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Kentucky Derby and Beyond (Part Deuce)

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 20, 2021.

  1. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    Looking forward to the race it snuck up on us since the last derby was only in September.
     
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  2. t6p Brown Belt

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    Shark! Great to see you back around. Blunt too! Hope all is well with you guys.

    I don't come around nearly as much as I used to, I maybe check the forum once or twice a week now, and unfortunately I've completely fallen off keeping up with the ponies. Not being able to go to Saratoga last summer for the first time in forever really sucked. In fact, when 5Dimes closed to US customers (maybe a year or two ago now?), I didn't even check if the bookie I'm using now had a racebook until just now. Turns out that they do.

    I'm going to take a much closer look through the thread starting tomorrow. I'd definitely like to try my hand at a few bets on the Derby.
     
  3. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Great to see you again, Meat, and likewise. I'm also looking forward to the race and getting back into playing along with you guys.
     
  4. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    T old friend. Great to see you too and I hope everything is well.

    And yeah, my interest in the ponies decreased a bunch last year as well. I still watched it on occasion just to keep some sense of sanity through the shit everybody's been going through. But I barely bet anything at all over the last year besides just farting around with small bets on a few occasions.

    You guys know me, though. If I can't get excited for the Derby then what's the point. It'll be great to get back into it that's for sure.
     
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  5. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    Hey man you too let’s crush some bets!
     
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  6. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    That's the plan, Meat. To at least try to anyways since there's no opportunity in racing like the Derby. We'll also need a lot of luck too of course.

    I'm just wondering what kind of info I can pass on to you guys that could maybe help. I basically just use my program for the most part, but that can be quite confusing. So if you, Blunt, T, or anyone else has a suggestion then by all means.
     
  7. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    I do need a refresher course on NPT and LET atm, looking thru our convos/my notes and can't find them atm. I have a whole bunch of old races where I was using the old Sharkey Formula in, a lot of cool horse names and math only a few of us on the planet would be able to tell what it was if they didn't know the Formula, haha.
     
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  8. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    Not my lane of music but very beautiful music nonetheless, it's obv her talent shows thru. Janet's super talented. One thing I just noticed is that she's already pretty popular huh? That song has almost a million views and she has over half a mil subscribers as well. She's very successful. The money from her yt and streaming just for that song means she's doing well for herself so congrats to her. Love it. My first and last beers tonight will be to her success and continued success both in her music career and horse betting career!
     
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  9. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Hopefully she appreciates that if she's looking in, Blunt. Which she just might be. ;)

    But she certainly is very talented. Great singer as well as writer, and is also extremely creative. She's also only an independent artist with a small team behind her, though, and had the unfortunate luck of releasing an album just when this pandemic really started to hit us. So, like everybody in the music industry, she wasn't able to tour the album after release.

    She said her plans was to look towards the country path for her next album, and she'll still sound amazing;

     
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  10. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    :(:p:D

    Just kidding. Those patterns might be a little tricky to explain without going into detail, but both have to do with a horse's last race in which they have shown an increase in their early energy ratings compared to what they've previous ever run (in the case of NPT) or what they typically run (for LET), with the LET pattern indicating that the horse who has it will now be entering the 3rd start of it's form cycle.

    I'll try to point them out in more detail once we get the final PPs for the Derby, though. There should be at least a couple who have some kind of pattern to them.

    The whole idea behind those patterns is that the last race works as a bit of a "lung opener" for the horse who have them and it will help it's overall fitness level heading into the next race. Very similar in concept to how many look at a "middle move" from a horse in it's previous start. Mine just cover a few more different situations. Nothing is fool proof, of course, or even close to it. But those patterns are generally a good sign for a horse, and are typically not represented at all on the tote.
     
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  11. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    This guy impressed me more than any other with his performance in the Santa Anita Derby, and based on his workouts that effort doesn't look to have taken anything out of him. Big athletic colt with a really nice stride to him. Really reaches out with his stride.

     
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  12. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    If anybody is into workouts at all to get a feel how the horses are coming into the race, Mike Welsch is back at it again this year providing great info. Most of these guys' final work took place over the last couple of days;



     
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  13. Black Paladin Funniest Sherdogger, P4P

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    Good stuff to look at and think about.
     
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  14. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Good luck this year boys. Hope everyone is staying physically and mentally healthy. Shits crazy out there.
     
  15. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Mike makes some interesting points about the two Blue Grass runners, that's for sure, one of which is going to be the Derby favourite. It is entirely possible those two may topped themselves with how hard they ran against each other over the final 3f of that race. Who knows, though. A bit of morning laziness could also just be a part of who Essential Quality is too with the class he's shown so far.

