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Law Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act: House to vote moved to Sept 30

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Lead, Jun 11, 2021.

  1. Lead /Led/ blanket Platinum Member

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    I don’t think you are necessarily countering anything I said. Yes, Schumer is pushing to keep a schedule for this bill to either move forward or see if it needs wrapped into the reconciliation bill. In order to do so, he’s pushing a timeline that the group wasn’t able to reach this week and it looks like now next week could he make or break since there is the recon bill that needs to be handled as well.
     
  2. andnowweknow I heard Trump lost

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    I directly contradicted your assertion that the Republicans voted this down because the bill wasn't in final form yet. Maybe you were just making note that that was the reasoning the Republicans put forward as to why they voted it down? In that case, it would be reasonable to point out, as a caveat to it, that the Republicans have objectively proven themselves to be bad faith negotiators. I'm not sure that's really a debatable issue at this point.
     
  3. Lead /Led/ blanket Platinum Member

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    I mean, I don’t see reason to assume that wasn’t the reason if next week it proceeds. I think that would show a clearer picture about what might be going on behind the scenes. My guess is out of the 11 GOP members, there are a few that are still pushing for changes and they would make or break the 60 votes.

    I suppose I shouldn’t have stated certainty as to why but at the same time, I’m not going to just write the whole thing off with the term bad faith in order to undermine the deal. Those on the GOP side of this deal are set to sink or swim next week from what it looks like. I don’t think Schumer is going to hold off on reconciliation long if they are delaying and have no qualms with him attempting to call bluffs if they are present. They did that with the original reconciliation/ relief bill where there were talks (less involved than this) and when it seemed clear there wasn’t enough really anything that was going to be agreed on, they moved forward pretty quick without them. It’s politically reasonable to do here too if next week fails.
     
  4. Lead /Led/ blanket Platinum Member

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    @andnowweknow

    Curious to know these two questions from you:
    -What odds do you current have of the procedural vote going through next week?
    -What odds do you have on the Senate bill, if it reaches the floor for a vote, passing in the senate?
     
  5. andnowweknow I heard Trump lost

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    that's fair if you are not taking into account that my assumption is, like pretty much all other Democrat led legislation, that the Republicans, without this vote called yesterday by Schumer, would have CONTINUED to "negotiate" in perpetuity. Schumer applied the pressure because the history of Republicans since Obama has been to "negotiate"...with no real intention of anything actually getting done, just extending and extending until the next election cycle...at which point they say "can't do anything now, sorry, let the voters decide"...rinse, wash, repeat. Their whole agenda is to do nothing, I'm not suggesting this because they are lazy, it's built into their entire platform...IE, slow the train of progress if you can't stop it or regress it.
     
  6. andnowweknow I heard Trump lost

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    Both of those things will occur because Republicans can't be ON RECORD as simply being obstructionists. I would posit that in part, they will occur directly because of the pressure being applied by Schumer through the vote yesterday. Schumer can put them on record over and over again as saying "No" to everything if that is the way they want to keep voting, which will have consequences for Republicans come 2022.

    Republicans in the Senate have been protected from having to make any votes under McConnell. Not so easy to go run for re-election when you actually have to run on the votes you make, something McConnell never made his caucus do for obvious reasons.
     
  7. Lead /Led/ blanket Platinum Member

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    Okay. I think we mainly agree. I just think it’s possible that the deadlines are necessary to nudge things to eventually happening. I completely agree it could dredge on for months if that didn’t occur but that also doesn’t solely mean they don’t want a deal on it. There are other bills that go through with Democrat and GOP support, they just aren’t as high profile as this infrastructure deal and yes, the GOP does default to less spending and in general, change than the democrats. I think that is important to note but not reasoning to say they can’t be worked with. You just have to establish the right guardrails which seem to be happening.

    As to whether it passes the senate, I’m not as certain since the vote margin could be close so a few flips kills it fast. Most of the closer GOP members to the deal aren’t even reseeking their seat so the interests in that group of 11 can vary a lot of ways.
     
