on a guy I think will lose, based on the “value’ of his odds.

 

[ApplesVild]

Also, it seems like the fewer bets I make, the better I do. But that contradicts the model I see among the hardcores here, who place lots of bets based on value, hoping to come out ahead in the end.

I just can’t see putting money on a guy I think will lose, based on the “value’ of his odds.

I think a lot of people here place bets here because they are some what addicted and with ome UFC event a week they have the itch to place money, and if you've spent 2/3 hours watching tape on a low level WMMA fight you can be sure a bet is getting placed regardless of having a true read

 

[Sono07]

Also, it seems like the fewer bets I make, the better I do. But that contradicts the model I see among the hardcores here, who place lots of bets based on value, hoping to come out ahead in the end.

I just can’t see putting money on a guy I think will lose, based on the “value’ of his odds.

Still pretty new at this myself, but I agree I think a few confident picks works better than a more broad approach. At least for my tape heavy style. I get a little burned out taping too many fights, and some of the lower level guys can be pretty inconsistent with too many will they won't they situations. I like to try and pick fights and then odds usually I know some would disagree and find value in the numbers alone.

 

[Oblivian]

It shouldn't be shocking that people place a lot of bets and don't skip many fights. With reduced juice and line movement, it is extremely likely that your capping % chance will vary from the implied probabilities at some point. I mean look at current lines for the next UFC. You have Felder at a 43% probability and Barboza at a 60% probability. Khabib around 82% and Poirier around 21%. It's not like there is a huge spread between the two where it should be common that everyone is sitting in the middle seeing no value.