    Beyond his point about them, it's hard to gleam much from what we've seen in training since these are all good horses out there and good horses will usually look the part in their morning workouts. It can add confidence they've maintained their fitness and energy levels if you're on some of these, though. One less thing to worry about.
     
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  16. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Cheers, N. Hopefully everything is okay with you as well. Don't be shy to make a small play or two on Derby if you're interested. Maybe a distraction for a day from all the crap that's still going on.
     
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  17. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Big defection here with the expected pace setter out of the race;

     
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  18. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    If anyone is interested in the Oaks on Friday it's looking like a pretty good edition this year;




    I'm not sure how good of a betting race it'll be or anything, but this race has been seeing quite a few longshots win in recent years, so maybe a price will stand out somewhere. As an underneath type if playing exactas or tris perhaps.

    ==========

    PB;

    #10 EP - 69.3, LP - 60.5, SP - 73.0, TT - 53.9, MP - 72.9, EL - 67.6, DP - 71.6, ELD - 73.4, SF - 104.9, BT - 111.3, AC - 219.5, PP - 142.4, AVG - 93.4
    #12 EP - 69.8, LP - 58.3, SP - 71.9, TT - 55.9, MP - 72.4, EL - 66.0, DP - 71.3, ELD - 76.6, SF - 103.3, BT - 111.4, AC - 219.8, PP - 142.5, AVG - 93.3
    #6 EP - 66.4, LP - 57.7, SP - 69.8, TT - 56.6, MP - 70.6, EL - 63.9, DP - 68.5, ELD - 73.9, SF - 103.3, BT - 110.3, AC - 205.7, PP - 136.3, AVG - 90.3
    #5 EP - 67.5, LP - 55.2, SP - 68.8, TT - 54.1, MP - 68.8, EL - 63.6, DP - 68.6, ELD - 78.1, SF - 99.0, BT - 108.9, AC - 201.2, PP - 137.4, AVG - 89.3
    #3 EP - 64.4, LP - 58.3, SP - 69.1, TT - 56.4, MP - 69.8, EL - 63.3, DP - 67.2, ELD - 71.1, SF - 102.9, BT - 108.9, AC - 197.4, PP - 132.9, AVG - 88.5
    #8 EP - 67.8, LP - 54.3, SP - 68.4, TT - 54.0, MP - 68.4, EL - 63.2, DP - 68.5, ELD - 78.4, SF - 95.4, BT - 106.2, AC - 197.9, PP - 137.7, AVG - 88.4
    #14 EP - 69.6, LP - 53.0, SP - 68.5, TT - 54.3, MP - 68.6, EL - 63.2, DP - 69.5, ELD - 74.9, SF - 92.7, BT - 102.6, AC - 199.0, PP - 140.5, AVG - 88.0
    #4 EP - 63.7, LP - 57.5, SP - 68.3, TT - 57.3, MP - 69.2, EL - 62.3, DP - 66.4, ELD - 71.5, SF - 99.9, BT - 106.7, AC - 192.2, PP - 131.4, AVG - 87.2
    #7 EP - 71.3, LP - 50.0, SP - 67.5, TT - 52.0, MP - 66.9, EL - 62.9, DP - 69.9, ELD - 69.5, SF - 92.4, BT - 100.1, AC - 195.3, PP - 142.6, AVG - 86.7
    #9 EP - 65.3, LP - 53.5, SP - 66.7, TT - 54.5, MP - 66.8, EL - 61.5, DP - 66.4, ELD - 78.0, SF - 95.2, BT - 105.8, AC - 187.6, PP - 133.1, AVG - 86.2
    #1 EP - 64.0, LP - 56.8, SP - 68.0, TT - 52.8, MP - 67.6, EL - 63.2, DP - 66.4, ELD - 72.6, SF - 95.4, BT - 103.7, AC - 184.0, PP - 131.6, AVG - 85.5
    #11 EP - 63.6, LP - 54.6, SP - 66.4, TT - 53.9, MP - 66.4, EL - 61.5, DP - 65.5, ELD - 75.0, SF - 96.5, BT - 105.6, AC - 182.2, PP - 130.4, AVG - 85.1
    #2 EP - 64.5, LP - 53.4, SP - 66.1, TT - 55.2, MP - 66.5, EL - 60.8, DP - 65.7, ELD - 77.4, SF - 91.3, BT - 102.6, AC - 181.6, PP - 131.5, AVG - 84.7
    #13 EP - 64.8, LP - 52.4, SP - 65.6, TT - 54.9, MP - 65.9, EL - 60.4, DP - 65.6, ELD - 79.0, SF - 90.0, BT - 102.3, AC - 180.4, PP - 131.8, AVG - 84.4

