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He does not have an exceptional guard.... Tell me how does he set up his armbar? What sweeps does he use? How many sports Judo guys have a "great" guard? How many sambo guys are known for their "guard" work? You are claiming he is excels in that facet of grappling where his sport doesn't even focus in.
When Fedor was coming up, Sambo was considered a sport on the decline. Sambo was not considered a popular sport at that time. It took MMA's popularity to shine some light on it. Ask yourself why there are olympic Judo players winning medals in Sambo but no Sambo gold medalist making waves in olympic Judo?
Fedor himself was of course a pretty high level Judoka, coming 3rd n the Russian championships twice at a very young age definitely marks you out as a significant talent, it was actually him not getting his Master of Sports status/funding in Judo due to politics that caused him to shift to Sambo and then MMA and I suspect the former was always viewed as a path to the latter. Generally though Judoka don't tend to operate by prolonged guard fighting, they either go for subs like that armbar or they look to improve position quickly such as sweeping Nog and Randleman.
Again for me it wouldn't just be Fedor as a challenge for DC, most obviously I think Crocop and Nog would be massive tests for him as well.