  8. Lead /Led/ blanket Platinum Member

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    Agreement still not finalized on Sunday. Portman says it's at 90% with the last sticking point being how much funding goes to the transportation piece. The IRS enforcement ramp up has been removed as one of the sources of funding. The estimate for it was likely off by 400B anyways from what the IRS expected but the items taking it's place was a provision with Medicare:

    Senators Try to Finalize Deal on Infrastructure Package
    Wall Street Journal
     
  9. foxnewsfan Black Belt

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  10. Lead /Led/ blanket Platinum Member

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    No time to link but the bill is starting to hit a standstill at this point. Pressure from a few people that it all could be thrown out if an agreement isn’t reached, Manchin included.
     
  11. Lead /Led/ blanket Platinum Member

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    Agreement reached so a second procedural vote went through, passing this time 67-32. 17 of those votes were Republicans which could possibly mean there more room than the original 11 that will vote in favor of the bill. Mitch also backed it.

    Senate Advances Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal
    NPR

     
  12. andnowweknow I heard Trump lost

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    Bout time America did something big that makes sense all around.
     
    LangfordBarrow likes this.
  13. Lead /Led/ blanket Platinum Member

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    There should be optimism in the Senate but so far the Senate hasn’t passed it, the house hasn’t and also has their own bill they passed which doesn’t align with the senate bill, and Pelosi has sworn there won’t be a vote on this bill unless the reconciliation bill also makes it to the House. A bunch more still has to play out but I think it’s passing Senate is pretty likely now.
     
  14. andnowweknow I heard Trump lost

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    I think it will pass, in the end the Republicans can't run on saying no to something as globally popular as infrastructure. Still surprised Trump to go all in on this...probably a bit too much work lol.
     
  15. Lead /Led/ blanket Platinum Member

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    I don’t have much time to update during the weekdays but here’s some cliffs:
    -The bill has been released and is not longer a draft/ board agreement
    -This week is the process of proposed amendments but the timeline is still being pushed fast, causing Senators to scramble to get a chance for their amendment to have a chance at a vote. Not all amendments will likely get a vote but it’s always a good sign when this process has a decent amount of opportunity for senators to improve it
    -Cornyn has proposed an amendment that would allow state and local governments to spend unused pandemic relief funds on infrastructure (I believe it’s a match process close to 1:1).
    -The Cornyn amendment is popular with most of the senate and likely could get the 60+ votes needed for it to be added. What’s interesting is the White House doesn’t want this, showing a divide between some senate democrats and the White House.
    -The amendment process will likely wrap up by the end of the week with a voting approaching shortly after.

    I wish I could track the amendments coming through more this week but caught up with work. What I can say is this despite the rushed schedule that I’m not a fan of, this is what you should normally be seeing in a functioning senate. A bill coming to the floor, senators from either party being able to propose amendments, debate and vote on the revisions and then a final vote to see if it passes.
     
  16. Lead /Led/ blanket Platinum Member

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    Again, it’s important to stress the timetable is messed up. It’s a 2,000+ page bill and there’s about a week of deliberation, with most senators scrambling to get their amendment added and likely not looking at the entire original text. Generally, you’d want this to be a month I’d say but most of this has been months of the group of twenty coming to an agreement because the thinking is that’s enough for 60 votes so the other 40 don’t matter...
     
  17. Lead /Led/ blanket Platinum Member

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    U.S. infrastructure bill doesn't pay for itself, Congressional Budget Office says
    Reuters
     
    TeTe likes this.
  18. Queen B Fully Vaccinated

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    This is Marjorie Taylor Greene level stupidy

    I cant believe she tweeted this herself

    Also the irony of her post, there is no Iowa taxpayer money here. Most of the bill is coming from NY, NJ, CT, CA.

     
  19. Lead /Led/ blanket Platinum Member

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    Today is expected to be wrapping up the bill with a Senate vote. Schumer wants to move on to the reconciliation bill before the next recess. I think there might be a few more amendment votes but then the final one on passage.


    Here's also some of the debate on the bill Wednesday
     
  20. Lead /Led/ blanket Platinum Member

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    An update with the Cornyn amendment is the WH said they'd support allowing 30% of the unused COVID funding for states who wanted to use it towards infrastructure.

    Cornyn cuts a deal with White House on COVID-19 money for infrastructure
    The Hill
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2021

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