    -----

    CE;

    #10 EP - 69.3, LP - 60.5, SP - 73.0, TT - 53.9, MP - 72.9, EL - 67.6, DP - 74.4, ELD - 73.4, SF - 104.9, BT - 102.1, AC - 223.3, PP - 148.8, AVG - 93.7
    #12 EP - 69.8, LP - 58.3, SP - 71.9, TT - 55.9, MP - 72.4, EL - 66.0, DP - 72.5, ELD - 76.6, SF - 103.3, BT - 104.2, AC - 220.3, PP - 146.4, AVG - 93.1
    #6 EP - 66.4, LP - 57.7, SP - 69.8, TT - 56.6, MP - 70.6, EL - 63.9, DP - 71.1, ELD - 73.9, SF - 103.3, BT - 101.9, AC - 211.0, PP - 143.1, AVG - 90.8
    #3 EP - 64.4, LP - 58.3, SP - 69.1, TT - 56.4, MP - 69.8, EL - 63.3, DP - 71.1, ELD - 71.1, SF - 102.9, BT - 99.5, AC - 207.2, PP - 142.3, AVG - 89.6
    #5 EP - 67.5, LP - 55.2, SP - 68.8, TT - 54.1, MP - 68.8, EL - 63.6, DP - 69.0, ELD - 78.1, SF - 99.0, BT - 103.9, AC - 199.6, PP - 139.2, AVG - 88.9
    #4 EP - 63.7, LP - 57.5, SP - 68.3, TT - 57.3, MP - 69.2, EL - 62.3, DP - 70.2, ELD - 71.5, SF - 99.9, BT - 98.6, AC - 203.2, PP - 140.8, AVG - 88.5
    #8 EP - 67.8, LP - 54.3, SP - 68.4, TT - 54.0, MP - 68.4, EL - 63.2, DP - 68.2, ELD - 78.4, SF - 95.4, BT - 102.8, AC - 194.9, PP - 138.0, AVG - 87.8
    #1 EP - 64.0, LP - 56.8, SP - 68.0, TT - 52.8, MP - 67.6, EL - 63.2, DP - 69.6, ELD - 72.6, SF - 95.4, BT - 97.8, AC - 192.3, PP - 138.6, AVG - 86.5
    #14 EP - 69.6, LP - 53.0, SP - 68.5, TT - 54.3, MP - 68.6, EL - 63.2, DP - 67.5, ELD - 74.9, SF - 92.7, BT - 98.7, AC - 188.4, PP - 137.4, AVG - 86.4
    #9 EP - 65.3, LP - 53.5, SP - 66.7, TT - 54.5, MP - 66.8, EL - 61.5, DP - 66.9, ELD - 78.0, SF - 95.2, BT - 102.3, AC - 188.0, PP - 135.0, AVG - 86.1
    #11 EP - 63.6, LP - 54.6, SP - 66.4, TT - 53.9, MP - 66.4, EL - 61.5, DP - 67.4, ELD - 75.0, SF - 96.5, BT - 100.3, AC - 186.6, PP - 135.2, AVG - 85.6
    #2 EP - 64.5, LP - 53.4, SP - 66.1, TT - 55.2, MP - 66.5, EL - 60.8, DP - 66.5, ELD - 77.4, SF - 91.3, BT - 100.3, AC - 185.1, PP - 134.3, AVG - 85.1
    #13 EP - 64.8, LP - 52.4, SP - 65.6, TT - 54.9, MP - 65.9, EL - 60.4, DP - 65.6, ELD - 79.0, SF - 90.0, BT - 101.1, AC - 181.6, PP - 132.9, AVG - 84.5
    #7 EP - 71.3, LP - 50.0, SP - 67.5, TT - 52.0, MP - 66.9, EL - 62.9, DP - 65.1, ELD - 69.5, SF - 92.4, BT - 94.0, AC - 169.5, PP - 133.4, AVG - 82.9

    ==========
     
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  19. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Post positions and morning line odds for the Derby;

     
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  20. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    Still deciding on my combos but been hearing a lot of people are betting big money on the 14 so will try to avoid that in combos being that he will go off at a absurd price. So far I’m liking the 15,7 a good amount and I like the 1s numbers but hate that he drew the inside. Bad history there. Will post some plays shortly.
     
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