Kentucky Derby and Beyond (Part Deuce)

Sharkey said:
Sorry guys. I'm just having a bit of fun. But it's kinda hard not to with this year's Derby being such a clown show. At least it finally went mainstream, though. :cool:

Oh, and the Preakness was drawn today with Medina Spirit is allowed to run. I do think we should let @BluntTrauma21 help us find the winner, though. In fact, he may have had a hand in the Derby frame job too considering he was all secretive about his selection process. ;)

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Haha I'm embarrassed to say b/c if you knew my method you would probably see something that I fucked so it doesn't make sense and you'd make me feel even dumber than you usually do lol.

Chad Brown gave me a syringe and told me to do it, I swear.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Haha I'm embarrassed to say b/c if you knew my method you would probably see something that I fucked so it doesn't make sense and you'd make me feel even dumber than you usually do lol.

Chad Brown gave me a syringe and told me to do it, I swear.
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Haha. Sorry bud. Yet here you were cashing on a Derby winner while the horse I picked finished up the track, so who really is the dumb one here, huh? :confused:

And I might just believe you too. o_O
 
@BluntTrauma21

You mentioned some patterns earlier in the thread, and for comparison's sake, I found this quite interesting.

Medina Spirit going into the Derby;

104-106-86 98 SPD
87-97-88 93 SPD
106-102-83 94 SPD
89-99-94 97 SPD
93-99-90 94 SPD

Elevated E2 figure going into the race, as well as basically pairing up his top final figures. Then, forgetting about the little bit of "help" he got which, considering his levels that came back were probably irrelevant to the way he ran, he goes out and runs a career best effort

-----

Concert Tour going into the Preakness;

104-108-77 95 SPD
86-90-98 95 SPD
85-96-87 97 SPD
96-102-87 94 SPD

Not an exact comparison between the two, but this guy is entering the race off a NPT (the 104 his last race was his highest yet), the elevated E2, as well as having literally paired up his last two races with room to improve it more.

I'm just wondering if maybe Medina Spirit topped out his last race because it was a big effort regardless. And if Concert Tour is now the one set to run a big one on Saturday?
 
Sharkey said:
@BluntTrauma21

You mentioned some patterns earlier in the thread, and for comparison's sake, I found this quite interesting.

Medina Spirit going into the Derby;

104-106-86 98 SPD
87-97-88 93 SPD
106-102-83 94 SPD
89-99-94 97 SPD
93-99-90 94 SPD

Elevated E2 figure going into the race, as well as basically pairing up his top final figures. Then, forgetting about the little bit of "help" he got which, considering his levels that came back were probably irrelevant to the way he ran, he goes out and runs a career best effort

-----

Concert Tour going into the Preakness;

104-108-77 95 SPD
86-90-98 95 SPD
85-96-87 97 SPD
96-102-87 94 SPD

Not an exact comparison between the two, but this guy is entering the race off a NPT (the 104 his last race was his highest yet), the elevated E2, as well as having literally paired up his last two races with room to improve it more.

I'm just wondering if maybe Medina Spirit topped out his last race because it was a big effort regardless. And if Concert Tour is now the one set to run a big one on Saturday?
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I'm picking up what you're throwing down, my friend. I think taking Medina rn as a favorite is probably not the way to go, as you've taught us we gotta find value on this stuff so Concert Tour is a nice look from what you're pointing out, no doubt.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
I'm picking up what you're throwing down, my friend. I think taking Medina rn as a favorite is probably not the way to go, as you've taught us we gotta find value on this stuff so Concert Tour is a nice look from what you're pointing out, no doubt.
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That's the way I'm leaning anyways, but Concert Tour really isn't going to be that great of a price himself unless the crowd somehow avoids betting on a Baffert horse because of the whole Derby controversy. Which I doubt. But he'll be the fresher of the two and I think he's also the naturally faster of the two, so the early lead could be his if they want it.

The value may be in the exacta, though, if Medina Spirit is a bit over the top. At least I'm hoping anyways. Just have to find a couple of decent off the pace types I'm thinking. Rombauer is interesting enough at his odds. Unbridled Honor is too somewhat. But we'll see.
 
I’m going to center my action around concert tour although a small sample
Size he has consistent high speed figures is fresh and came in the money 4/4 races. Going to pair him With a few longer shots and hope Medina spirit doesn’t take the race.
 
A ballpark idea of what kind of odds we could be looking at tomorrow (i.e. neither Baffert runner may go as favourite). Very interesting.



 
Midnight Bourbon is the pick, folks.

I've done plenty of research.

[ ] on Midnight Bourbon.
[x] with midnight bourbon.

Seriously, Medina Spirit is a great horse, but the scrutiny will be too great in the Preakness to pull any shenanigans. Midnight Bourbon has a great draw considering the amount of entries and the styles of the horses inside him.
 
Black Paladin said:
Midnight Bourbon is the pick, folks.

I've done plenty of research.

[ ] on Midnight Bourbon.
[x] with midnight bourbon.

Seriously, Medina Spirit is a great horse, but the scrutiny will be too great in the Preakness to pull any shenanigans. Midnight Bourbon has a great draw considering the amount of entries and the styles of the horses inside him.
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He'd be interesting to me if he was somewhere in the vicinity of his morning line, BP. In the 5/1 range or thereabouts. Unfortunately, based on those will pays up above, his odds look like they may end up being close to half of that and with a chance he's goes off favourite. He does seem a very logical choice, though, if you're liking him a little more than the other contenders who look around the same price.

I think I may end up taking a small flyer on Rombauer in the win spot, and then maybe playing him in 2nd behind some main contenders. But we'll see what the board is saying. I'm actually very interested in how the public sees this race and how their betting the Baffert runners in this one.

Best of luck to you today. And to anyone else who's playing the race.
 
Pimlico has been paying chalk/5 pretty much all day today through the first 9 races. Besides two which saw 7/2 and 4/1 winners. Not nearly as bad so far, but it reminds me a bit of a Preakness day a couple/few years ago when I think the favourites won pretty much everything and the average price per winner for all the races combined was something ridiculous like 6/5 or 7/5. Tough to make anything when they're paying like that.
 
I'm just going to take a small flyer on Rombauer and then play a straight Concert Tour over Rombauer exacta as well, which could pay out around 60/1 if a miracle happens and it somehow does hit.

I'm basically hoping Concert Tour gets a clear enough lead throughout, Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon get into it at the top of the stretch battling for 2nd, and then Rombauer surprises them both late to grab 2nd for himself.

Not a particularly interesting betting race, but trying something.
 
Sharkey said:
I'm just going to take a small flyer on Rombauer and then play a straight Concert Tour over Rombauer exacta as well, which could pay out around 60/1 if a miracle happens and it somehow does hit.

I'm basically hoping Concert Tour gets a clear enough lead throughout, Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon get into it at the top of the stretch battling for 2nd, and then Rombauer surprises them both late to grab 2nd for himself.

Not a particularly interesting betting race, but trying something.
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Boom? BOOM!
 
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