International Is the reform era over in Iran?

sounds like things are set up for a good Civil War.
 
I don't have much faith in these reform movements, I think its going to take lots of civil unrest like the kind that happened during the 1979 Iranian Revolution to affect real change in Iran. Iranian apathy and discontent with the current system seems to be growing and faith in these reform politicians dwindling so I think its possible within the next decade or so.
 
Of course you do. You're an Israeli firster, and Iran has been the largest focus of treasury warfare.



This is why abusing the dollar is destined to cause more harm to the US. These countries are now all actively working to create a parrallel infrastructure that insulates them from US sanctions but at the same time basically chips away at dollar primacy that gives the US an enormous advantage in the world. If dollar primacy is undermined we're talking massive inflation as the money supply of dollars will exceed demand, and the US won't be able to print its way out of each and every crisis.



This is nonsense. If anything its the elites who benefit as they have the connections to navigate the sanctions web.

These sanctions, particularly against Iran, have impoverished the middle classes and attacked sectors like car manufacturing, mining, shipping and pretty much anything they could categorise. The sanctioning of the central bank basically puts the entire economy under a dark cloud.

Regular people are being hurt the most by sanctions. Through a feckless president like Trump and all of his advisors, we see the impoverishment of the Iranian middle class and the consolidation of hard-line control. In Lebanon the financial sector has been crushed and people reduced to poverty. In Syria financial sanctions are designed to keep the country from rebuilding post-war.

In countries like Russia and China they are strong enough to take measures to reduce their dependence on US financial infrastructure. China, especially will provide much of the alternative.

And sanctions are just financial warfare. I hope it backfires, and it sounds like it is.
What does a Chinese alternative to the US dollar look like? Anyone who thinks the Yuan is ever going to replace the dollar is beyond saving, so I can only assume that the alternatives are direct trading of commodities.
 
I don't have much faith in these reform movements, I think its going to take lots of civil unrest like the kind that happened during the 1979 Iranian Revolution to affect real change in Iran. Iranian apathy and discontent with the current system seems to be growing and faith in these reform politicians dwindling so I think its possible within the next decade or so.
At least they aren’t a US satellite. They probably would have become a real democracy if that were the case.
 
At least they aren’t a US satellite. They probably would have become a real democracy if that were the case.
The Shah was just about to democratize and he would've got away with it too if it wasn't for those meddling mullahs and their dog.
 
What does a Chinese alternative to the US dollar look like? Anyone who thinks the Yuan is ever going to replace the dollar is beyond saving, so I can only assume that the alternatives are direct trading of commodities.

Well its difficult to know what the future will look like. At the top level I think the end of the dollar 'primacy' looks like this. There's an awful lot of dollars out there and if demand decreases then a slow move away from the dollar could become a stream and then a flood.
  • China becoming the worlds biggest economy and thus being able to dictate terms for commercial arrangements. Do you think they'll stick with dollars when the US has been weaponising it so vigrously?
  • Nations like China / Russia and others reducing exposure to USD holdings i.e. as part of their treasury / sovereign wealth funds / holding of US debt etc.
  • China promoting the Yuan and / or digital currency for trade.
  • Alternative capital markets becoming as attractive as US treasuries i.e. Chinese bonds / Eurozone bonds. Previously only US treasuries looked like a good bet. But now Chinese bonds pay more interest; and eurozone bonds are backed by the EU rather than just the constituent states.
  • The creation of financial messaging alternatives to SWIFT which don't run through Europe or subject to American pressure.
  • The excess money printing of the US Gov - creating 25% of the money supply in the last 2 years.
  • The rise of crypto currency as another alternative to holding USD. Digital currencies more generally could reduce the need for the USD to play the role it does in facilitating exchange.
 
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